I am absolutely opposed to the idea of Taiwan declaring independence. It would be irresponsible for Taiwan to declare independence. The status quo, as bizarre as it is, has to be maintained. I do note it is not a standstill situation. China expands its military capabilities year after year with a singular focus on Taiwan. But Taiwan is no sitting duck either. It has pledges from both Japan and the US to enter the war if an invasion were to happen. Also, I don’t get the impression China is asking for a desolate landscape. Taiwan has an attractive chip industry that, if you destroy it, you have chaff in your hands.
The dictatorship of a party is different from the dictatorship of a person. Russia is one person, not that smart. He just wiped out 20 years of gain for the Russian economy. Smart? Not very.
Some people in America argue it is a two-party dictatorship. As in, corporations have both parties in their pockets. There is a money primary in America in which only a few tens of thousands of people vote. At one point China said to Hong Kong, okay, so you can have direct elections for the Chief Executive as long we decide who the two candidates will be.
What is being destroyed before our very eyes in Ukraine is the post-World War II order, financial, and political. Just like the League Of Nations made way for the United Nations, it might soon be time to reimagine the global order.
Russia has fully discredited itself. It can no longer be allowed veto power.
The US Congress shapes intellectual property laws and then expects the rest of the world to follow them. That is going beyond its jurisdiction. We need a global parliament. The Security Council should be elected. All global institutions from the Interpol, to the WTO, to the International Court, should be brought under the aegis of the to-be-formed global parliament.
The Soviet Communist Party might have collapsed around 1991, but the KGB changed clothes and kept ruling. The criminal syndicate that rules Russia are too many former KGB. It is now the KGB’s time to go.
NATO expansion did not trigger the Ukraine invasion. It is in the nature of autocracies to invade. The strongman needs the invasion to stay relevant domestically. I am never going to argue Ukraine needs to consult with Russia before it can join a global organization. Ukraine is sovereign. Having said that, if I were Ukraine, I would want to be neutral like Switzerland, a luxury it might have once the Putin regime has been thrown into the dustbins of history. The era of a democratically elected president Navalny might open up such possibilities.
Putin’s nuclear threats are to the entire world, and to the people of Moscow. Which way do you think the winds will blow? The old nuclear order has been smashed by Putin’s threats. A new order will have to be about every nuclear power pledging a no first use policy and a greater than 95% reduction in the arsenal of the largest nuclear powers.
Putin blocking the wheat exports from Ukrainian ports is a Putin directly attacking Africa and the world at large.
It is good to keep many channels of communication open. It is good to engage Putin. But peace will be that all Russian troops pull out of all Ukrainian territories, the war crimes are accounted for, and a referendum is organized under international supervision for the disputed areas. Consent, not conquest.
Putin also has to pay to rebuild Ukraine. He might have to foot a bill to the tune of $100 billion. But he has plenty of money. He has more money than Elon Musk.
But no peace is an argument for the continuation of the Putin regime. The Russian diaspora has to get organized, and the streets of Moscow have to be flooded with people all clamoring, Go Putin Go.
But right now we don’t even have the luxury to think of peace. This is not a war. This has been a brutal invasion. Putin is busy turning the Donbas region into a moon-like landscape. He needs to be stopped. The Ukrainians are braving it. They need to be assisted.
The streets of Moscow have immense power. The streets of Moscow could shatter glass in China and Saudi Arabia. China could feel the pressure for political reform. Saudi Arabia could become a republic. The smart monarchies in the Gulf will choose to become constitutional monarchies. The not-so-smart ones will pave the way for republics.