tldr: Topaz for easy climb at Top 1000; Sustain and Jinx match up well against Topaz; Play Hot Butt if you want to play something different and don't mind losing to Topaz
The Rare Era of Season 4 of Axie Infinity: Origins is soon drawing to a close. I have compiled some statistics of the win rates and matchups of various teams / archetypes for the past 3 days (data collected on 22 May 2023). Hopefully this could help with your final push in the Rare Era.
Win rates
Figure 1 shows the win rates of various teams / archetypes for the past 3 days. Top N refers to matches involving at least one player in the Top N positions in the leaderboard at the time of data collection. Topaz is consistently having win rate above 50% across the tiers of the Top of leaderboard. Part of the reason why the win rates of Topaz is not higher is because there is a lot of matches with Topaz mirror which would results in a 50% win rate.
Interestingly, Sustain is doing very well in the current meta with an even higher win rate than Topaz. Note that the number of matches at the very top is limited, hence treat the statistics with caution as it could be deal to small sample sizes. Sustain and Jinx do better at the higher ranks, mainly because these two archetypes have a good matchup against Topaz, which is more concentrated at the top.
The win rates of Aggro, Poison, and Leafy increases as we go down the rank. These archetypes farm on less optimised builds at the lower ranks but find it different to fight against the optimised builds of Topaz. AoE and Triple Owl teams are not doing too well at the top. Surprisingly Hot Butt teams are not going too bad and is very much under-explored in the top level.
Matchups at Top 100
Before I get into the data, I want to reiterate that some of the data only involve very small number of matches, meaning sampling errors can play a big part, especially with the extreme percentages. Having said that, we can look into some trends for the 4 most popular archetypes, Topaz, Aggro, Jinx, and Sustain at the highest level.
Sustain seems to have a good matchup against Topaz and Aggro but loses very hard to Jinx. Jinx was a fair chance against pretty much all archetypes other than Leafy. Aggro is not really having a good time at the highest level and loses hard against Sustain.
Matchups at Top 1000
As we move from Top 100 to Top 200, 500, and 1000 (Figures 2-5), we are including teams with “less-optimised” builds. If we look at the Top 1000, with the inclusion of the “less-optimised” builds, we see that Topaz can pretty much fight against Jinx, Sustain, and Aggro while having positive matchups against all other archetypes. With more number of matches at Top 1000, we can be more confident with our conclusions that Aggro suffers against Sustain, Sustain suffers against Jinx, Jinx suffers against Leafy, AoE suffers against Sustain and Poison. If it is not for the dominance of Topaz, Hot Butt would be a good option to go against the other top archetypes. Note that while the top left corner of the heatmaps are supported with large number of matches, the bottom and the right side of the heatmaps are still based on a small number of matches at Top 1000 because most of the matchups involved the top 4-5 most popular archetypes.
I hope this information is helpful for your final push in the Rare Era! Good luck; have fun! Let's see if anything will change in the Epic Era!