SOME LESSONS FROM THE CRYPTO BULL RUN

This is an unedited rough draft of the lessons learnt during the 2021 Bull run and 2022 Bear Market.

Essentially, I am documenting this because “Even through History does not Always Repeat, It does Rhyme”.

Capital + Courage in the time of market crash is a blessing.
o The best gains from the 2021 Bull run were made by those that were courageous to invest at the depth of the March 2020 Crash.
o Dips/Crashes provides the best entry points for maximum (10x, 100x, or 1000x) profits.
o A black swan event or major capitulation occurs every 4-6 months in crypto. Meaning between 2-3 capitulations per-year which wipes out weak hands, and creates a perfect entry to investors. Therefore, having liquidity at these times is bliss.
 Cash is never trash, as without cash it is impossible to take advantage of dips, crashes, capitulations etc.

Long-term holding on solid coins outperforms day trading.
o Holding requires a lot of discipline and patience, although it pays off long-term.
o Part of the mistake most investors make was taking profits from their Winners and putting them into their losers. However, this is an ineffective strategy because in most cases, Winners keep winning & vice Versa. Hence, in a bear market, Ride your winners and cut your losers.
o Although, during the initial phase of the bull market, there were pumps in meme coins such as Doge, Shiba Inu, Cumrocket, etc. Nevertheless, coins with great fundamentals and work products such as AXS, SOL & FTM went parabolic.
 This is because protocols such as Axie Infinity established the (Play-To-Earn) Narrative
 While Alt Layer 1’s such as Solana were adopted due to thier lesser fees and higher transaction speed

Noticing trends changes and investing early is key to maximum profits.
o Initially, in the 2020 bull reason, there was the DeFi (Decentralized Finance) explosion.
o Explosion in Layer 1 tokens.
o Then the NFT Explosion.
o Explosion in Layer 2 tokens.
o Most times, consensus opinions never comes to fruition, in 2021 almost all Analyst predicted a $100k Bitcoin, but it bottomed at $69k. Whereas by the end of 2022, almost all Analyst predicted that Bitcoin would go down to $10k. However, it did not.

The power of hodling
o Timing is market is extremely hard and sometimes futile.
o According to fundstrat research, if you miss out of the ten (10) best days a crypto price movement, you would be significantly down.
o Hence, the best investors are those who notice a future trend early, accumulate, hodl and wait for the market momentum to kick-in.
o Time in the market >>> Timing the market.
o If you miss out of 10 (ten) days of the biggest rally in the S&P 500 within a decade, then your returns are cut to less than half. (There’s almost no scientific way to time this 10 days out of 3650 days).

Do not be emotionally attached to any token.
o Maximalism limits objective thinking and proficient risk management
o Always treat the market as PVP (Player versus Player) meaning its you against other crypto holders, hedge funds, VC etc.
o Also treat the market as PVE (Player versus Environment) means you need to understand the macro environment and other system.

People (to never fade)
o Arthur Hayes
o Gareth Soloway
o Chris Burniske
o Most influencers and public figures are almost always late to the party. Hence, if a trade, token, or coin is consensus, it is almost already too late to bet on it

Timing
o “To survive long-term in the crypto markets, you must have a balance dose of curiosity and skepticism, especially around different phases in the market cycles”.
o Historically, the best time to invest in crypto is 100 days before the Halving.
o Historically begin averaging-in around 100 days before the halving and start exiting-out around a year after the halving.o The best period to hold with conviction is 100 days before the halving for a year.
o The best time to sell is 18 months after the Halving (Although you can commence DCA out at least 12 months after the halving), as the bear market is inevitable.
o Immediately a year after the halving, trade with tight stops.
o Start preparing to short the market from the All-Time Highs at least 18 Months after the previous halving, as this is when Euphoria is at its peak.

Shorting
o Historically, the best time to short the crypto market is 18 months after the Halving as the bear market is inevitable.
o Knowledge of both fundamentals and technical are important in shorting.
o Insights on vesting schedules, token unlock etc. are important as most tokens are dumped by VCs and seed investors during the unlock periods.
o Many tokens would lose its value by over 95% in the bear market, and some would even go on a death spiral (i.e., Luna, FTT) etc. Hence, the ability to adequately position and short early would offer maximum result.

