随着俄乌战争，疫情等一系列黑天鹅事件的发生，我们愈来愈能感觉到自己正处于历史的分叉路口，本文将从宏观大背景聊到微观区块链投资机会而不是反过来，毕竟忽略大趋势聊细节没有任何意义。

一，消费结构与生产关系的巨变

我们将更注重于“精神”消费，数字经济的时代早已悄然而至。从消费开始注重“品牌价值”时，人们越来越在乎产品背后代表的精神和观念而不是产品本身。从爱马仕包和苹果手机，到网络课程与游戏皮肤，NFT等虚拟商品，一部分产品本身也在逐渐脱离物质，不断概念化，精神化。一方面当然是因为马斯洛需求，很多人吃饱穿暖后开始“没事找事”；而另一方面，则是由于互联网，手机，5G等基础设施的不断发展和普及，整个社会的信息堵塞点被不断打通，精神产品的成本迅速下降。

那么问题来了，这会导致什么现象发生？我认为人类社会的消费结构和生产关系将被重新定义。像王者荣耀和它的皮肤们这类最典型的精神产品有一个很大的特征，即生产完成之后边际成本几乎为零，比如游戏皮肤生产完之后，不管卖出一份和一万份，成本几乎是没有区别的，这又衍生出两个特点，首先是生产精神产品的风险巨大，成本均为一次性投入，中间不会有回水，就像电影拍完之后很可能没有人看，导致连本钱都收不回来；第二是可以被重复消费，需求理论上为无限，就像电影理论上可以被二刷三刷无限刷。

而这就意味着，从第一次工业革命时期开始的一系列生产制度与生产关系正在发生变革。对“精神产品”来说，公司制不再是最有效率的生产制度，区块链，智能合约与去中心化自治组织将重新定义生产关系。想象一下你是一个b站的up主，生产一个视频只需要一个美工，一个剪辑和一个主播（很多up主一开始都是身兼多职），在这里面最重要的环节是你头脑里的创意而不是其他，毕竟长期来看你的视频越有趣，流量就会越大，收入和潜在收入也会越多。没错，你只需要一个最小生产单位，甚至美工，剪辑和主播也可以外包，他们可以同时服务于多个up主，让生产成本继续降低。

二，从生产关系变化看世界格局

1，以美英为首的发达国家

以美英为首的发达国家第三产业占比高达70%～80%，它们正处于社会生产关系过渡的最前沿，这些发达国家的人们会比其他国家的人们更注重“精神产品”消费。结合上一段我们提到精神产品的两个衍生特点，这意味着在医药，科技等领域，资金链断裂是不可接受的，毕竟不管是医药还是游戏，它们前期都需要巨额的投入，那么在这次全球疫情和俄乌战争的大背景下，美联储针对输入性通胀导致的高通货膨胀采取加息策略造成的后果可想而知，在全世界资本回流美国这一过程结束后，必定会造成衰退，而这一现象又鲜明地映射在美国政治上：川建国 vs 民主党，这次美国中期选举的结果很直接的表明了美国民众的心理：即在民主党执政时期经济状况如此之差的情况下，大部分民众似乎更忌惮代表旧资产阶级利益的川建国再次坐上总统的位置。这么看来共和党需要一个新党魁才能胜出，而不管美国是否会选择继续逆全球化，在过去已经完成经济全球化进程，疫情和地缘政治的背景下，此时的经济发展已经不足以支撑其继续成为国家中的“调停者”。

2，处于尴尬境地的日本

日本的第三产业占比在50%左右，其社会生产关系过渡的进度条还在中间。伴随着长期的零利率和YCC政策，这个极度依赖资源进口的国家在此次输入性通胀的大环境下显得手无足措。日本央行在日元跌穿150之后救市仍然不能在根本上解决问题，它迟早要面临国债日元二选一的局面。而更要命的是日本的产业优势越来越小，前有韩国和美国的高科技夹击，后有中国的高端制造追击，这个问题显然不是货币政策能够单独解决的，当日本的优势产业被中韩赶超的时候，日本经济的崩盘将不可避免。

