2021快要结束了。这一年里，除去还没有结束的最后一周，沪深300有序撤退了-4.99%，可以说是稳中向好，打开了上升空间。同期，标普500无序增长了27.70%，呈现出帝国末日全面失控的凋敝景象。

到了年底的节骨眼上，又到了各家投行预测明年走势的吹牛皮时间。我看了下国外几个投行的2022 outlook。

先上数据

然后再看研报

Wells Fargo (下载)

富国预测项目挺多，包含了联储利率和黄金价格。

Assets classes perform well during higher-than-trend inflation: Commodities, US Mid Cap Equities, US Small Cap Equities

Unfavor on yield-sensitive assets, such as utilities sector. The Financials equity sector can bebefit from raising rates that typically generate expanding profit margins

Fed Fund Rate Forecast: 0.25-0.50%

Gold Price Forecast: $2,000~$2,100

BlackRock (下载)

权益方面，黑石看好成熟市场，债券方面，黑石建议继续超配ILB。

Prefer equities over fixed income and remain overweight inflation-linked bonds

Favor DM equities over EM

Barclays (下载)

巴克莱提到了虚拟货币的风险。

Equity: With the risks of inflation and yields skewed to the upside in the coming months, financials, energy, industrials and materials appear well positioned. Indeed, these sectors tend to benefit from strong cyclical momentum and have been positively correlated with yields and inflation

Bond: With rate hikes already largely priced in, medium-term bonds seem to offer the most value. Meanwhile, we would see any rates move beyond 2% in the US 10-year as unsustainable, and would consider such periods as opportunities to lock in rates.

Cryptocurrencies: There are many opportunities, but for most investors the risks are prohibitively high. The maximum historical drawdown is 80-90% and the recovery time is close to three years. Over the same period, global equities experienced drawdowns of up to 35% and much shorter recovery times.

JP Morgan (下载)

小摩看好美元。

U.S. Dollar We once again see the U.S. dollar as rich compared with most other currencies, with the notable exceptions of the Brazilian real and Mexican peso.

GS (下载)

高盛谈了一大堆有的没的，就是不给金股代码，急死个人。

CS (下载)

瑞信提到明年房产价格还会增长。债券方面提到了欧元区ILB

Bond: In general, we prefer to avoid duration risk. We favor Eurozone inflation-linked bonds and prefer senior loans due to their floating rate characteristics

Real Estate: We expect real estate investments to deliver positive mid-single-digit returns, benefiting from the historically low interest rate environment, as well as the continuing economic recovery. We favor sectors underpinned by secular growth drivers including logistics real estate, as pandemic-driven structural shifts persist.

RBC (下载)

RBC的研报，我看到Policy easing in China就不想看了。

Our confidence in above-trend growth in 2022 rests on four factors: Policy easing in China.

UBP (下载)

UBP谈了一些宏观的情况，中国这部分看着挺靠谱，UBP提到了2022年管理层还会有监管措施。

We believe the new era of heightened scrutiny is here to stay, and we are likely to see more measures in 2022 to fulfil regulatory objectives.

Merrill Lynch (下载)

没说啥，中规中矩，直接上图吧。

BofA

BofA比较草率，没找到pdf版本研报，数据都是从网上新闻里找的。我觉得比起预测，BofA显然还有更重要的事情，比如取消ACH outbound费!!!

最后讲讲今年的策略，今年下半年我把持有的SPY DOTM call option全部改成了DITM call option。虽然风险加大了，但是通过减少本金，基本维持了VaR不变，DITM选离到期日6~9个月的，在到期日还剩3个月时卖出，然后滚动换新的DTIM call option。因为在T<3m的时候，时间价值decay逐渐增加，不划算。另外这个策略要守住收益，还需要跑得快，一有风吹早动就要跑，跑路指标我主要看RSI(12,12,12)，跑错了，再RSI企稳再买回来，比较庆幸的是今年标普顶着Taper预期，通胀和Omicron一路上涨。这使我就算跑错了还有机会重新上车，明年不知道有没有这么好的运气。