In eastern Ukraine, to seek only a military solution is dangerous. I admire the work of military strategists, intelligence officials, and governments who have stepped into supplying the needed hardware. Most of all I admire the brave men and women of the Ukrainian military who make the ultimate sacrifice daily. But we can never lose sight of the larger purpose and the higher ground. Ultimately this is about peace, liberty, and justice.
Eisenhower warned of the “military-industrial complex.” He was talking about the people who made trillions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Those same people see a trillion-dollar opportunity in Ukraine, which can not be. The political leadership can not outsource the war to that “military-industrial complex.” Because that would be to lose sight of the primary goal of this unfortunate war.
The sole focus can not be to outgun Putin. To try would be to fall into his trap. That is what he wants. That is what he understands. Perhaps Putin and Zelensky are not talking, but plenty of people are talking to Putin and should keep on talking. All global players who have Putin’s ears should step in and play a role to help deescalate. This war is already global. Look at the food crisis in Africa.
All countries directly impacted by the blockage of Ukraine’s wheat by Putin’s mines in the Black Sea should ramp up the pressure on Putin. This war is not about Donbas. This is about Putin wanting to stay in power for 20 more years. A dictator needs his wars for domestic reasons.
Scotland has the democratic right and option to break away from Britain. Ukraine should be willing to say it is ready for such an eventuality for Crimea and Donbas. That Russia might not reciprocate is not an issue. Russia is not a democracy. Ukraine is. This offer should be relentlessly made through all available channels. Conquest can not be allowed. But the people of Crimea and Donbas can, in an internationally organized referendum, choose to do the Scotland and Quebec thing. That should be Ukraine’s stand. The stand is the political option to push the Russian military out. There you up the pressure as much as possible. And that political campaign also weakens Putin militarily. Why do you want to go down the path of death and destruction when you can easily have the same through a referendum? People in his own camp will ask. And no matter how the Russian military steps out, that weakens the Putin regime in Moscow. The strongman starts looking like a strawman. The madman starts looking like the madman he is. And despite the referendum carrot, if he does not step back, that saps the morale of the Russian forces. That also weakens him militarily. A military defeat of Putin in Donbas becomes much more possible after you hit on the head relentlessly with this political solution.
The political solution has to be primary. The economic sanctions are secondary. The military solution has to be tertiary.
