“In December 2021, the Shanghai Stock Exchange began to fall when it reached more than 3700 points… We don’t rule out that this high point will dominate the next 12 months… This low point is a little lower than 3200 points, and the most extreme case is 3000.”

Hong Hao pointed out several key economic trends contained in the current live broadcast of sina. For investors who have not yet seen the 2022 market, it is undoubtedly of great significance. Those who haven’t watched the live broadcast can click here to watch the replay!

As a very “head iron” forecaster, Hong Hao’s judgment is always different from the market. Because of this, when he is retrograde at high speed in the capital market, it is a very terrible thing - if he is right, the person who is retrograde is actually you!

And we can always find the correctness of Hong Hao at the critical moment by checking his past prediction results! This gives us a reason to learn from President Hong: the premise of becoming a traitor is to have a set in hand!

Hong Hao continued to share his investment strategy with you in the live column “Hong Hao’s China market strategy” of sina finance. For ordinary investors, following the master and continuous learning is the only way to get close to the master. Therefore, we especially suggest you click here to subscribe to this column!

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The following is a selection of the live broadcast content. Please click here to watch the full version of the live broadcast!

Question: what impact does the US stock market adjustment have on us?

Hong Hao: let me talk about US stocks first.

This picture (click back to the live broadcast to see the complete picture) is a picture taken out of the “vigilance” Outlook report I issued last November. This picture has a very high gold content. This picture is a picture that we remind you of the risks of US stocks.

This is the rate of return of actual earnings per share, which is equivalent to the concept that rent is higher than house price, but we deal with inflation here, which is the rate of return of actual earnings.

Now the return on investment in US stocks has basically returned to the lowest level in history.

Last August was just the time of the Black Monday crash in October 1987, which was even lower than it.

March of 2000 is the level of the Internet bubble, September 2008, after Lehman bankruptcy level.

The actual rate of return we saw in November is actually lower than that achieved in the previous three significant pullbacks, that is to say, US stocks are very expensive, resulting in a very low rate of return.

This rate of return has only appeared twice in history, once in the 1973 oil crisis.

Another was when Paul Volcker sharply raised the Fed’s interest rate in 1980 and 1981 to subdue inflation.

Every time the real rate of return reaches such a low level or lower in history, we see a huge market callback.

In 1973 and 1974, the United States fell by 50%, 25% a day in 1987, 50% after March 2000 and 50% after the collapse of Lehman in September 2008.

Now we see the correction of US stocks. Its expensive degree does not match the historical background it is facing now, and the extent of its correction.

If you want to ask me, if it matches, it should be a callback of 40% or higher. In this position, it corresponds to a callback of 40% or higher.

Of course, going down doesn’t mean going down in a straight line. It usually falls a little and rebounds a little, but its rebound high point is constantly decreasing. This is the time to attract our attention because the trend of its operation has changed.

It’s so expensive. Politely speaking, the risk is far greater than the opportunity, or you are full of U.S. stocks in such a high position. I believe you can’t sleep. I believe many people can’t sleep.

That’s why when I casually sent a motion picture on my microblog to tease us stocks, I scolded all kinds of very impolite.

In fact, everyone knows very well that because the position is too heavy, it will lead to abnormal behavior and language. Don’t do this.

If the position is too heavy, you can reduce it until you are comfortable. It is better to make less money than lose.

The risk is so great now.

So, if you want to ask me about US stocks, I think the risk is greater than the opportunity. This is the first point.

Second, how does it affect our offshore stocks and zhonggai stocks?

……

You asked me if I would talk about the impact of the correction of US stocks. It must be, because after all, zhonggai Internet is still listed overseas. Therefore, it is inevitable that it will not be affected by it when it fluctuates overseas.

However, if you have traded in the market in 2008, you should remember that from September to November 2008, our Chinese market gradually bottomed out, and the US stock market did not bottomed out until March 2009, that is to say, we bottomed out about 3 to 6 months in advance.

At that time, although we didn’t set a new high and our fluctuations were very large, we didn’t set a new low.

In November 2008, it seemed that one day it began to rebound when it fell to 1600 points, but US stocks continued to fall.

So, do you think it will affect Chinese stocks?

It certainly will, because it will affect you from people’s emotions and various channels.

But you said that if it fell by 50%, will our Chinese stock fall by 50%. This probability is very small, very small, or the probability of Chinese stock winning is very, very large.

So don’t belittle yourself.

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During this live broadcast, Mr. Hong Hao was full of dry goods. During the 1-hour live broadcast, Mr. Hong Hao made a detailed analysis of the main contradictions in the current market and made a reasonable prediction of the future trend, allowing investors to enjoy a feast of investment knowledge. For more highlights, you can watch the replay.

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