3，中国与中国人的矛盾

中国仍然处于发展中国家行列，供应链优势虽然帮助中国渡过疫情和俄乌战争的难关，但二十年来执着于土地财政的地方政府，内需不足依赖于出口的模式以及科技产业大幅落后的现状仍然是急需解决的难题。更重要的是，处于Z世代的中国人们正被迫经历“信息全球化与中国社会生产关系变革远未达到发达国家的程度”所带来的一系列社会矛盾，无论是内卷还是躺平的两难选择，还是民众心理问题激增的现象，无不反映了这些投射在了人们身上的现象。用通俗的话来讲，即“我们讨厌平台型公司的强权统治又不得不服从，渴望平等的未来却受迫于家庭传统观念与高居不下的房价”。中国在这场疫情大战中占尽优势，但中国人民还有很长的路要走。

4，欧洲

跳刀躲美肯，塔下意识粉，让我们在欢声笑语中打出gg。

三，区块链内

看完了大背景，相信读者或多或少都能明白区块链的意义在哪儿。在消费结构与生产关系仍未完全转型的大背景下，再加上极高的入场门槛，注定了区块链行业暂时是一个属于少数人的行业。而几乎无监管和自带金融属性的特征则表明该行业的波动将会比其他行业更为极端。

在FTX暴雷之后，圈内用户毫无疑问或者说不可避免地意识到了去中心化的重要性，但圈外用户在短期内却会更忌惮这个作恶成本极低的行业，“牛市”的到来将会更依赖于新资本的入场以及造富效应，而本来就极少的行业入口就显得更加难能可贵。

因此，短期我们需要关注“行业入口”，StepN的火爆是因为它简单且能赚钱，跟游戏和运动没有一点关系。Matic的背后有星巴克等大资本支撑，而Binance在干掉ftx之后也成为了交易端的统治者，像崩盘前Terra这样自带国民属性的新产品也值得关注；具备简单+能赚钱特质的新gamefi依然会在崩盘前有一波强势崛起；nft板块在牛市则会继续扮演“撸毛胜地”的角色；元宇宙和其他板块稍微凄惨点，只能炒概念。

而长期来看，我最喜欢的产品仍然是兼顾了安全性与可扩展性的cosmos，此次对2.0提案的否决也充分反映了其社区的去中心化程度，虽然当下受制于入口较少的问题生态难以起势，但随着每一次经历过牛熊沉淀下来人们不断意识到去中心化的重要性，越来越多的圈内资金将会往cosmos网络上迁移。

喜欢请关注我的twtter：欢迎大家一起交流分享

English Version

With a series of black swan events such as Russia-Ukraine war and epidemic, we can more and more feel that we are at the bifurcation of history. In this article, we will talk about the micro blockchain investment opportunities from the macro background rather than the other way around, after all, there is no point in ignoring the details of the major trends.

First, the huge change of consumption structure and production relationship

We will focus more on "spiritual" consumption, and the era of digital economy has arrived quietly. From consumption began to focus on "brand value", people increasingly care about the spirit and concept behind the product on behalf of the product rather than the product itself. From Hermes bags and Apple phones, to online courses and game skins, NFT and other virtual goods, part of the product itself is gradually detached from the material, constantly conceptualized and spiritualized. On the one hand, of course, because of Maslow's needs, many people began to "have nothing to do" after being fed and clothed; on the other hand, due to the continuous development and popularization of the Internet, cell phones, 5G and other infrastructure, the information blockage of the whole society is constantly opened up, and the cost of spiritual products is rapidly decreasing.

So the question arises, what phenomenon will this lead to? I think the consumption structure and production relationship of human society will be redefined. The most typical spiritual products like King of Glory and its skins have a great characteristic, that is, the marginal cost is almost zero after the production is finished, for example, after the game skin is produced, no matter selling one copy and 10,000 copies, the cost is almost no difference, which gives rise to two characteristics, first of all, the production of spiritual products is a huge risk, the cost is a one-time investment, and there will be no water in the middle, just like the movie is shot The second is that it can be repeatedly consumed, and the demand is theoretically infinite, just like a movie can theoretically be two brushes and three brushes infinitely.

This means that a series of production systems and production relations that began during the first industrial revolution are being changed. Blockchain, smart contracts and decentralized autonomous organizations will redefine production relations. Imagine you are a b-site up-owner, producing a video only requires one artist, one editor and one anchor (many up-owners are multi-tasking at first), in which the most important part is the creativity in your mind and nothing else, after all, the more interesting your video is in the long run, the more traffic will be, and the more income and potential income will be. That's right, you only need a minimum production unit, even the artwork, editing and anchoring can be outsourced and they can serve multiple up-hosts at the same time to keep production costs down.

