Macro interpretation: Tonight at 20:30, global financial markets are holding their breath as the May core PCE price index for the United States is about to be released. Economists generally expect the year-on-year growth rate of this data to reach 2.6%. If the actual data is lower than expected, as predicted by Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, the path for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates will suddenly become clear. Coincidentally, just before the data was released, the three major stock index futures in the United States collectively hit historical peaks: the S&P 500 futures broke through 6145 points, and the Nasdaq futures reached a high of 20180 points. Generally speaking, this linkage effect is becoming a key driving force for Bitcoin's breakout - if the Federal Reserve turns loose as scheduled, the continuous influx of institutional funds may push Bitcoin to break through the strong resistance zone of $109000. The optimism in the market is not groundless. An institutional report has revealed subtle signals of policy shift: despite Powell's hawkish stance at the June FOMC meeting, several Federal Reserve governors quickly shifted to a dovish stance within a week, and even Powell himself showed a clear softening of attitude during congressional hearings. Behind this rare rapid turn, political pressure cannot be ignored - after President Trump publicly criticized the Fed's policies, the Fed's communication strategy underwent a dramatic adjustment. At the same time, US inflation has fallen to 2.38%, and the unemployment rate has remained stable at 4.2% for 12 consecutive months, weakening the rationale for maintaining high interest rates. What is even more exciting is the integration of traditional finance and the crypto world entering the deep waters. Guotai Junan International has been approved by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its license, becoming the first Chinese securities firm to provide virtual asset trading services. The news has stimulated its stock price to soar nearly 200% in a single day. This is not only a milestone event for institutions to enter the market, but also marks a substantial breakthrough in the compliance process of encrypted assets in the mainstream financial system. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) in the United States requires Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to evaluate the possibility of including cryptocurrencies as collateral for housing loans, opening the door to the trillion dollar mortgage market. Despite industry concerns that this move may sow systemic risks in the financial system, it is undeniable that the asset nature of cryptocurrencies is gaining unprecedented official endorsement. The flow of funds data reveals the delicate balance of the current market. The current monthly average transaction traffic of altcoins is only about 1.7 billion US dollars, significantly lower than the average annual level of 2.5 billion US dollars. This moderate trend suggests that investors are shifting from speculative assets to mainstream currencies for sedimentation, forming a typical bullish mid-term accumulation characteristic. Although the cryptocurrency market is still driven by emotions, a comprehensive collapse requires a black swan event similar to Terra or FTX levels. Against the backdrop of increasingly improved regulatory frameworks and continuous inflow of institutional capital, the cryptocurrency market is more likely to enter a long-term slow bull market. Of course, there are still hidden worries. There are market warnings that the US fiscal deficit rate may remain at a high 7% of GDP, and debt concerns are like a hanging sword. The Trump administration lacks substantial plans to increase taxes or cut spending, and the only way to alleviate this is through a significant reduction in borrowing costs - a subtle game with Federal Reserve policy. Technically speaking, Bitcoin fell below the key support level of the 21 week moving average of $98532 earlier this week due to the impact of the Middle East situation. This position is considered a watershed between long and short positions. If geopolitical risks ferment again or PCE data unexpectedly rises, short-term adjustment risks cannot be ignored. As traditional stock indexes go to the cloud, the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a historic transformation. From the macro trend of the Federal Reserve's policy shift, to the institutional breakthrough of Chinese securities firms' license breaking, and to the potential docking of the trillion dollar mortgage market, the high energy of Bitcoin before its breakthrough is quietly accumulating in multiple dimensions. Despite the shadow of debt and geopolitical risks still surging like undercurrents, the fusion train of the crypto world and traditional finance has already sounded its horn - this time, its destination may be the true mainstream financial landscape.

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, based on the latest on chain data, the group of long-term Bitcoin holders has achieved a record breaking net increase of 800000 BTC holdings in the past 30 days, far exceeding the historical average. Similar scale monthly increases have only occurred six times before, including mid 2021 and late 2024, all accompanied by significant upward trends in subsequent prices. Currently, the cost range for long-term holders is concentrated between $95000 and $107000, while the average cost for short-term holders is around $93000. At the same time, the proportion of long-term holders has risen to 68% of the total circulation, and early miners have shown strong reluctance to sell, selling only a small amount of BTC during the year, highlighting the tight supply side of the market. This increase in holdings reflects the firm confidence of long-term investors in BTC as a value storage asset. Historical patterns show that similar scale accumulations often indicate turning points in the price cycle, possibly due to market supply-demand imbalances and strengthened investor expectations. The holding cost range can serve as a key support level, and when the price approaches this level, a decrease in selling pressure may boost the upward trend. In terms of the impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially BTC, increasing holdings has reduced the supply of circulation, combined with a reluctance to sell mentality, which may exacerbate scarcity and push prices to break through historical highs; However, if the macro environment deteriorates or short-term holder cost pressures intensify, the market may experience volatility, but overall, a structure dominated by long-term holders helps stabilize the market and support the continuation of the bull market.