The city of Bahmat in the east of Ukraine is not large, with a population of about 70,000. Given the intense and prolonged fighting that began in the summer of last year over this city, the city’s failure has symbolic significance for the Russian-Ukrainian strategy. On Friday, 5 May, the local time of the founder of the Russian Wagner mercenaries group, Yevgenny Prigzin, suddenly announced that the Wagner forces would leave Bahmutt on 10 May and that the Bahmuth position would be handed over to the Russian Ministry of Defence forces. “We have an obligation to hand over the positions in the city of Bahmutt to the forces of the Ministry of Defence (Russian Federation) on 10 May 2023 and to withdraw the remaining forces in Wagner to the logistics camp in order to burn them.” Prigozin stated in his statement.

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Prigozin threatened to withdraw:

Is there a recurrence of the dispute between Vagnana and the Russian Ministry of Defence?

The Wagner mercenaries, the Russian occupier and master of Bahmat, continued to expand their positions to move forward, even after heavy casualties. Three weeks ago in Prigozin, it was claimed that the Wagner mercenaries had occupied more than 80 per cent of the territory of Bakhmouth, but that the Ukrainian guard had not abandoned and remained in constant combat.

In a video published on 5 May in the social media, Prigozin was removed from a platoon body, claiming that the dead were the Wagner fighters who had died in the struggle against Bahmutt. Prigozin also stated in video that the Minister of Defence of Russia, Saïgou, and the Chief of General Staff, Glassimov, were responsible for their deaths.

“Our ammunition gap is as high as 70 per cent. Shoigu! Grameenov!

In February this year, there were similar complaints in Prigozin. He claimed that there was a shortage of ammunition and threatened to withdraw from Bahmutt, but he did not say so before about the date of withdrawal and that the controversy was quickly calm.

It was analysed that the re-issuance of the Bahmutt Declaration by Prigozin meant another outbreak of the dispute between Vagner and the Russian Ministry of Defence, revealing tensions within the Russian side and putting into question the inadequacy of Russian weapons stockpiles.

Military analysts in Ukraine:

It may be “infrauded urgents in dress”

On the occasion of the statement by Prigozin, the Russian-Unian conflict is at a critical juncture. The long-standing large-scale anti-attacks of Ukrainian forces have been archived after a winter preparation and the replenishment of large-scale weapons equipment by Western allies.

The Ukrainian military analysts warn that the Russian Army might be in camouflage, infirmity and retreat to induce Ukraine to launch an unconsidered attack on guarded positions.

The Ukrainian military may find that “nobody is left anywhere”, Colonel Petro Chernik, the war commentator of the Ukrainian media, said at a press conference held in Kyiv on 5 May.

The spokesman of the Eastern Military Command of Ukraine, Sergei Cherevati, said that he was not convinced of the shortage of ammunition in Prigozin, as the Russian army continued its intensive shelling of Bahmutt. “On the day (5 days only), 520 artillery shells were fired by the (Russian Army in) at Bahmutt and its surroundings.”

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American Institute of War:

Bahmutt may no longer be a Russian military priority

The United States Institute of the Wise War (ISW) analysed that the continued tenacity of Wagner in Bahmat was not coordinated as a whole with the pace of Russian offensive operations in other parts of Ukraine. In addition to very limited and partial attacks in the area of Kremna and in the city of Donetsk, Russian forces have largely stopped offensive operations throughout the theatre, with a tendency to move to defensive transition.

For the Russian Ministry of Defence, the beginning of the seizure and storage of ammunition and materials in preparation for the counter-attack operation in Ukraine will be an operationally sound decision.

The angry seen in the video by Prigozin shows that the Russian Ministry of Defence is likely to have denied the priority of “attacking Bahmutt” and shifting the focus of operations to other parts of the theatre of war, which could seriously undermine the ability of Vagner to act effectively.

However, despite the reduced access to ammunition and other necessities, Wagner has not stopped completely occupying Bahmut and has not shown a willingness to move to guard.

The press secretary of the Russian President, Mr. Perskov, stated in his statement asking for Prigo, that he was aware of the statement made by Prigozin, but that he was not in a position to comment on the threat of Prigzin, which was a military problem.

Red Star journalists

Original: ENGLISH