编者按：转自红星新闻约稿，邀何律师一道，以红星观察员身份，一起开始连载**《穿越2024大选之前的美国》**系列，可点击访问原文《穿越2024大选之前的美国②丨连续41个月物价上涨，苦中作乐的选民将如何选择》。

本文为作者补充细节扩展阅读，不一定适合媒体报道，权以轻松阅读。

Editor's Note: Reprinted from an invitation for a contribution by Red Star News. Lawyer He is invited to start a serialized series titled "The United States Before the 2024 Election" as a Red Star observer. You can click to access the original article "The United States Before the 2024 Election ②丨 With 41 consecutive months of rising prices, how will voters, who are making the best of a bad situation, choose".

This article is an extended reading by the author to supplement details and may not be suitable for media reporting. It is only for light reading.

流浪汉的歌谣和劣酒——粗观美国消费与大选

"Tramp Songs and Cheap Liquor: A Rough Look at American Consumption and the Election"

文 邱嘉秋

By Qiu Jiaqiu

赶上了 Just in Time

此次赴美正值第79届联大高级别会议周期间，到了纽约，感觉曼哈顿这方寸之地在这一周好像挤满了整个地球的人。

其推高的房价令人嗔目：会议周期间，遍寻整个曼哈顿地区，就找不到哪怕一间低于每晚折合4000元人民币的单人间，不论酒店或民宿，无论什么平台。这样的单人间，其实面积狭小，洗手间连门都没有。

几个平台里，也只唯有一家以昏暗的霓虹灯为酒店唯一一张介绍照片的酒店，还孤零零的留在线上无人问津。

This trip to the United States happened to be during the high - level week of the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly. When I arrived in New York, it felt like this tiny place of Manhattan was crowded with people from all over the world during this week.

The soaring housing prices were astonishing: During the conference week, searching throughout the Manhattan area, it was impossible to find a single - room accommodation priced lower than 4,000 yuan per night, regardless of hotels or homestays, and regardless of the platform.

Such single - room accommodations were actually small, and the bathrooms didn't even have doors.Among several platforms, there was only one hotel with a dim neon light as its only promotional photo left online, ignored by everyone.

惊讶之余，联大工作人员告诉我除了开会、整体消费上涨，纽约部分酒店此前被改建为移民收容所，减少了供给，也是原因之一。

纽约会开完赶去哈佛大学，心想总算就好了吧？

To my surprise, a staff member of the United Nations General Assembly told me that in addition to the conference, the overall consumption had risen, and some hotels in New York had been converted into immigrant shelters previously, reducing the supply, which was also one of the reasons.

After the conference in New York, I rushed to Harvard University, thinking it would be better there, right?

大错特错。

在哈佛大学和麻省理工学院等所在的波士顿剑桥区和中心市区，洋溢着一样“欣欣向荣”的景象，我甚至看到了一些普普通通的房间达到了每晚8000元人民币。

在校的老师朋友告诉我，可能是因为近期哈佛开校友会。果然，全球最高学府，会被认为愿意返校庆祝的毕业生，其消费理应匹配同样高度。

Wrong.

In the Cambridge area and central urban area of Boston, where Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology are located, there was the same "prosperous" scene. I even saw some ordinary rooms priced at 8,000 yuan per night.

A teacher - friend at the school told me that it might be because of the recent Harvard alumni reunion. Sure enough, for the world's top university, the consumption of graduates willing to return for celebration should match the same high level.

排除一切巧合与波动，即使在中部农业州的肯塔基、俄亥俄州等地，看到的常规房间房租也要1到2000人民币每晚。以上的房价，无不比我多年前来美国的消费有了大幅的飙升。

可能唯一治愈我的是在美利坚的首都华盛顿特区，条件与位置卓越的酒店，竟然只要800人民币一晚，停车也不过20美元一天。不禁令人啼笑，这算一种“行政补贴”的反向调节么？

Excluding all coincidences and fluctuations, even in the central agricultural states such as Kentucky and Ohio, the rent for regular rooms is 1,000 to 2,000 yuan per night. The housing prices mentioned above have all risen significantly compared to my consumption in the United States many years ago.

