TL;DR

• Crypto Market Outlook: Bullish on Bitcoin and Ethereum for the next six months, citing balanced buy-sell pressures and upcoming institutional investments as key drivers, despite temporary market slowdowns.

• Merlinchain Developments: Merlinchain is advancing with its cross-chain trading "Wizard," offering 15% APY BTC staking, Merl staking with flexible terms, and potential token buybacks to enhance long-term value.

• Market Expansion: Institutional interest in crypto treasuries is surging, with Merlinchain targeting billions in Bitcoin treasuries for Nasdaq companies, signaling a first wave of mainstream financial adoption.

Summary

Market Reaction to Interest Rate Fluctuations and Ethereum DeFi Growth Jeff: The market’s buzzing about the Fed’s interest rate decisions, with rate cut odds bouncing between 99%, 70%, and now 80%—traders have mixed views, which is normal. Some folks think rate cuts won’t shake things up much. I met two teams today working on one of the biggest Ethereum DeFi markets; there’s a ton of building going on, and the first wave of momentum is still strong. Ethereum’s climb from $2,000 to $4,800 shows that strength, but markets can’t just keep soaring all day.

Crypto Market’s Short-Term Pause but Long-Term Bullish Outlook Jeff: Right now, it’s a breather for companies setting up to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum. Altcoins and meme coins are underperforming due to a lack of innovation, and retail’s not too active. The Nasdaq’s at all-time highs, so we’re seeing some pullbacks. Still, I’m bullish for the next six months—lots of factors aren’t priced in yet. Holding Bitcoin and Ethereum is safe; I don’t think Ethereum stops at $4,800—it’s definitely going higher. An hour ago, I saw news about a whale who sold Bitcoin to buy Ethereum and staked 270,000 ETH. Before, withdrawals outnumbered staking by about 500,000; now the gap’s down to 200,000, meaning buy and sell pressures are basically balanced, which is great. This whale staking so much ETH shows he’s more bullish on Ethereum than Bitcoin, and that’s fine. We’re in a phase of rebuilding confidence, company structures, and DeFi momentum—maybe a week or two of calm, but I’m still bullish.

Institutional Buying Opportunities and Treasury Company Surge Jeff: I see whales and institutions viewing this as a discount period to buy; the only bearish factor is centralized exchanges needing a breather to do business. Two months ago, TradFi wasn’t serious about crypto in their treasuries, but this past week, we’ve been getting call after call from them—this is the first wave of FOMO. Before, only MicroStrategy and a few others were in; now, everyone’s trying. There’s lots of positive news about treasury companies like Ethena, but actual buying hasn’t started. They’ve just dropped teasers and SEC filings; it takes weeks, sometimes months, in the stock market to start buying and inject liquidity into crypto. Crypto projects are pulling liquidity from the stock market to pump tokens, but it hasn’t kicked off yet. Nasdaq’s liquidity is a thousand times bigger than crypto’s—when it flows in, altcoins will go wild. Spend $5 million on an altcoin project today, and the price will skyrocket because trading volume here is so low compared to stocks. These announcements are out, but buying hasn’t begun—that’s why I’m super bullish. When retail and mid-tier Nasdaq companies jump in, that’s the second or third wave; we’re at the start of the first wave now.

Liquidity-Driven 2021 vs. Current Cycle Outlook Jeff: People saw 2021 as innovation-driven, and that’s not wrong, but realistically, liquidity was the key. Everything pumped because market makers like Jump, SBF, Alameda, and FTX were running Ponzi-like liquidity schemes, funding token pumps and liquidations like Luna—that crazy liquidity drove the market but ended in crashes. This cycle, those players are gone, so liquidity’s missing, and innovations look weak. If we get liquidity from elsewhere, those innovations suddenly make sense. People judge projects not for what they are but how they perform—that’s the path to liquidity.

2017 Cycle Similarities and Blue-Chip Token Potential Jeff: This cycle’s different but shares some vibes with 2017 when Bitcoin was all that mattered, like from 2023 to 2025. Back then, Ethereum’s ICOs drew attention; Bitcoin alone didn’t move the needle for most. Now, if blue-chip tokens like Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid keep pace, we could see something similar. I saw news today about a company raising $2 billion for Solana—not flippers buying to sell, but IPO companies putting it in treasuries for the long haul. That’s maybe a 1% risk for them, but it’s huge for crypto—1% of Nasdaq’s equity would shake up the market big time.

