Many roads may lead there, but there’s only one Rome.

This is an edition discussing revolutions, trends, and some magic.

So, grab that Americano, and let’s go!

☕

The Purpose of it All

Off the bat, I think there is a purpose to us doing what we do.

In Carlota Perez’s Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, she argues that technological revolutions that preceded the Age of Information and Tech followed a cycle — one based on how a new technological revolution comes to be cemented in society. Each new techno-economic paradigm exists initially in strife with the old, which exists deep within the production structure, institutional framework, and socio-cultural environment of operation. But, gradually, inch by inch, with each new innovation, the paradigm permeates deeper. It is only when this battle has been won can the paradigm truly replace the old and establish itself deep within the market and solidify itself as a standard.

The Cycle

1. Early new technologies erupt leading to rapid innovation, setting up new infrastructures, disrupting the established fabric, and spreading new ways of doing things.

2. Full constellation of innovation, both technical and organizational, emerges that constitute the driving force of economic development

3. Turning point — a significant force overcomes the resistance of the old paradigm

4. The whole economy is rewoven and reshaped by the modernizing power of the triumphant paradigm,

5. Existent products approach maturity and market saturation, while few new products emerge.

The Post-Dotcom Era

The Dotcom era relays the trends mentioned in the cycle. Powering a period of accelerated online content creation and technological advancement, and driven by speculative investments and trading, the later part of the 90s saw an extraordinary expansion of the tech bubble only for it to pop thereafter in the early 2000s. Yet, today over 4 billion people have access to the Internet, across geographies and economies, and certain companies from the dotcom era are veritable giants of the modern era.

So, how did the Internet lead to sustained growth despite suffering such a setback?

At its core, the cycle follows the trends of irruption, frenzy, synergy, and maturity. The installation period begins with new technologies emerging in the pursuit of real-world applications, until it transforms into a frenzy especially as speculative investors pour capital into novel commercial applications. It is this frenzy that propagates the paradigm far and wide, building on hype and exaggerated superiority of innovation. This transpires into a mismatch in demand and supply profiles until reality intervenes, leading to the bursting of the bubble. However, it does not have to end there. Collapse also creates the conditions for institutional restructuring such that innovations that had emerged are brought into the fold of regulation and presented within a favorable context that leads to coherent growth with a corresponding increase in production and employment. Enter the “Golden Age.”

The Crypto Revolution

Perez considers the Golden Age as an age that is yet to come, driven by new technologies, like AI, IoT, robotics, 3D, and blockchain. However, If you are not unlike me, you would want to believe that the 2020s could mark the end of the dotcom bubble era, and the beginning of a new era… crypto.

In my view, we are in the maturation phase of the current technological revolution, complete with government synergy. Crypto is the obvious candidate for the next technological revolution and not simply an extension of the current era. Nonetheless, the economy will remain in the current paradigm for a while longer as the current installation period for crypto has a long way to run.

And, that's where we come in.

Halliday and the magic of deep tech investing

Technology is not synonymous with innovation. Entrepreneurs usually exploit a new technology to break a constraint, after which they usually go on to discover a radically new business model — a process that is slow, painful, and highly daunting. But, why rely on setbacks and course corrections, when you can do it right and right from the start?

What I propose is radical. In my view, startups don’t have to bother with research & development. Instead, they must implement business models that are repeatable and scalable. Of course, it does not apply to VC firms in biotech, which are about funding and backing technology, where RnD is what drives new discoveries and impact. But, in deep tech, where it’s about software development and application and powering the next wave of innovation, such models of implementation are possible. The idea is to focus on innovation, and solely that.

It’s worth noting, however, that investing in deep tech isn’t like investing in yet another CRM application or a photo sharing app. You rarely experience a “wow” moment, but when you meet a team doing something revolutionary, it almost feels like you’re witnessing magic.

And magic is rare.

We live in a world where anyone can Google the answer to any question, and people no longer revel in the magic of the unknown or the discovery of something new. In fact, we've lost that "spark of wonder" that our priors had felt when looking at an appliance and questioning, "How does this work?"

At Halliday, we seek to do precisely that. You, me, and the crew will be in the business of engineering innovations, creating models that can be implemented and repeated, and covering new ground in what’s possible. Together, we will be engineering wow moments and powering alphas and home runs.

I’m not exactly sure how much of a ripple our efforts can create in powering the tech revolution, or bringing about the Golden Age, but I’m certain that these will be all the stimulus we would need to keep building.

So, off to the races we go!