Perhaps the only thing that comforted me was that in Washington, D.C., the capital of the United States, an excellent - condition and well - located hotel was only 800 yuan per night, and parking was only 20 dollars per day. It's kind of ironic. Is this a kind of "administrative subsidy" reverse regulation?

摇摇晃晃的Beer The Swaying Beer

外来客的房租不过就是消费现象的冰山一角。

事实上，纽约为例，其CPI连月按照2-3的百分点上涨，能源和住房成本主因，食品和饮料也是主要通胀主要因素。纽约人寿保险公司（New York Life）的“财富观察”（Wealth Watch）调查显示，与一年前相比，平均61%的美国人在食品杂货和外出就餐上的支出有所增加，这些类别的成本平均每月上涨209.45美元。

这一次，在肯德基上校的家乡，美国中部的肯塔基州，我开车路过加油站的超市，拎出贴着黄色价钱，即为2.12美元的听装啤酒，想象着晚些时候到了伊丽莎白镇的汽车旅馆，窗外无垠的农田为伴，感受本土麦芽发酵后的复杂口感。

The rent for outsiders is just the tip of the iceberg of consumption phenomena.

In fact, taking New York as an example, its CPI has been rising by 2 - 3 percentage points month by month, mainly due to energy and housing costs, and food and beverages are also major factors of inflation. A survey by the "Wealth Watch" of New York Life Insurance Company shows that, compared with a year ago, 61% of Americans have increased their spending on groceries and dining out, and the costs in these categories have risen by an average of $209.45 per month.

This time, in Kentucky, the hometown of Colonel Sanders of KFC, in the central United States, I drove past a supermarket at a gas station and picked up a can of beer with a yellow price tag of $2.12. I imagined arriving at the motel in Elizabethtown later, with the endless farmland outside the window, and feeling the complex taste of locally - fermented malt.

电影《楚门的世界》中，楚门的“好友”马龙经常带着啤酒出现，这是“友谊”的象征和缓解情绪的道具，也是广告的植入。当然，真相大白之日，这种虚假的友谊和慰藉便瞬间崩塌。

在最近的 NBA 球场上，克利夫兰骑士队的啤酒价格为 5.91 美元，俄克拉荷马雷霆队的啤酒价格为 6.84 美元，波士顿凯尔特人队则大胆地以 20.32 美元的价格出售 16 盎司的啤酒。

最终，全美NBA赛场啤酒的平均价格为12.57 美元，全美普通消费500毫升的美国产瓶装啤酒平均价格约为 1.97 美元，酒吧里生啤平均价格则约为 5.81 美元。

最终，对于我这样的酒精爱好者，在摇摆州也从未喝得摇摇晃晃过。

In the movie "The Truman Show", Marlon, Truman's "friend", often appears with beer, which is a symbol of "friendship", a prop to relieve emotions, and also an advertisement implant. Of course, when the truth is revealed, this false friendship and comfort collapse instantly.

On recent NBA courts, the price of beer for the Cleveland Cavaliers is $5.91, for the Oklahoma City Thunder is $6.84, and the Boston Celtics boldly sell 16 - ounce beer for $20.32.Finally, the average price of beer in NBA arenas across the United States is $12.57. The average price of a 500 - ml American - made bottled beer for ordinary consumption in the United States is about $1.97, and the average price of draft beer in bars is about $5.81.

Finally, for an alcohol lover like me, I have never been drunk in the swing states.