Bitcoin Dominance
o At the height of the Bear market, most of the altcoins must have completely shrunk, with Bitcoin gaining over 50% dominance.
o At the peak of the Bull market, Bitcoin dominance is usually the lowest, typically below 25% followed by an altseason. This is usually the best period to take profits.

Ponzinomics
o A lot of altcoins and new paradigms such as Play-to-Earn, Run-to-Earn etc. in crypto is essentially a Ponzi, with no solid fundamentals, where a couple players go in early, make money and get out at the top. The Bagholder mostly get rekt.
o In the bear market, the short-sellers would massively profit because most crypto would be down -90% or more.
o Most of the successful crypto investors play the game as a PVP (Player vs Player) Ponzi)
 Get in early when there is fear, position yourself for profits or generational wealth, wait for retail and institutional adoption, sell why the hype is at the highest.

Charts
o In the Bull Market from (Mid-2024 to Late 2025), all crypto prices would go up (Long).
 The Charts would look like a Hockey stick.
o In the Bear Market from (Late 2025 to Late 2026), all crypto prices will go down (Short).  The Charts would look like the Eiffel tower.  Begin accumulating Gems for the Next Cycle during the tail end of the Bear (Usually Nov – December).

Bear Market Lessons
 Having experienced my first bear market in 2022 which took a significant financial toll on my portfolio, but ended up being one of the most priceless experience dealing with the financial markets (particularly crypto, which is the most volatile market).
 Before analyzing the Bear Market, it is important to note that in previous cycle Bitcoin topped first around November 2021, while other Altcoins continued to rally significantly and eventually topped by December/January 2022.
 Around this period:
o NFTs were being sold at Outrageous prices.
o Defi protocols were offering outrageous APR on tokens.
o Crypto projects were raising overpriced rounds by VC that were in FOMO mode.
o Traditional Bankers, VCs, and Web2 talents were resigning in droves into Web3.
o The Euphoria on Crypto Twitter was Insane.
o The rate of Leverage in the System was at an astronomic rate.
o Countries, Family Offices, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Hedge Funds and Companies were adding Bitcoin and other Crypto Assets unto their Balance Sheets.
o Mainstream Media, Influencers and Social Media was going Agog on the Crypto/Web3 Narrative.
o Anyone taking profits during this period was mocked on CT, with the famous slogan HFSP (Have Fun Staying Poor).
o Crypto companies were buying Naming rights for Major Stadiums, Humongous Marketing Campaigns and Irresponsible Flex going on.
o DAOs were raising millions of Dollars for purposes such as buying the constitutions etc. (Many of these endeavors had nothing to do with Crypto advancement in any way).
o Bitcoin Dominance was significantly down less than 25%.
o Inflation rates was shooting High at Unsustainable rates, Although Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve were still Dovish insisting that “Inflation was Transitory” (Turned out they were wrong).
o The M2 (Money Supply) was increasing exponentially.
o Most of the VCs Particularly (Three Arrows Capital) were trending the Narrative of a Super Cycle.

Notes on the Super Cycle Narrative.
 Firstly, it is obvious to state that Bitcoin has been on an Endless Super-Cycle since 2009 when it went live.
 Nevertheless, the crypto market moves in a four-year cycle pattern, comprising of three UP years (that I call the Super cycle) and a down year. The Image below further demonstrates this.

 For instance, 2014 was a DOWN year, while the three succeeding years (2015, 2016, 2017) were UP years. Afterwards, 2018 was a DOWN year, while the three succeeding years (2019, 2020, 2021) were UP years. Similarly, 2022 was a DOWN year, and I believe based on the historical patterns, (2023, 2024, 2025) would be UP years.
 The mistake most people make however is that instead of understanding that the Super Cycle commences after ever Bear (Down) Year, they assume that a Super Cycle will continue after the Bull Market.

Bear Market Lessons
 In a crypto bear market, all that could go wrong, would eventually go Wrong.
o Overleveraged Hedge funds would default, blow-up and get liquidated.
o Uncollateralized, Under-collaterized or Algorithimic stable coins will loose their peg.
o Most projects would loose 90 – 95% of their value.
o Major rug-pulls by projects.
o Exchange blow-offs.
o Massive layoffs
o Don’t fight the fed (Learn about Quantitative easing and tightening and its impact on the market).
o