Institutional Long-Term Investment and Crypto Market Sustainability Jeff: Institutions think long-term. I know a buddy from a private equity fund who bought Solana at $80 four years ago. When it dropped to $5 or $8, people laughed, but they didn’t care—their fund’s on a 10-year-plus plan. Now they’re making double their money, way above average performance.

Proof-of-Stake vs. Proof-of-Work Applicability Jeff: For fully decentralized tokens like Bitcoin, proof-of-work is fine, but most tokens are like standalone projects or companies. If you’re running a company, proof-of-stake is way better—more efficient, easier to manage, and it brings big players together to build. Proof-of-work has miners running the network, but they sell tokens after getting rewards, which isn’t great for a company’s economics. You can’t imagine a real-world company making millions rich while holding no assets. If Doge wants to stay a meme coin, proof-of-work’s okay, but for innovation, proof-of-stake makes sense—it’s not about good or bad, just different paths. Networks like Ethereum and Solana aren’t fully decentralized; talking to them feels like dealing with American corporations, like Meta or Google. These corporate-style tokens, like Ethereum with Vitalik and its foundation, aren’t as decentralized as some think, but they have less impact than these companies, and those companies can succeed.

Wizard Campaign and AI’s Crypto Potential Jeff: We’ve tested the Wizard for two weeks, hit some bugs, but people love it—it’s free and sometimes gives more detailed crypto info than ChatGPT or Grok. We’re kicking off a campaign this week to get more folks using it, offering thousands in rewards for users sharing content. Share the questions you ask Wizard and its answers—the weirder, the better—and your experience; we’ll give out prizes. This is our first campaign, with two more to come. AI’s a big deal for crypto, but people undervalue these ideas now, chasing meme coins instead. I’d say hold blue-chip tokens, like that project you mentioned months ago—its market cap went from $1-2 billion to $5-6 billion, a 300% gain. Don’t think it’s slow; 10% returns are solid, and 15% staking is free money.

Bitcoin Treasury Systems and Merlinchain’s Strategy Jeff: Lots of institutions are crazy about Ethereum treasuries, but as Bitcoin folks, we’re doing something different—helping people regain confidence in Bitcoin treasury systems. It’s not that people lack confidence, but Ethereum’s staking yields, like 3% extra ETH yearly, feel like free money to TradFi, and 3% on tokens is huge. We’re talking to tons of companies about Bitcoin treasuries, and they’re shocked at the APR value we offer. The more we talk, the more they’re into the BTC treasury structure. We’ve been building this concept and product for a while, and in the coming days, weeks, and months, we’ll have big news. Our goal is to build billions in Bitcoin treasuries for Nasdaq companies—that’s the real business we’re running. Learning these fundamentals matters; people don’t look at token fundamentals now, but this is one we’re building. BTC treasuries and AI are our long-term focus, but short-term, BTC treasuries have more impact since they generate revenue. We might use that revenue for token buybacks, a possibility that makes the token useful with long-term fundamental growth.

Merlinchain Token Buybacks and Ecosystem Appeal Jeff: Token buybacks are why Hyperliquid’s been killing it, and we’re using the same strategy. With Bitcoin DeFi, AI, and potential buybacks, there’s no reason to be bearish on Merlin. We’ve got DeFi projects in development that’ll bring in tons of users, plus RWA stuff in the mix.

Hong Kong Events and Networking Value Jeff: This week, Hong Kong’s got a bunch of Bitcoin events, the big one being the Bitcoin Summit, which was huge a few years back. I’m giving a keynote and joining panels. Jen from Xverse Wallet invited us to a Bitcoin builders’ dinner—should be cool to catch up with folks like UN and AsFact. We’ll have deep talks about where things are headed. It’s a great reunion for Bitcoin builders to see what everyone’s working on. If you’re around, swing by and say hi. After that, we’re prepping for KBW in Korea. I don’t personally love the hectic conference vibe, but it’s super valuable. Staying in my room all day gets me no outside info, but talking to hundreds of people sparks new ideas. Last year, chatting with Lorenzo, we swapped tons of ideas and met passionate Bitcoin ecosystem builders. This time, Hong Kong’s got lots of TradFi folks since it’s the East’s New York City—Wall Street types are coming too. Ideas from different industries bouncing off each other is awesome, but it’s exhausting for me with all the media attention. I’ll do my best, though.