美国选民关心什么？当然不是国际大事 What Do American Voters Care About? Certainly Not International Affairs

据《华盛顿邮报》等，在美国，24包方便面价格从 2019 年的 5.22 美元上涨到 2024 年的 7.63 美元，涨幅高达 46%。网络上看到未经证实，美国坦普尔城一川菜馆老板称，蒜苗从以前一箱 15 美元涨到 30 美元，菜籽油从一桶 18 美元涨到 40 美元。2022 年，高露洁公开推出定价 10 美元的高端牙膏，被视为该公司抬高产品定价能力的重要产品。

美国三大信用报告机构之一全联（TransUnion）的高级副总裁兼全球研究与咨询主管查理·怀斯表示，越来越多的美国消费者拖欠还款 。

生活成本危机让美国的中低收入人群陷入困境，今年4月的民调显示，仅有27%的美国低收入家庭表示他们生活还过得去。

According to the Washington Post, etc., in the United States, the price of a 24 - pack of instant noodles has risen from $5.22 in 2019 to $7.63 in 2024, a 46% increase. According to unconfirmed information on the Internet, the owner of a Sichuan - style restaurant in Temple City, the United States, said that the price of a box of garlic sprouts has risen from $15 to $30, and the price of a barrel of rapeseed oil has risen from $18 to $40. In 2022, Colgate publicly launched a high - end toothpaste priced at $10, which is regarded as an important product for the company to raise its pricing power.

Charlie Wise, senior vice - president and global research and consulting director of TransUnion, one of the three major credit reporting agencies in the United States, said that more and more American consumers are defaulting on payments.

The cost - of - living crisis has plunged middle - and low - income Americans into hardship. A poll in April this year showed that only 27% of low - income American families said they were living well.

在我这次开车经过俄亥俄州的马斯金格姆县时，想到最近NYT的文章《代顿诉耶鲁》。文章提到，20 世纪60 年代美国的活力让民主党认为，典型的选民年轻且受过高等教育，比如，一位 24 岁的耶鲁大学政治学讲师，事实上，典型的选民就像一位住在俄亥俄州代顿市郊区的 47 岁女性，她没有大学学位，丈夫是一名机械师。

这位代顿选民本不贫穷，但她在不断上升的通胀中苦苦挣扎。当时的她，开始担心犯罪、学生抗议和吸毒问题。她对越战感到矛盾。她是一个“普通人”，长期以来一直投票支持民主党，但对该党向左转感到不舒服，有了新的选择可能。著书的民主党作者在1970年写道，除非民主党改变路线，“否则我们很可能会看到共和党总统在白宫执政。”

根据益普索的近期民调结果，50%的美国受访者表示生活成本是他们最关心的问题，24%的受访者认为2024年总统选举中最重要的问题是物价和通货膨胀，13%则选择了就业和经济，超过了移民、医保、堕胎、民权等一系列传统议题。

在哈佛大学针对年轻选民的近期调查中，也有超过四分之一认为经济是下一任总统必须最先面对的问题。许多中低收入的非裔年轻人因在疫后复苏期间深受通胀之苦，正在逐渐转向特朗普和共和党阵营。

正如斯卡蒙和瓦滕伯格所说，社会阶层比种族或年龄更能预测一个人的投票结果。

书中说：四年前，哈里斯采取了非常自由主义的立场，但现在她改变了立场，比如移民方面，她的广告称她为'边境州检察官”。同时，哈利斯开始强调爱国主义和经济民粹主义。

When I drove through Muskingum County, Ohio this time, I thought of a recent NYT article "Dayton v. Yale". The article mentioned that the vitality of the United States in the 1960s made the Democratic Party believe that a typical voter was young and highly educated. For example, a 24 - year - old political science lecturer at Yale University. In fact, a typical voter is like a 47 - year - old woman living in the suburbs of Dayton, Ohio. She has no college degree, and her husband is a mechanic.

This Dayton voter was not poor, but she is struggling with rising inflation. At that time, she began to worry about crime, student protests, and drug use. She was ambivalent about the Vietnam War. She is an "ordinary person" who has long voted for the Democratic Party but is uncomfortable with the party's shift to the left and may have new choices. A Democratic author who wrote a book wrote in 1970 that unless the Democratic Party changes its course, "we are likely to see a Republican president in the White House."

