Tony's Predictions for 2021

Tony's Napkin Doodles

0x9b21

May 7th, 2021

Let's start this off with some predictions.

Scott Alexander (of Astral Codex Ten) motivations and rules:

The goal of the exercise is to calibrate my ability to know things
The predictions will be graded based on what will be true by Jan 1, 2022
I haven't done any additional research on these predictions for this post

Crypto Markets

S&P above $4,184: 80%
... above $4600: 50%
... above .08 BTC: 25%
BTC above $50K: 90%
... above $100K: 60%
ETH above $2.5K: 90%
... above $5K: 75%
... above 0.05 BTC: 80%
... above 0.10 BTC: 50%
DPI above $500: 80%
... above $1K: 60%
... above 0.15 ETH: 80%
... above 0.30 ETH: 40%
Dominant narrative in crypto is digital gold: 40%
... is decentralized finance: 70%
... is non fungible tokens: 20%
... is web3: 5%
We see a drawdown in BTC, ETH, or DPI of >40% over one week: 80%
... of >60% over one week: 25%
Cryptopunk floor price greater than $60K: 80%
... greater than 1 BTC: 90%
... greater than 17 ETH: 50%
Meebits floor price greater than $3K: 40%
... greater than 1 ETH: 20%
... greater than 0.5 ETH: 40%
Most valuable NFT sale is greater than $70M: 10%

Crypto Usage

FAANG company announces 1% or greater BTC exposure on balance sheet: 20%
... ETH exposure on balance sheet: 5%
A top 20 bank directly lends through a DeFi lending protocol: 60%
TVL in DeFi across major chains greater than $200B: 80%
... greater than $500B: 60%
... greater than $1T: 25%
Losses due to hacks, exploits, rugs, etc. greater than $500M: 90%
... greater than $1B: 75%
... greater than $2B: 50%
Pancakeswap volumes are greater than Uniswap volumes: 30%
ETH 2.0 Merge occurs: 40%
EIP 1559 occurs: 80%
Diem launches: 80%
... with smart contracts: 10%
... with smart contracts usable by anybody (permissionless): 1%
TVL on Ethereum roll-ups exceed TVL on Ethereum: 20%
Exchange volumes on Ethereum roll-ups exceed exchange volumes on Ethereum: 10%
TVL on an Ethereum killer exceeds TVL on Ethereum: 30%
Exchange volumes on an Ethereum killer exceeds exchange volumes on Ethereum: 70%
BTC ETF launches: 60%
ETH ETF launches: 40%
Stablecoin lending rates at Genesis are greater than 5%: 95%
... greater than 10%: 70%
... greater than 20%: 20%
A private version of a DeFi use case (e.g. auctions, transactions) reaches 50% of the adoption of the public version: 1%
... reaches 25% of the adoption of the public version: 5%
... reaches 10% of the adoption of the public version: 10%
Undercollateralized lending underwritten using on-chain activity surpasses $5M: 50%
... surpasses $10M: 40%
... surpasses $100M: 20%
The plurality of personal accounts I see on my twitter feed are cartoon or anime avatars: 60%
... are NFT avatars: 40%
... are real faces: 10%

Crypto Venture

A crypto fund raises greater than $1B: 80%
... greater than $2B: 60%
A pre-product seed deal gets done at greater than $250M equity or $500M token valuation: 75%
... greater than $500M equity or $1B token valuation: 40%
Most high profile preseed/seed deals will be led by DAOs: 15%
... will be led by traditional VCs: 10%
... will be led by crypto funds with greater than $200M AUM: 80%
Most high profile launches will be fair launches: 0.1%

Politics and Macro

Capital gains taxes increase meaningfully: 10%
A wealth tax is enacted: 5%
... in California: 10%
Polling suggests republicans will win the senate in the 2022 midterms: 70%
... will win the house in the 2022 midterms: 70%
Newsom is recalled: 10%
The COVID vaccine patents are suspended: 90%
All COVID restrictions are lifted at the federal level: 80%
... in California: 70%
Unemployment is greater than 4.5%: 20%
... is greater than 5%: 10%
10Y treasury rates greater than 1.5%: 80%
... greater than 2%: 60%
... greater than 2.5%: 25%

Work

Work full time on Cozy: 99%
redacted: 80%
... redacted: 70%
... redacted: 60%
redacted: 40%
Start a venture fund: 5%

Personal

Write a morning journal more than 70% of days: 99%
... more than 80% of days: 95%
... more than 90% of days: 90%
Write a blog post more than 70% of weeks (starting now): 80%
... more than 80% of weeks: 60%
... more than 90% of weeks: 50%
Squat for reps over 285lbs: 95%
... over 300lbs: 90%
... over 350 lbs: 40%
Weigh over 150lbs: 99%
... over 160lbs: 30%
... over 170lbs: 5%
redacted: 20%
... redacted: 50%
... redacted: 80%
Live in the same house: 95%
House will have appreciated by more than 0%: 95%
... by more than 5%: 60%
... by more than 10%: 20%
Read more than 50 books: 1%
... more than 40 books: 20%
... more than 25 books: 80%
Donate greater than 10% of my net income: 95%
... greater than 1% of my total crypto holdings: 95%
redacted: 90%
... redacted: 75%
... redacted: 40%
Make greater than 10 angel investments: 99%
... greater than 20 angel investments: 60%
... greater than 50 angel investments: 20%
Go to therapy on a regular schedule: 90%
Married to Anna: 99%
Parents alive: 99%
Gary TikTok greater than 500K followers: 75%
... greater than 1M followers: 60%
Anna cast in major show or movie: 30%
... in major commercial: 40%

Subscribe to Tony's Napkin Doodles

Receive the latest updates directly to your inbox.

Verification

This entry has been permanently stored onchain and signed by its creator.

Arweave Transaction

eNXDY2kErT3Xzin…3Q3EHBm_dDddEaI

Author Address

0x9b217B4B9533bb2…Adf5739cFa27E86

Content Digest

xDYJl7Yt9Bi_Tdh…V5oazPhG09KM19k