One of the main theses of the Hedge Fund that I advise is that the value creation in technology within the Crypto market will eventually surpass the value creation in traditional markets. This scenario seems highly probable to me due to the competitive advantages offered by these new capital markets, which have demonstrated their capacity to finance large ventures by redefining the traditional stages of business financing.
The decision to focus investment on Crypto Assets more than six years ago was based on the belief that we were about to witness one of the greatest value creations in the history of markets. The data shows that the Crypto Assets market has grown from a capitalization of less than 100 billion to a current capitalization of over 2 trillion, having reached 3 trillion at the peak of the previous bull market and seeing up to 2.8 trillion in this one.
However, this value creation has so far been primarily concentrated in Bitcoin, which currently accounts for around 54% of the crypto market. This dominance was 85% in 2017. At present, there are 70 projects with valuations exceeding $1 billion, which leads us to conclude that the crypto market has created 70 unicorns, although some of them are again monetary or non-technological assets. Nonetheless, we have significant protocols that currently offer digital services generating billions in revenue.
How can we objectively verify whether this investment thesis is developing or if, on the contrary, this scenario is being invalidated as a possibility? A simple indicator that I believe would reflect the evolution of this scenario is to compare the 7 largest technology companies in the traditional world with the 7 largest-capitalization projects in the Crypto market that are technology projects (excluding monetary crypto assets, stablecoins, and other types of assets that may be issued that do not have a technological service component). The real objective is to analyze whether we are indeed witnessing the future Nasdaq or if, on the contrary, the value creation in this market is focused on assets unrelated to technology services.
It is not easy to draw this line, given that Bitcoin is certainly a technological phenomenon and is recently developing services on its own network that are approaching the functionality of smart contracts. However, we understand that fundamentally this asset should today be categorized mainly as a new Digital Gold or monetary asset.
If the capitalization of these Crypto projects were to reach the capitalization of the current top technology companies, our investment would multiply by 30. In such a scenario, Crypto funds would become the clear leaders in global profitability.
We will develop the foundations of this thesis, which would lead any company to be listed in Crypto markets to compete in the technology field. During this transition, we would begin to see companies or ETFs in traditional markets allowing indirect exposure to these Crypto markets. This is already happening in traditional markets, where we can invest in US technology companies through, for example, investment funds in each country, and many countries offer connectivity to these markets for international investors.
If this scenario unfolds, it will be gradual, and we can track it through such indicators. It is not an easy scenario; the current generation of technology companies has managed to adapt to rapid technology changes through acquisitions, and their financial and human resources currently provide a competitive advantage that is difficult to surpass. Nevertheless, we are facing one of the most significant challenges for this generation of technology companies, and if we review history, we will see that many of these monopolies have recurrently lost their position.
***Is this time different?***