According to a recent Ipsos poll, 50% of American respondents said that the cost of living is their most concerned issue, 24% of respondents believe that prices and inflation are the most important issues in the 2024 presidential election, and 13% chose employment and the economy, surpassing a series of traditional issues such as immigration, health care, abortion, and civil rights.

In a recent survey of young voters by Harvard University, more than a quarter also believe that the economy is the issue that the next president must face first. Many middle - and low - income African - American young people, who have suffered from inflation during the post - pandemic recovery, are gradually turning to Trump and the Republican camp.

As Scammon and Wattenberg said, social class is a better predictor of a person's voting outcome than race or age.

The book said: Four years ago, Harris took a very liberal position, but now she has changed her position. For example, in terms of immigration, her advertisement calls her a "border - state prosecutor". At the same time, Harris has begun to emphasize patriotism and economic populism.

园丁的抉择 The Gardener's Choice

据网络信息统计，美国人民已经连续41个月经历物价上涨，经济原因让中产萎缩，让阶层发成内在结构性变化。

在普遍现象外，还让我想起一位匹兹堡的园丁。

据定居在匹兹堡的师姐说，这园丁为她家的庭院提供服务，是一位非常聪明的人，他在攒钱准备去考匹兹堡大学、卡耐基梅隆大学这样宾州顶级学府的研究生，而他的本科则选择了性价比很高的线上大学。在他的计划里，他要学习国际法硕士专业，之后带着孩子离开美国，去往欧洲。

According to online statistics, the American people have experienced rising prices for 41 consecutive months. Economic reasons have led to the shrinking of the middle class and internal structural changes in social classes.

Besides the general phenomenon, I also remember a gardener in Pittsburgh.

According to my senior sister who settled in Pittsburgh, this gardener provides services for her courtyard. He is a very intelligent person. He is saving money to take the postgraduate entrance examination of top universities in Pennsylvania such as the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University. For his undergraduate studies, he chose an online university with high cost - performance. In his plan, he wants to study international law at the master's level and then leave the United States with his children and go to Europe.

如果有机会，我愿意分享三个月我去到的欧洲，其物价上涨和通胀的程度远远高于美国，荷兰少数地区甚至到达了两、三倍，而经济历来稳健的德国，也物价上升接近一倍。

要知道2019年我在德国，只会买2欧元以下的美味红酒。

如今，这个价格线被迫提升到了3.5欧。

If I have the chance, I would like to share my three - month trip to Europe. The degree of rising prices and inflation there is far higher than that in the United States. In a few areas of the Netherlands, it has even reached two or three times, and in Germany, which has always had a stable economy, prices have also risen nearly by double.

You know, in 2019, in Germany, I would only buy delicious red wine priced below 2 euros.

Now, this price line has been forced to rise to 3.5 euros.

在我此行最后抵达的肯塔基州伊丽莎白镇，曾有一部同名电影**《伊丽莎白镇》**取材于此。

其中，有一首配乐名为**《Sugar Blue 苦中作乐》**，歌词摘选是这样的：

In Elizabethtown, Kentucky, where I arrived at the end of this trip, a movie named "Elizabethtown" was filmed here.There is a soundtrack named "Sugar Blue Making the Best of a Bad Situation", and the selected lyrics are as follows:

Hobo songs and railroad gin

流浪汉的歌谣和劣酒

Alcohol evaporates through skin

酒精穿过皮肤蒸发

One gift

只有一个天赋

Sugar blue

苦中作乐

Holding darkness up to the light

举起黑暗迎向光明

The other side shows through

另一边的景象透过来

The raven's song it breaks the night

乌鸦的歌声划破黑夜

And I rise from me through broken hues

我穿过破碎的雾霭

Going nowhere's somewhere's song

一事无成的我和我的歌谣

Finding right in what went wrong

在颠倒的世界找寻真理

One gift sugar blue

我只能苦中作乐

Sugar blue

苦中作乐