Second, from the change of production relations to see the world pattern

1, the United States and Britain as the first developed countries

The tertiary industry in developed countries, led by the United States and Britain, accounts for 70% to 80%, and they are at the forefront of the transition of social production relations. Combined with the two derivative characteristics of spiritual products mentioned in the previous paragraph, this means that in the field of medicine, science and technology, the capital chain breakage is unacceptable, after all, whether it is medicine or games, they require huge investment in the early stage, then in the context of the global epidemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine, the Federal Reserve for the high inflation caused by imported inflation to take interest rate hike strategy caused by the consequences can be imagined, in the world After the process of capital flow back to the United States, it will definitely cause a recession, and this phenomenon is clearly mapped on the United States politics: Chuan vs Democrats, the results of the U.S. midterm elections is a direct indication of the psychology of the American people: that is, in the Democratic Party under the administration of the economic situation is so bad, most of the people seem to be more afraid of representing the interests of the old bourgeoisie Chuan again to sit in the presidency. So it seems that the Republican Party needs a new party leader to win, and whether the United States will choose to continue to reverse globalization, in the past has completed the process of economic globalization, the epidemic and geopolitical background, at this time the economic development is no longer enough to support its continued to be the "mediator" in the country.

2, Japan in an awkward situation

Japan's tertiary sector accounts for about 50% of the economy, and the progress bar of its social production relations transition is still in the middle. With a long-term zero interest rate and YCC policy, this country, which is extremely dependent on resource imports, appears to be helpless in this environment of imported inflation. The Bank of Japan bailout after the yen fell through 150 still can not solve the problem at the root, it will sooner or later face the situation of two choices of the national debt yen. And more damaging is Japan's industrial advantage is getting smaller and smaller, before the high-tech pinch of South Korea and the United States, followed by China's high-end manufacturing chase, the problem is obviously not monetary policy can be solved alone, when Japan's advantageous industries are overtaken by China and South Korea, the collapse of the Japanese economy will be inevitable.

3, the contradiction between China and the Chinese

China is still in the ranks of developing countries. Although the supply chain advantage has helped China survive the epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, the local government, which has been obsessed with land finance for two decades, the model of insufficient domestic demand relying on exports and the status quo of the technology industry lagging behind significantly are still problems that need to be solved urgently. More importantly, the Chinese people in Generation Z are forced to experience a series of social contradictions brought about by "the globalization of information and the transformation of social relations of production in China that are far from the level of developed countries", whether it is the dilemma of inward or flattening, or the surge of psychological problems of the people, all reflecting these phenomena projected on the people. The phenomenon of the people. In layman's terms, "we hate the power of platform companies but have to obey them, and we want an equal future but are forced by family traditions and high housing prices". China has the upper hand in this epidemic war, but the Chinese people still have a long way to go.

4, Europe

Jumping knife to avoid the Meccan, tower under the consciousness of the powder, let us play gg in the laughter.

Three, within the blockchain

After reading the general background, I believe the reader can more or less understand where the significance of the blockchain. Under the background that the consumption structure and production relationship are still not completely transformed, coupled with the extremely high entry threshold, the blockchain industry is destined to be an industry belonging to a few people for the time being. The characteristics of almost no regulation and self-contained financial attributes suggest that the volatility of the industry will be more extreme than other industries.

After the FTX thunderstorm, users inside the circle will undoubtedly or inevitably realize the importance of decentralization, but users outside the circle will be more afraid of this industry with extremely low cost of doing evil in the short term, and the arrival of the "bull market" will be more dependent on the entry of new capital and the effect of wealth creation, while the entrance to the industry, which is already very small, will be even more The entrance to the industry is rare and valuable.

Matic is backed by big capital such as Starbucks, Binance has become the ruler of the trading side after taking out ftx, and new products like Terra, which had a national profile before the crash, have become the most popular. Such new products with national attributes are also worthy of attention; new gamefi with simple + can make money qualities will still have a wave of strong rise before the crash; nft board in the bull market will continue to play the role of "jerk hair resort"; meta-universe and other boards a little miserable, only speculation concept.

In the long run, my favorite product is still cosmos, which takes into account security and scalability. The rejection of the 2.0 proposal also fully reflects the degree of decentralization of its community, although at the moment it is difficult for the ecology to take off due to the problem of fewer entrances, but as people continue to realize the importance of decentralization after each bull and bear experience, more and more money in the circle will move to the cosmos network to migrate.