TL;DR

Market Outlook

• predict that the crypto market in August 2025 may experience volatility, with Bitcoin needing to stay above $116,000 to $117,000.

• A rebound is possible in September due to interest rate cuts, with a potential peak in April or May 2026.

• SPACs are driving altcoin growth through buybacks, as exemplified by CZ’s Nasdaq deal boosting BNB.

Merlin Chain Developments

• Wizard AI will launch this week, introducing modular DeFi features for staking, trading, and lending.

• It aims to simplify interactions and support early token purchases, such as Solana meme coins.

Market Expansion

• Merlin Chain plans to expand in Japan and Hong Kong, targeting strict exchange listings.

• Institutional collaborations with Nasdaq and Hong Kong-listed companies are underway.

Cryptocurrency Market Outlook

August 2025 Market Volatility and September Rebound Expectation

Jeff: I think August could be tricky. Do you guys remember last August? Germany was dumping Bitcoin left and right, and the news was all bad. U.S. jobs data crashed too. Last August was really bad; Bitcoin hit around $48,000 on August 1. I think August will be challenging. We need to stay above $116,000 to $117,000 to be safe. If it keeps dropping tomorrow, we might see a repeat of last year. But I think interest rates will drop next month, so September should be much better, though it’s tricky now.

Bitcoin and Altcoin Cycle Predictions

Jeff: Quick question, when’s the top? I’m thinking May next year, though some say Q4 this year. For the crypto market overall, I believe Bitcoin will hit a high in April or May next year. Altcoin season should come in Q3 to Q4, especially Q4. But I’m not sure about next year because, in this cycle, Bitcoin could soar while altcoins stay flat. So, they’re separate questions. Bitcoin at $700,000 by next May? No way, man, not happening. I mean, $700,000? In Chinese yuan? Sure, but not in USD.

Potential Impact of SPACs on the Altcoin Market

Jeff: Sadly, that’s the only thing altcoins can do. I won’t name specific tokens, but take a $1 billion FDV token—guess how much retail buys daily on Binance or OKX? About $20,000 to $50,000. A $1 billion token, and retail buys only $20,000 to $50,000 daily, with some selling too. That’s why the open market is so bad—retail isn’t buying or can’t afford to. ETFs were the narrative for the first half; Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana’s rises were tied to ETFs. Working with Wall Street, institutions, and PE funds has already happened, and SPACs are the next step. Did you see CZ’s news? He raised funds from Binance, teamed up with many of my friends to buy a company, and they’re going to Nasdaq. That’s why BNB is skyrocketing. Some might criticize me for saying trad-fi folks are capitalists and opportunists. They hear Bitcoin and think it’s the strongest asset, so they want in. That’s where things change. Every cycle has a narrative, and people often realize it only after it takes off. I think SPACs could be the narrative for this cycle—ICOs in 2017, DeFi in 2021, and SPACs in 2025. It’s not just about getting into SPACs; it’s how SPACs impact everything else.

SPAC Surge and Traditional Finance Involvement

Jeff: I bet August will see over 50 projects announce SPAC news. First, these projects are still active, unlike many altcoins that have vanished. Second, besides blue chips like Ethereum, Solana, and Bitcoin, I’d target tokens with ETF potential next year. ETFs bring massive volume, like with Bitcoin ETFs. If you ask ChatGPT, it’ll list 5 to 10 potential tokens—those have better odds than other shitcoins. It’s exciting that trad-fi is getting involved; for this to work, they need to buy in. You can’t just launch something in trad-fi and say it’s done—you need interest. SPAC companies look for the perfect merger fit; they put up a blank check to buy these projects. That’s why trad-fi’s interest in projects like Babylon is great—our Bitcoin ecosystem might be the only one aware of Babylon’s token. ETFs were the narrative for the first half; Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana’s rises were tied to ETFs. Working with Wall Street, institutions, and PE funds has already happened, and SPACs are the next step. Did you see CZ’s news? He raised funds from Binance, teamed up with many of my friends to buy a company, and they’re going to Nasdaq. That’s why BNB is skyrocketing. Some might criticize me for saying trad-fi folks are capitalists and opportunists. They hear Bitcoin and think it’s the strongest asset, so they want in. That’s where things change. Every cycle has a narrative, and people often realize it only after it takes off. I think SPACs could be the narrative for this cycle—ICOs in 2017, DeFi in 2021, and SPACs in 2025. It’s not just about getting into SPACs; it’s how SPACs impact everything else.

Market Trends

Shift to Utility-Driven Subscription Models in Web3

Jeff: I don’t think we’ll see a flood of VC-backed mega-projects like early last year; many VCs have liquidated or are struggling to raise funds. Without VCs, where do you get hundreds or thousands of projects? I scout new founders and projects daily, and there’ll be more practical tools and code, some without tokens, using subscription models, maybe monthly fees. I recently saw a product using on-chain data to show portfolio dynamics and what friends are buying. There’ll be more useful products, some without tokens, where you pay monthly like a membership. Many Bitcoin YouTube projects—I don’t even remember their names—had zero use cases.

