Macro interpretation: US President Trump confirms that Israel and Iran have reached a ceasefire, despite mutual accusations of violations, the substantive conflict has not escalated. This situation far exceeds market expectations, driving a rapid rebound in global risk appetite. The Tel Aviv Index in Israel rose 1.4%, while the Saudi Arabia and Dubai indices rose over 2%, and European stocks generally rose. For the cryptocurrency market, the decline in geopolitical safe haven demand coincides with technical support - Bitcoin received strong buying at the $99000 level, and on chain data showed that long-term holders took the opportunity to increase their holdings, while short-term speculative trading gradually exited. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's congressional hearing this week can be called the 'toughest test in a decade'. Trump publicly pressured on social media, accusing Powell of refusing to cut interest rates, causing the United States to miss out on $800 billion in gains, and suggesting that Europe has already cut interest rates 10 times. Strangely, there has also been a key split within the Federal Reserve: Trump appointed governors Bauman and Waller publicly support the July rate cut, and both are seen as potential successors to Powell after his term expires in 2026. According to CME data, the market's pricing for the probability of a rate cut in July has risen to 20.7%, and the latest statement by Federal Reserve official Goolsby that "if the impact of trade policy disappears, we should continue to cut interest rates" further strengthens dovish expectations. When the market focuses on the game of interest rate cuts, a deeper transformation is taking place. The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced a study to include cryptocurrency holdings in the eligibility review for mortgage loans. The agency oversees trillion dollar housing finance giants such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Symbolically, FHFA Director Pruitt himself holds $500000 to $1 million worth of Bitcoin and Solana. If this move is implemented, it means that cryptocurrency will deeply intervene in the US housing credit system for the first time, opening up imaginative space for DeFi collateral applications. At the same time, stablecoin issuer Circle's valuation has exceeded $60 billion, almost equivalent to its circulating $61.2 billion USDC. This marks the acceleration of capital flow towards the cryptocurrency infrastructure layer - compared to the $78.3 billion market value of trading platform Coinbase, the market is giving pure stablecoin issuers a valuation premium for the first time. Combining the advancement of the GENIUS stablecoin bill in the United States with the implementation of the MiCA framework in the European Union, the compliance process is reshaping the valuation logic of the industry. The short-term momentum and long-term narrative of BTC, as well as the driving logic presented by the current cryptocurrency market, include liquidity expectations, an increase in the probability of Fed interest rate cuts directly lowering the US dollar index, a decrease in discount rates in risk asset valuation models, and support for deflationary assets such as BTC; There is also traditional market integration, from mortgage loan qualification assessment to financial institution balance sheet allocation, and the increase in penetration rate of encrypted assets brings incremental funds; And capital is gathering towards stablecoins, custody, and settlement layers, consolidating the market foundation while reducing systemic risks. Technically, Bitcoin has effectively broken through the key resistance of $105000. If it stabilizes at this level, the next target may point to the pressure zone of $110000-115000. But we need to be wary of the risk of short-term geopolitical fluctuations and the gap between the Federal Reserve's expectations - if Powell releases hawkish signals during congressional hearings, it may trigger profit taking. When Bitcoin emerges from its safe haven asset label, when stablecoin valuations are on par with first tier exchanges, and when mortgage lending institutions begin to evaluate your crypto holdings - the boundary between the traditional financial system and the crypto ecosystem is dissolving. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are no longer just a choice of interest rate tools, but also a pivot for the cryptocurrency market to compete with traditional capital. On this pivot, the outline of a new era of encryption driven by infrastructure and supported by compliance is gradually becoming clearer.

BTC K-line analysis: According to CoinAnk AI intelligent analysis, the market analysis report is as follows: Main support level: 100941.07 USDT Main pressure level: 107443.47 USDT Current trend: Excessive volatility

Comprehensive technical indicators: Moving average system: bullish arrangement MA5（104611.17）> MA10（102955.77）> MA20（102485.18）， The short-term moving average is arranged in a bullish pattern, indicating a strong short-term trend. But MA120 (105232.55) is slightly higher than the current price, so we need to be wary of long-term moving average suppression. MACD: Golden Fork Running DIF (130.37) crosses DEA (432.13), and the bar (562.50) continues to enlarge, indicating an increase in bullish momentum. BOLL: The price is close to the upper track The current price (105167.70) is close to the upper limit (106053.78), with a% B value of 0.84%, indicating that the price is in a strong range, but caution should be exercised against upper limit pressure. RSI: Neutral to Strong RSI6 (71.45) is close to the overbought zone, while RSI12 (60.97) and RSI14 (59.01) are neutral and strong. There may be short-term pullback demand, but it is not severely overbought. KDJ: Golden Fork Running K（81.91）> D（75.99）> J（93.75）， Short term overbought, but the trend is still bullish.

Indicator data: Funding rate: 0.00436100% The rate is neutral, with no extreme long short sentiment (BTC rate absolute value less than 0.02%), and the market sentiment is stable. Changes in trading volume: Recently, the trading volume has increased in the past 4 hours, accompanied by price increases, indicating good coordination between volume and price. However, attention should be paid to the contraction of some high-level candlesticks, and caution should be exercised against short-term profit taking. Capital flow data: The net inflow of 24-hour contract funds (900401593.66 USDT) is significant, but the net outflow of 4H funds (266237913.10 USDT) shows a divergence in short-term funds. The net outflow of 24H spot funds (119521511.46 USDT) indicates that some funds have left the market, and a comprehensive judgment should be made based on the flow of contract funds.

Analysis results: Direction: Be cautious and go long The short-term trend is bullish, but close to the pressure level (107443.47) and RSI is overbought in the short term, so we need to be alert to the risk of a pullback.Steady: Wait for the pullback to MA5 support and build positions in batches. Stop loss setting: 3% -5%, stop loss below MA10. Target price range: 107443.47 (first resistance level) to 109997.93 (second resistance level), corresponding to a yield of 2.2% -4.6%. If it breaks through 107443.47, it can be held until 109997.93. Reminder: This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!