New Knowledge and New Action: A 2025 Manifesto Inspired by Bayesian Decision Theory and Unity of Knowledge and Action

2025 marks a new era filled with uncertainty and opportunity. In this rapidly changing environment, making effective decisions and taking decisive action have become crucial challenges for everyone. Bayesian Decision Theory and the Chinese philosophy of the 'Unity of Knowledge and Action' are two profound wisdom traditions from different cultures: the former offers a scientific framework for dynamic optimization, while the latter emphasizes the unity of cognition and action. Together, they provide deep insights for work, life, and personal growth.

Bayesian Decision Theory: A Guide to Optimizing Uncertainty

Bayesian Decision Theory is a method for managing uncertainty, with its core principle being the dynamic adjustment of knowledge to optimize decisions. This is expressed in the following formula: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B)

• P(A|B): The probability of event A given new information B (posterior probability).

• P(A): Initial knowledge about A (prior probability).

• P(B|A): The probability of observing B if A occurs (likelihood).

• P(B): The overall probability of observing B.

  The essence of Bayesian theory lies in updating our understanding of events when new data emerges, thereby progressively approaching optimal decisions in uncertain environments.

  Unity of Knowledge and Action: Validating Cognition Through Practice

  The 'Unity of Knowledge and Action' is a pivotal idea proposed by the Chinese philosopher Wang Yangming, emphasizing the integration of cognition and action:

  1）Knowledge as the foundation of action: Cognition provides direction, but only action can verify its correctness.

  2）Action as the deepening of knowledge: Feedback from practice refines and optimizes cognition.

  3）Unity of knowledge and action: Cognition and action complement each other, driving growth and success in a continuous cycle.

  This philosophy reminds us that no matter how profound our understanding, only through action can real value be created.

  The Integration: A Path from Cognition to Optimized Action

  Combining Bayesian Decision Theory with the Unity of Knowledge and Action creates a comprehensive path for decision-making and growth:

  1）Starting with cognition: Form initial judgments based on existing knowledge and data.

  2）Validating through action: Conduct small-scale exploratory actions to gather feedback.

  3）Optimizing through feedback: Adjust knowledge and strategies based on practice results, progressively nearing the goal.

  This method emphasizes 'optimization through action, then further action and optimization,' making it an effective framework for managing uncertainty.

  Insights: Guiding Action with Dynamic Cognition and Refining Cognition Through Action

  The synthesis of Bayesian Decision Theory and the Unity of Knowledge and Action yields three key takeaways:

  1）Cognition is the foundation, but action is the breakthrough: Decision-making begins with knowledge, but only through action can knowledge be tested and real change occur.

  2）Optimize through feedback, then act again and optimize further: While uncertainty is unavoidable, it can be reduced through action and feedback, leading to better decisions over time.

  3）Growth comes from action, not daydreaming: Real progress arises from starting amidst imperfection, gaining experience through action, and dynamically refining both knowledge and methods.

  Conclusion: Action as the Key to Success

  Bayesian Decision Theory teaches us how to dynamically adjust cognition using scientific methods, while the Unity of Knowledge and Action reminds us to deepen cognition through practice. Together, they offer a reliable guide for navigating uncertainty and a practical pathway for personal growth.

  In 2025, uncertainty remains a constant. Only by taking action, continuously refining our cognition, and optimizing strategies in a dynamic environment can we find the path to success. This is the wisdom of science and philosophy and the ultimate inspiration for facing the future.