Social Experiment with Solana Meme Coins

Jeff: This isn’t official advice, but I don’t think launching a meme coin is foolish—it’s like writing a blog; if someone reads it, great, if not, no harm. Honestly, launching a meme coin is never silly, though it might look odd if I did it, but everyone should try. The name, narrative, and visuals should be as controversial as possible because people’s attention is hard to grab. The key is finding early community supporters who believe in the project, not short-term speculators. That’s what happened with inscriptions and BRC-420. Solana’s trading environment is fiercely competitive, with bots battling every millisecond, but it’s never too late or foolish to launch a meme coin. Pump.fun is a great platform; I prefer it over others. If you’re launching, go live. If the narrative is compelling, do a 24-hour livestream. I have a token idea and want to livestream 24/7. I’ve got a camera—when I sleep, I sleep; I’ll have an iPad playing something, wake up, eat breakfast, make an omelet, and talk about the token, anytime, anywhere. It’s like a social experiment, and it’d be fun because you’re not trying to make money or scam anyone—you’re doing a genuine experiment. People love social experiments. Is the name and lore compelling enough? Look it up! A 24-hour livestream, bro, grab some drinks, talk about all sorts of stuff, get drunk, whatever—it’s a real social experiment. I heard about a 25-year-old Japanese congresswoman who spoke daily at a subway station with a megaphone and gradually got popular. Just stick with it—if you livestream for a month, the token could succeed.

Babylon Funding and Institutional Interest

Jeff: Did you see Babylon’s news last week? You ecosystem folks aren’t following the revolution anymore, but it’s big news. I think it’s huge. Their price hasn’t moved much, but they raised $100 million through an IPO from a foundation and investors to buy Babylon tokens. They also have BTC-Fi plans with institutions. A legit Nasdaq company can do a lot—maybe even an ETF for Babylon, who knows? It’s big for Babylon and great for BTC-Fi projects. Ena was the first, raising $400 million to buy Ena tokens; Babylon’s the second, and who knows what’s next? Projects are now working with institutions to get listed or acquire listed companies. I checked Cointelegraph, CoinDesk, and Decrypt—no Babylon coverage, which is weird. Why isn’t the West highlighting this? I think Babylon is a Western project; their founders are mostly white. Yes, some Chinese background, but mixed. I’ve met their team—99% white, so I don’t know if it’s a racism issue or not. Their founders are Stanford and Princeton PhDs, very Western.

Merlin Chain Project Progress

Wizard AI Modular Features and Ecosystem Innovation

Jeff: I’m pretty sure Wizard will launch this week after last week’s delay. We’ve talked about ETFs, and now we’re using AI to integrate modules, similar to ChatGPT’s modular design. There’s a chat box to interact with an agent, plus a webpage with different modules like Bitcoin staking, trading on Uniswap, Radium, lending, IDOs, IEOs, and other on-chain activities. These modules make it easier for users to choose, as many aren’t used to chatting with an agent but prefer selecting specific functions. In the future, public chains might all work this way—AI handling everything, no need for homepages. Remember the old All-in-One learning Phantom? That could be a module. New Merlin Chain products will also become modules, with the agent handling them for you. So, you go to Wizard and say, “I want to buy this on the marketplace.” The marketplace won’t even need a homepage because Wizard can do it all. It’s like an app store, but you don’t need to download anything. Staking, lending, gambling, trading—different functions, click a module, and the AI tailors its service to that use. It’s not a general agent but one specialized for specific tasks. In the future, every public chain will likely adopt this model. Right now, you visit ecosystem pages, check DeFi projects, and their descriptions are hard to understand. You have to click each one, visit their page, read their Medium, check tutorials, connect your wallet, and worry about Metamask security issues—it’s too complex. AI will consolidate everything. If you have the right contract address, you can buy tokens with a market cap as low as $6,000. Wizard has two main functions: first, it identifies signals, like trending Solana meme coins discussed by influencers in the last 10 minutes, providing the contract address. You can click it, check data on GMGN, and buy through Wizard. Currently, it mainly trades major tokens and altcoins on decentralized exchanges; you wouldn’t want to trade these on centralized exchanges.

Asian Market Expansion Plan

Jeff: In August, we’ll be heading to Japan and Hong Kong. Japan is a general event, and we’re excited to meet many projects there. The Japanese market is unique because their exchanges list only about 8 tokens a year due to strict licensing. If Merlin gets listed in Japan, we’ve made it—that’s how few tokens get approved. In Hong Kong, we’re attending a Bitcoin summit, maybe Bitcoin Asia or Bitcoin Summit, mainly with institutions, not many runes projects. We’ll meet with Nasdaq and Hong Kong-listed companies, many of whom want to collaborate with crypto. We might have good news later this month. Institutions and IPO companies are very interested in crypto partnerships.