Our reporter Wang Ning

As an energy commodity, the price of natural gas has been rising this year. On April 15, Beijing time, the US natural gas futures price hit a high of US $7.548/mmbtu (million British heat), which is also a new record since 2008; At the same time, according to the calculation of the lowest price and the highest price, the forward price of natural gas in the United States has increased by more than 100% during the year.

A number of experts interviewed told the Securities Daily that due to the continuous overflow of geographical conflict risks, the US natural gas inventory is at a historically low level and the unanimous expectation of all circles on the tight pattern of supply and demand, the US natural gas futures price will remain strong during the year; In the short term, it is unlikely to ease the tight supply and demand pattern, and the futures price is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

The main contract has increased by 111.42%

In the context of accelerating global energy transformation and carbon emission reduction, the importance of natural gas as a transitional energy is becoming increasingly prominent. On April 15, the main contract of us natural gas futures in July rose strongly to US $7.548/mmbtu, corresponding to the lowest point of US $3.57/mmbtu in the year, with a cumulative increase of 111.42%. As of press time, the contract price in July was US $7.324/mmbtu, up 0.327 points or 4.67%.

Cheng Xuefei, a researcher of Founder’s medium-term petrochemical industry, told the Securities Daily that the continued strength of the US natural gas futures price is mainly due to the spillover impact of geographical conflicts, which has changed the global natural gas trade pattern. “It is a long-term trend for the United States to deliver natural gas to Europe, which increases the export volume of natural gas in the United States, while the increase of natural gas production in the United States is in a stable state, the short-term supply and demand pattern will continue to be tight, and the future price of natural gas will rise sharply.”

At the same time, US natural gas inventories are also at a low level. According to the latest report of the US Energy Agency (EIA), as of the beginning of April, the total US natural gas inventory decreased by 23.9% compared with the same period last year and 17.8% lower than the five-year average. Huang Ke, assistant manager of Dayou futures investment and Research Center, told the Securities Daily that concerns about the destruction of the global commodity supply chain caused by geographical conflicts are rising. Under the expectation of the obstruction of Russian natural gas exports, the United States is expected to become the world’s largest natural gas exporter, but the U.S. natural gas inventory continues to decline, which provides a driving force for the continuous rise of prices.

“Natural gas in the United States is mainly used as power generation energy, while domestic natural gas mainly ensures the needs of people’s livelihood.” Hao Xiaoxiao, a researcher of Fangzheng medium-term petrochemical industry, told reporters that from the perspective of supply, the supply of natural gas in the United States is huge and the price is low, while the exploitation of natural gas in China is insufficient and highly dependent on imports.

Short term futures prices will still be strong

“As of the beginning of April this year, the US natural gas inventory was at a low level, with a total of 1397 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 439 billion cubic feet compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 23.9%; at the same time, it was 303 billion cubic feet lower than the five-year average. It is expected that the short-term US natural gas futures price will remain strong.” Sui Xiaoying, chief Petrochemical researcher of Founder medium term futures, told reporters that recently, the prices of most energy varieties have fallen back from the previous high, and the possibility of hitting a new high in the future is low. However, for chemical products, affected by the epidemic, the upstream and downstream supply and demand have decreased significantly, the industrial profits are low, the epidemic situation has improved in the later stage, and the recovery of downstream terminal demand is relatively certain, The improvement of terminal demand will drive the profits of chemicals to repair upward.

Huang Ke also believes that the current international energy supply and demand is still tight, the crude oil price remains above US $100 / barrel, and the natural gas price also has strong support. Based on the expectation of the prospect of us natural gas export to Europe, the natural gas futures price will still be strong.

Li Zuzhi, an analyst at SDIC Anxin futures, told the Securities Daily that due to the contraction of the price difference of natural gas exported from the United States to Europe and the decline of the accumulated reserves in the European natural gas market, the export volume of natural gas from the United States will continue to grow in the short term, and the current price will still be strong. Driven by the recent rebound of crude oil, the domestic LPG futures price has not loosened the international import cost, and the high pressure is further strengthened. It is worth noting that the recent rise in coal prices in Europe has increased the demand for natural gas, and the inventory in the United States decreased gradually in April. The driving force for the rise in natural gas prices in the short term continues.