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CITIC Securities: market sentiment has dropped to near the low point since 2018, and the medium and long-term allocation cost performance of the current index is prominent
Judging from the structural characteristics of transaction congestion, the recent capital outflow mainly comes from hot money and retail investors. Judging from the valuation, redemption application and position, the position adjustment and position reduction of institutional funds are in the end, and the market sentiment has dropped to the low point since 2018. The dynamic P / E ratio of the main indexes has also fallen below the 25% quantile since 2010, of which the main blue chip index is below the 10% quantile since 2018. The long-term fundamentals of China’s economy will not change. The medium and long-term allocation cost performance of the current index is prominent.
It is expected that the steady growth target for the whole year will remain unchanged. With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the disclosure of quarterly reports, the three factors of interest rate increase of the US dollar as scheduled, and the three main lines of infrastructure, real estate and consumption are expected to usher in a synchronous recovery in May. The medium-term repair market is gradually approaching. It is suggested to continue to stick to the main line of steady growth and firmly layout the varieties with low valuation and expected low.
Haitong Securities: at present, it is in the layout period from the end of policy to the end of performance
① So far this year, the net value of the fund has fallen by more than 20%. In the previous years of 08, 11 and 18, the monetary policy was tight, while this year’s macro policy was loose, similar to that in 12 and 16 years. ② Historically, the market bottomed out in the following order: High Dividend Stocks > broad-based index > heavy fund stocks. Heavy fund stocks have fallen more recently, and the valuation of growth stocks has been at a historical low. ③ Drawing lessons from history, there is a layout period from the end of policy to the end of performance. At present, it is at this stage. First, focus on the main line of steady growth, such as finance, real estate and new infrastructure (more flexible), and gradually pay attention to the consumption related to economic recovery.
Guotai Junan Securities: the market has entered the bottom seeking stage, and the allocation value is expected to gradually appear
The market has entered the bottom seeking stage, and the allocation value is expected to gradually appear. The investment style is in the plate with low-risk characteristics, and the layout is related to the cycle and consumption of steady growth.
Stock selection idea: stocks with undervalued value, performance and definite performance. Industry recommendation: 1) the direction of holding physical assets with stable cash flow: coal, chemical resources, second tier central state-owned enterprises, real estate and banks; 2) Public investment direction dominated by government expenditure: construction, power grid, wind and solar power; 3) the reverse of the dilemma, the core concerns the supply side of the deep optimization: pig, Baijiu and consumer services, Q2 concerns about consumer building materials and steel investment opportunities.
CSC Securities: build a U-shaped bottom and bargain hunting layout
From the medium-term perspective, we continue to maintain the judgment that a shares are building a U-shaped bottom area. On the one hand, the policy bottom and credit bottom may have been roughly confirmed, and the subsequent profit bottom will be gradually completed in the medium term; On the other hand, the market valuation and sentiment indicators have also entered the bottom area of the market. Although there is still the possibility of continued decline in the follow-up, the space in terms of odds is relatively limited. Therefore, from the medium-term perspective, although the market bottom grinding process may continue to repeat, investors do not need to be too pessimistic and should patiently wait for the market to complete the construction of U-shaped bottom.
In the market bottom grinding period, investors should patiently wait for the market to complete the construction of U-shaped bottom. From the medium and long-term perspective, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, but should consider defensive counterattack and bargain hunting layout. Defensive counterattack: 1) high dividend varieties such as urban commercial banks, agricultural commercial banks and hydropower stocks are still the first choice for bottom warehouse configuration. 2) from the experience of the epidemic, the mandatory sectors such as food processing have excess returns at the peak of the number of confirmed cases, and they have relatively countercyclical profit fluctuations in the period of profit decline. 3) Textile and clothing is a typical mandatory consumption sector. At the same time, the expectation of RMB devaluation is strong in the near future, with both attack and defense in the short term. Bargain hunting layout post epidemic repair and steady growth overweight: 1) post epidemic recovery can be carried out at the same time on the production side and the consumer side. The production side repair mainly focuses on logistics, automobile, etc. the consumer side repair aims at the mandatory consumption (agricultural products processing, food processing) + local consumption (Hong Kong stock catering, leisure food, medical services, film and television, etc.) with reasonable valuation, faster repair speed and higher certainty in this round. 2) The real estate industry is still in a structure in which the policy continues to work, but the data has not yet warmed up. It is expected that the market’s expectations for policies will continue until the real estate data clearly pick up. 2) Infrastructure construction has been clearly launched, and the prosperity of building materials is guaranteed.
CICC: A-share sentiment index “grinding bottom”, still need to wait for a more clear inflection point
Current market characteristics: 1) from the perspective of trading, the corresponding turnover rate of recent market transactions has been close to about 2%, which is at a historical low, and the scale of net reduction of industrial capital has also decreased significantly; 2) In terms of valuation, after adjustment, the equity risk premium of CSI 300 is close to twice the standard deviation above the average again, and the valuation close to the low point in March 2020 is more extreme; 3) From the perspective of market behavior, the stable growth style with relative performance in the early stage showed signs of making up for the decline; 4) In terms of policies, the central bank, China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, safe and other departments have recently made positive statements on the recent economic situation and capital market environment, and resolutely maintained economic and market stability.
We believe that at present, the bottom characteristics have been partially shown in terms of policy, valuation, capital and behavior signals. Combined with the current growth environment, it may take time to wait for a clearer turning point. We still maintain the judgment that the current market is in the “bottom grinding” period. Although the short-term market may still be repeated, the opportunities are gradually greater than the risks in the medium and long term, and there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future performance. Structurally, we believe that the undervalued “steady growth” field still has a certain allocation value. We pay attention to the bottom-up stock selection opportunities in the consumption field, and we may still need to wait for the opportunity to create growth style.
At present, we pay attention to three directions: 1) in the “bottom grinding” stage of the market, the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as the industrial chain related to the stable demand of traditional infrastructure and real estate (real estate, building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.); 2) For the consumption in the middle and lower reaches with many early adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc; 3) Risks in the manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, have been released