Image prompt to Bing: modern technology renaissance inspired by Florentine artists showing the possibilities of climate tech, health tech, psychedelics, AI, and carbon capture.

For the next phase of Operation Florence, I went deep into a few non-crypto areas, in particular climate tech and psychedelic-based mental health.

I’ve also started to dive into the unique elements of El Salvador, in preparation for my crypto-oriented trip there in July.

I spoke with a number of 1st round interviewees again, enrolled in a No Code MBA class on programming ChatGPT, as well as an AirMiners course on the Direct Air Capture of carbon.

I also had the opportunity to add a few more illustrious names to the Operation Florence team, including  Chase Damiano, Sten Tamkivi, Kristin Muhlner, Marcus Capone, Jessica Groopman, and Jake Rozmaryn.

Climate Tech

Jake Rozmaryn may be one of the most knowledgeable people I’ve ever met when it comes to climate tech. He should definitely talk with Lawrence Lundy-Bryan. Those guys would geek out.

There are a few takeaways from all this research.  

First of all, it’s going to take ALL of the various alternative energy approaches to solve the problem of dramatically reducing the amount of carbon going into the atmosphere.  The most promising one in the short term seems to be geothermal engineering, with green hydrogen also being there. But Sten Tamkivi sees a future where we need to ask ourselves “What do we do with an abundance of energy?”

That will be a huge paradigm shift. 

In the meantime, however, the battery market is over-saturated (with the possible exception of the “money battery” market, which is what Sten called Bitcoin.)  Most of the other climate tech isn’t commercially viable yet. As Jake said “It’s a 10-year process,” which is why the only real buyer of these technologies for the near future will be governments.  

The same is true on the other side of the carbon production equation- the removal of the climate from the atmosphere that is already there.  Although Climeworks received $650 million in funding, it’s fairly evident that the “carbon bathtub is filling up faster than the carbon is being drained,” so carbon removal alone is not going to get the job done.  

Plus, the carbon credit market is a mess and needs more transparency and/or credible verification processes. 

This leads me to the most interesting discovery, that of the “circular carbon economy.”  The best example of that was provided by Jake in the form of a company called Twelve, which takes carbon from the air and then injects it into everyday materials like concrete, thus making the concrete stronger.

Now, that is business value and provides a profit incentivization for companies to take carbon out of the air…because they have sturdier buildings that require less repair.

This concept ties into one of the themes that Jessica highlighted as a growing movement, namely “ReFi” or “Regenerative Finance,” which is “the idea of decoupling money from the sole goal of accumulating wealth and recouple with specific objectives” 

That, however, is a small part of the equation, and for now, it’s governments for the foreseeable future, with one ancillary area of selling enterprise software to companies that want to track their Scope 1, 2, and 3 carbon emissions as part of their carbon accounting. Basically, the carbon accounting software market.  QuickBooks for Carbon. ClearTrace is one of the companies here. Watershed is another.

Still, there’s a LOT of money to be made to be here at all parts of the value chain. FWIW, I remain convinced that a crypto circular economy plus some element of the climate tech world is going to be big…I just don’t know where.  And Jake will tell you “There were 200-400 companies all focused on energy/blockchain. 80% of them are dead.  The fastest way for a project to die in the energy industry is to use the word “blockchain.”  

As he explains, the energy industry is complicated enough. Risk-averse.  Old school.  So, if I’m right, it’s going to be an outside, Netflix-like disruptor, not inside innovation.  Isn’t that always the case?

Finally, as part of my “skin in the game” philosophy- that an investment in a given technology forces me to study and learn about it, I made some small investments in a micro-nuclear fusion tech company, a “green steel” company, and a pressurized water storage company.**
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Health, HealthTech and Psychedelics

Chase Damiano, Kristin Muhlner, and Marcus Capone all spoke knowingly and convincingly about the world of psychedelics and health tech.

Here’s the net of it…psychedelics are going to be a thing…a big thing. They definitely work and they will be deployed.

BUT…and it’s a big one because the approach with psychedelics and mental health (to be an employee benefit, for example) is most decidedly not the path that Cannabis took. It’s going to run into and have to overcome a number of regulatory hurdles.  As Kristin said about Healthtech, “It’s a B2B2C model and if you aren’t 100% convinced that payers will pay for it, it’s never going to work.”

Plus, the administration of these medications will have to have a physical infrastructure and be a service business. This is exactly what TaraMind and Marcus are doing, with impressive results.

For a guy who has spent his career in software with those ridiculous margins, that’s a tough pill to swallow!

The health/synthetic biology markets all run into the same type of regulatory hurdles, but there are ways to gain small victories.  For example, Sten shared a story of companies in the Synthetic Biology space that are able to hack the regulatory process by identifying loopholes (e.g. treating fatty liver disease when the liver is out of the body instead of inside a patient).

Regardless, all agree that health tech, particularly in a world of ever-faster disruption (a la ChatGPT) is going to be important and that mental health, a concept that is going to be expanded to include things like Somatics (ht: Chase), has a big opportunity in front of it.

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, the exploration of non-crypto areas like climate tech and psychedelic-based mental health revealed a multitude of opportunities, challenges, and insightful prospects in these fields. It became evident that solving climate issues requires a comprehensive and multi-faceted approach, ranging from green energy solutions to innovative carbon capture methodologies. Emerging models such as the "circular carbon economy" and "Regenerative Finance" offer promising pathways to couple economic growth with climate-resilient objectives.

In the mental health sector, psychedelics pose significant potential; however, the regulatory challenges and the need for physical infrastructure for administering these medications cannot be ignored. The emergence of health tech and synthetic biology promises to redefine our understanding and approach towards health, as we incorporate new concepts like Somatics.

There's also a keen observation that crypto could intersect with climate tech, although it's a highly contentious issue due to the industry's old-school, risk-averse nature. The prospect of a "crypto circular economy" in the climate tech world, although uncertain, holds potential.

Above all, the intersection of various sectors such as health, energy, and finance with emerging technologies like AI and blockchain will be key in defining our future. As we navigate through these multifaceted challenges, it's vital to adopt a "skin in the game" philosophy, investing not just financially but intellectually in these emergent technologies.

While these explorations have been deeply insightful, they have also served to highlight that we are only at the beginning of this journey. There are still many uncharted territories to explore and many complex challenges to overcome. However, the potential rewards, both for individuals and for society as a whole, make this a journey well worth embarking on.

Further Reading

• Sten recommended the book, Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization, which talks about the value of networks in a new way.  I’m receiving it today. 

• Jake recommended anything by Daniel Yergin.  I’m going for The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World by Daniel Yergin

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