Under the continuous fermentation of geopolitical events in Russia and Ukraine, European and American stock markets fell sharply across the board, the dollar and oil prices rose, and gold soared. On Monday, gold rose 1.3% from its intraday low to $1913.60, reaching the highest level near $1930.
On February 28, gold rose and fell last week, but it jumped high in the morning and did not continue to fall. On the whole, it remained above the 1900 level. The current overall direction is not clear. In terms of news, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, but negotiations also start. If the conflict ends, the gold probability will fall. Another positive factor is the global inflation level. Due to the epidemic, inflation has been relatively serious. With the progress of war and conflict, the prices of oil and commodities will be pushed up, which is even worse for inflation! The bad news is that as inflation continues, the Fed’s interest rate hike will be put on the agenda. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify in Congress this week. The outside world will pay close attention to him to understand whether geopolitical events may affect the path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike. Some analysts and investors said the rally late last week was more because investors expected the fed to take a less aggressive interest rate hike. Some officials said they believed that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine had added too much uncertainty to the economic situation, so the possibility of raising interest rates by 0.25% in March was greater than the 0.50% previously suggested by some officials. If the interest rate increase is moderate, the pressure on gold will be reduced. If the Russian Ukrainian incident continues and is difficult to be resolved peacefully in a short time, it will continue to support gold to remain high and even push it to a higher level.
Now, the gold short-term will maintain the operation within the range of 1930-1885. The key to the trend is whether the top can break through and stand firmly above 1930. If it stands firmly, it indicates that the market will continue to rise. Below is the support of 1880.
Bank of China Guangdong Branch Wang Gang
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