The scariest chart no one wants to look at, might be one of the simplest. Instead of looking at ROI from the market cycle bottom or halving’s, shunning the thought we’ve already hit the market peak, twice. What if those two previous ATH’s in 2021 were indicative of this cycle’s peak, leaving the rest of the market cycle to play out in favor of the bears? Clearly, until future ticks are printed, it’s too early to tell where we are in the cycle. And I’m myself personally not yet in agreement that the cycle peak has indeed come in. Either way, I’m considering all possibilities. I don’t want to be naively surprised, nor liquidated, in the case it’s true.

If we are in the bear market, and the ATH market cycle peak was at 69k, we have long days ahead of use.

One optimistic view of note is the fact that from the ATH, effort required to go down is less than it is to go up, especially when there’s so much fear in the market around COVID-19, China’s property bubble, inflation and other questions of monetary policy in the USA and abroad. The ATH was only 30 days ago on November 10, 2021. Should we be surprised by a pull-back lasting 30 days? We can look into that question in the next article.

As a side note on Microstrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), which is essentially a leveraged long-play on Bitcoin (BTC) that’s accessible to anyone with a access to the NASDAQ. Holding 120,000+ BTC on their balance sheet and continuing to buy quarter-in and quarter-out, apparently irrelevant of the short-term price movements. How do you interpret these options trades? I’m honestly still just starting to wrap my head around them.

Full disclosure: I’m personally long BTC and MSTR at the time of this articles publication.