tldr: Going First has a win rate of nearly 70% in Axie Origins Season 4 for top players; Problem likely due to increase “card advantage” for Player 1 with the new patch

First player advantage has been an age-old problem for any turn-based game where one player plays first, and this also applies to Axie Infinity: Origins. The reason I am writing this post now is that I think the problem of first player advantage is becoming a big problem during Season 4 with the recent change with the Keep mechanics and the changes in card draw during Round 2. Even as a casual player, I noticed it during my first day of playing with the new patch. I am sure the pros would have a lot more to say about the reasons behind the first player advantage in Season 4.

Let's start with some data first. I downloaded the most recent 100 matches from the top ranked players (15 May 2023) and calculated the proportion of games won, drawn, and lost for Player 1 (the player going first). As expected, Player 1 wins nearly 70% (69.05%) of the games for the Top 100 players (Figure 1). Note that this methodology has a huge bias as most top 100 players are playing Topaz teams. It could be that Topaz teams are particular good when they go first, but it does not mean the first player advantage problem is any less significant because there will be a lot of matches involving Topaz teams at the highest level in the Arena and in tournaments.

The Player 1 win rate decreases slightly to 68.64% for Top 200 players, 66.94% for Top 500 players, and 65.24% for Top 1000 players. This is obviously still very far for the ideal 50%. Part of the problem is that the play rate of one particular archetype, naming Topaz in Season 4, is very high (which is another problem in itself in terms of balancing), and this archetype benefits from going first. Having said that, I personally do not play a Topaz team (I play a Leafy team with no ramp) and I found it a lot easier to play going first within the first day of the patch, so I do not think the first player advantage only applies to Topaz teams. Below I will share my experiences and speculations on why the first player advantage problem is particularly significant in Season 4.

Tempo vs Card Advantage

The terms tempo and card advantage have different meanings in different card games, and here I am borrowing these terms to talk about Axie Origins which may mean something different from the usual meanings of the terms. In Axie Origins, Player 1 starts with a tempo advantage in going first and being the first one to get to 3 Energy. This increases the likelihood of Player 1 being able to KO an Axie first, which is a big advantage because it limits opponent's options and make their future card draw worse with revenge cards. Player 1 can often pick up the first KO because:

• Axies at 400 HP - meaning it is very difficult to KO with 4 Energy(Turn 4) but quite doable with 5 or more Energy (Turn 5)

• Cottontail at 7 Energy Fragments - it only requires one Fragement gain for Player 1 to get to gain an extra Energy with Cottontail on Turn 5

There are other “tempo advantages” for Player 1 such as being able to bypass some rune abilities before they activate, put opponent’s Axie to sleep before they can set up etc., but these tempo advantages of Player 1 has not changed since the patch, so it is not the main cause of the first player advantage problem in Season 4.

In Axie Origins, the “tempo advantage” of Player 1 was balanced by the “card disadvantage” in the sense of having few cards to choose from, and hence making Player 1’s play less consistent. The patch changes in Season 4 effectively gives Player 1 a card advantage over Player 2 because:

• Player 1 has 7 cards for the first 3 Energy while Player 2 has 8 cards for the first 4 Energy simce the change in Round 2 card draw.

• With the new Keep mechanic, Player 1 can hold onto more cards to get to their first 3 Energy turn.

• Assuming teams with no ramp, Player 1 can afford to Keep twice without affecting their Cottontail turn whereas Player 2 cannot afford to Keep (except Round 1 free Keep) or else they will delay their Cottontail turn.

Predictions and Suggestions

The first player advantage problem is particularly significant in the Rare Era with fewer defensive runes and charms available. My guess is that the situation may improve slightly when we move to the Epic Era, especially when sustain become more viable and there will be more taunt to mitigate the problem of the front Axie getting KOed too quickly. However, as long as Topaz remains dominant, the first player advantage will mostly likely continue to be a factor for the rest of the season.

I am sure they will address this problem in the next season. Here are a few way I think may help the problem:

• Change back to Player 1 drawing 3 in Round 2

• Remove first turn free Keep for Player 1 (force them to use Fragment to Keep)

• Change Cottontail to 9 Fragments to get extra Energy (7 Fragments doesn't work well and Cottontail is still OP now so a nerf would make other tail cards more viable).

Let's see what will happen for the remaining of the season and what will change next season. Meanwhile, remember to click Go First at the start of every battle! Good luck in the Arena!