BTC is Fairly Bullish

While looking at the charts since bouncing off ~69k back in early November, heat rising from to my temples, I ask myself “are we in a bear market, or not?” Today, I have drawn my conclusion,

NO.

Local bear trend, maybe. Macro-level, the bull continues to chase his tail

We can say that the line in the sand represents Bitcoin’s (BTC) ‘Fair Value’. In the chart posted above, we see it sits just under 37k on Dec 17, 2021.

I take the mid point between log regression FIB .382 and FIB .2361 lines, using parameters to a log regression formula that fits INDEX:BTCUSD well through 2011.

Fitting down the middle almost perfectly on the daily time-frame, nearly half of BTC’s days trading since genesis have been trading at prices above the line and half the days below.

January 2015, November 2018, September 2019, and at a few other points in time before that we failed to hold the fair value line and fell through into extended bear markets.

With a uncomfortably thing margin we skipped atop the fair value line back in July 2021 when the previous local bear scare brought us down ~50% from all time highs of 60–65k to around 30k. We held the line. I remember those days very well. Where were you?

At the moment we have about 25% margin below us yet still, if my calculations are correct, let’s say. The bulls can’t rest easy. That can get filled in weeks time.

Arbitrarily, admittedly, if we go by the previous two longer bull sessions 2013 to 2015 and early 2017 to late 2018 we might expect another 100ish days at least remaining in the bull cycle.

Ultimately, it is simply a line though. Impossible to know. Inevitable to find out… So, let’s see.

-calmrat