Gone fishin’
Trapped between a rock and a hard spot, as IntoTheCryptoVerse’s Ben Cowen calls it, the place we are in now is only pleasant for those who actually enjoy volatility. Riding under the Bull Market Support bands - the 20w sma and 21w ema - the sentiment is-expectedly bearish. Smart money, as they say, “the 1%”, are surely happy, but the rest, just keep waiting for the rocket engines to reignite. There is an old saying around the poker table though which comes to mind. “When you sit at the table and you can’t spot the fish, it’s gotta be you!”
The countdown to blast off is always ticking away. Whether we feel we’ve made it to the moon or only prepared ourselves for another smash against the dark hard packed earth depends on when exactly we bought-in to the launch. Did you get in at the right time? How ready are you now?
Prepared for the inevitable
Simply put, don’t buy-in to the FOMO. Market makers are never making market’s according to their emotions. If they do, they won’t last long, and you know it. The cortisone levels in your blood tell you so! Stress kills. Destruction is like acid rain to healthy returns and healthly bodies in equal proportion. What’s the antidote?
Set your buy-limits! Dollar cost average in as the market falls. Forget about ‘red’ being bad. Change your color preferences and buy when everyone else is selling!
Walls of support
On the downside, the famous FIB golden pocket indicates market cycle support at 41k, with the low-side target of 35k. Holding these levels will be absolutely critical to holding true to historical BTC cycle models, which prove that BTC never returns to previous cycle all-time-high’s (ATH) after passing them in the on-going cycle. 35k is well above 20k, even if the truth is no average BTC investor would straight prefer a heart-attack over even a simple wick at the 35k levels. It just hurts way too much.
If you don’t have free cash in hand right now, or safe margin capacity to borrow, perhaps you should spend the next week asking yourself why? Suffering is not the only path to pleasure. You’re stuck, like a rock in a hard place. Sorry! Understand this much, and hopefully next opportunity, you’ll trust that little angel on your shoulder and take some profits when the opportunities are ripe. It might be a while though, so in the mean time, consider what options you have.
If you are accumulating, and generally just dollar cost averaging over the long-term (multi-cycle holding times), stop-losses are counter-productive. You are excited by the pull-backs. HODL! If you are trading though…
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Set-stop losses. It’s better to stop-out at a profit, or small loss, and risk FOMO loses when the market turns right at or near your stop-out, than it is to hold those loses which you know eventually can sour into liquidation. This way, you have cash in hand for setting your next buy-in limit orders to catch better prices when the bears continue their spring feasts.
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Set limit buy-limit orders. Not only do you contribute to building a ‘wall of support’ in the order book, but you increase the probability that you make profits in the future when after the dump, we get the inevitable pump. There’s nothing better… Don’t try to get lucky. Make the natural market movement a friend!
Be smart-money
Depending on your risk levels, and mastery of meditation and emotional self-control, finding the right levels of support to buy-in at is the only real question remaining. We know the price will fall, eventually. Do we wait for it to fall back 80%? 50%? 20%? Can’t decide? Forget about it! Here are your levels for this week. Split your available cash into at least 3, up to 4 separate limit-buy orders and join in defending the onslaught of the bears!
48,000 - Previous pump resistance level turned support. Bull’s “hopium” level.
47,000 - Bull Market Support Bearish Bottom. Level of last resort!
41,000 - FIB golden pocket top level support. Previous dump support level.
35,000 - FIB golden pocket bottom level support
Bearish, if we get there
If we don’t hold the 47-48k line, we’re going in for a test of the golden pocket. It should NOT surprise us if in the coming weeks or months we are trading again in the golden pocket area. If it comes to pass, it’ll be a struggle that’ll knock many of the weaker of us out of the business. Sad, but true. You can only blame yourself. Market makers want to burn your position, it’s how they make money, when you lose. You know damn well that right when you capitulate, finally, after weeks of suffering, is when the market will turn and recover lost ground. Don’t be a fish!
That said, the majority don’t want this situation to pass. Neither do I. My portfolio has also been hemorrhaging bitterly for weeks. I’m over leveraged and realizing loses all the way down. But i’ll be there at the bottom, and I’ll smile again as I take my profits, in the end. The cycle of life continues on another round.
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