In recent years, a small town on the northeast border has caught fire. It is Hegang. In this era when the house is often tens of millions, Hegang stood up and told everyone with facts that the house can be sold at the price of cabbage.

At first, the news that Hegang Public Security Bureau recruited police to “send houses and cars” attracted everyone’s attention. Later, the media found that a house in Hegang was tens of thousands of yuan, only about 1000 yuan per square meter. Later, Hegang became synonymous with low house prices. As long as the house prices were low, it would be nicknamed “small Hegang in a province”.

However, no matter what other cities do, Hegang’s “throne” is always stable. Recently, the news that the post-80s takeout couple bought a house with full payment in Hegang for three months has been hot again, which makes people sigh: the house price is still low in Hegang.

Whenever people talk about why the house price in Hegang is so low, they always say that it is because of the serious loss of population and the depletion of resources in Hegang. However, with the release of the data of the seventh census, we found that the population decline of Hegang can not even rank in the top 20 of the country, and can only rank in the tenth place in Heilongjiang Province.

Is it because of the depletion of resources? In this list, Qitaihe City, Yichun City and Hegang in the same province are both resource exhausted cities recognized by the state. According to the data of anjuke, the house price in Yichun city is about 5000 yuan, twice that of Hegang, and that in Qitaihe City is 3400 yuan, about half higher than that of Hegang. This gap is still based on the fact that the GDP scale and population of the two cities are less than that of Hegang.

In that case, why is the house price in Hegang so low, so fresh and refined, so low as to be well-known in the country? This issue of “I don’t understand” takes you to understand why the house price in Hegang is so low.

Success also shed reform, failure also shed reform

In a word, the conclusion is that the reason for the low house price in Hegang lies in the shed reform.

What is shed reform? In short, it is to demolish and rebuild a large number of dilapidated houses, dilapidated houses and rotten homes. The so-called urban village is a shanty house, which is one of the objects of shed reform. In Hegang, a resource exhausted city, there are a large number of coal mined out areas, especially many shantytowns. Therefore, in 2008, the state launched the affordable housing project and began the national shed reform.

The first step in the shed reform is to demolish the house, which requires the resettlement of residents living in the shed reform house. Resettlement is divided into physical resettlement and monetary resettlement. Physical resettlement is to tear down a house and give you another house, sometimes even more than one; Monetized resettlement is to give you money and let you buy a house by yourself.

Monetized resettlement has directly created a famous group in China - “relocated households”, so there are not a few people who have become rich. As the new house has not been built yet, the relocated households have a huge amount of money but no house to live in, which is equivalent to a reduction in house supply and an increase in demand in the short term. Therefore, in most cities, the shed reform has played a role in raising house prices, and the real estate enterprises make a lot of money in this process.

But here in Hegang, the situation is somewhat different. Hegang hardly uses monetized resettlement in the process of shed reform, that is, the demolition only compensates the house without giving money. This has caused the imbalance between supply and demand in the real estate market.

According to the government work report of Hegang City during the 13th Five Year Plan period, from 2017 to 2020, Hegang City built 41000, 10000, 7000 and 6000 affordable housing units respectively. Although the data in 2016 were not released, according to the government work report in 2016, Hegang plans to build 3106 urban shed houses in 2016 and continue to build 7628 units; 8306 sets of coal mine shed will be newly built and 5439 sets will be continued; 1861 additional public rental housing units were built. As the data are very specific, we can speculate that 26000 affordable housing units will be built in Hegang in 2016.

Adding these figures together, about 90000 affordable housing units were newly built in Hegang during the 13th Five Year Plan period. What is the concept of this data?

Take Qitaihe City and Yichun City as an example. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, only 30000 new affordable housing units were built in Qitaihe City. Most of the city’s shed reform projects were monetized. For example, in 2017, 4167 units were resettled in kind and 19056 units were monetized, and 2.291 billion yuan of house purchase subsidies were paid; Yichun city will almost no longer build new affordable housing, but adopt transformation methods. For example, 11500 sets of shantytowns, 1526 rural dilapidated houses and 17 old communities will be transformed in 2016, 6111 shantytowns and 30 old communities will be transformed in 2018.

Even in Guangzhou, a first tier city, only 103200 affordable housing units were newly built during the 13th Five Year Plan period. In other words, the newly-built affordable housing in Hegang in the same period is more than 10000 sets less than that in Guangzhou. Not to mention that in the three years 16 years ago, 66000 sets were built in Hegang

According to the data of the seventh national census of Hegang City, the average number of households in Hegang is 2.06, and 156000 houses are enough for 320000 people, while there are only 89000 people in Hegang.

Perhaps it is fear that monetary compensation will accelerate the “escape” of relocated households from Hegang, or it is out of cautious consideration of financial expenditure. After all, Qitaihe City spent nearly 2.3 billion to compensate 19000 households, while the annual financial revenue of Hegang in 2020 was only 3.88 billion. In short, the shed reform project in Hegang has hardly reduced the local house supply, and may even increase a lot. Coupled with the long backlog of commercial houses that can not be sold, there are too many houses in Hegang.

When the supply and demand of houses are seriously unbalanced, houses have become “negative assets” in people’s hands - the rent is very low. Many houses can live for free as long as the tenants help pay the heating fee, which can not generate income at all. Landlords also need to bear the risk of falling house prices. Therefore, people sell their houses at “cabbage prices”, And this kind of property is what we see in the news.

Bid farewell to the shed reform and usher in the old reform

In the past decade, the shed reform has completed many historical missions, such as digesting real estate inventory, stimulating domestic demand and hedging the adverse effects of the downward trend of the economy. However, the negative effects of the shed reform can not be ignored. For example, the net inflow of population into cities has greatly raised local house prices and created a group of “overnight wealth”; In cities with a net outflow of population like Hegang, physical resettlement will lead to a sharp decline in house prices, and monetary resettlement will increase the financial burden.

therefore