Macro interpretation: The historic passage of the GENIUS Act by the US Senate marks a crucial step towards federal regulation of stablecoins. This bill, pushed by Republican Senator Bill Hagerty, establishes a national regulatory framework for the chaotic stablecoin market for the first time. Although the bill still needs to be coordinated with the House version of the Stablecoins Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy Act, it has already sent a positive signal to the market that the regulatory framework is gradually taking shape. As the core link between traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem, the compliance process of stablecoins will significantly lower the threshold for mainstream capital entry. At the same time, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting tonight to discuss easing the requirements for the supplementary leverage ratio of large banks, which may exempt treasury bond bonds and other safe assets, and release the liquidity of banks participating in the treasury bond market. If the policy is implemented, coupled with the current market expectation that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates within the year will reach 85.5%, the expectation of loose US dollar liquidity will continue to rise. This macro background subtly echoes Zhou Xiaochuan's warning at the Lujiazui Forum today: global monetary policy coordination is still in a "three no states" (no institutions, no tools, no consensus), and the spillover effects of reserve currency countries' policies are increasingly prominent. The potential shift of the Federal Reserve is like throwing a stone into the global capital pool, with ripples spreading to the risk asset sector. On chain data is revealing the resilient nature of Bitcoin's bull market. Market analysis reveals that the current selling behavior of long-term holders (LTH) is approaching historical lows, and this typical "reluctance to sell" state often corresponds to a market accumulation period. Historical experience shows that after the occurrence of similar signals in the past four times, Bitcoin has risen by 18% -25% in 6-8 weeks. More importantly, the potential for changes in holding days and on chain indicators such as MVRV Z-score (current value close to neutral) have synchronously verified the accumulation of upward momentum. This phenomenon of "old hands holding their positions" resonates with technical signals - although the predictive power of global liquidity models for BTC trends has weakened, Bitcoin's performance of sticking to the support range of $105000-110000 still conforms to its predicted 13 week oscillation rhythm. If this technology structure is stable, it is not impossible to hit $140000 in late summer. However, beneath the prosperity lies structural challenges. The mining community is experiencing "pain after halving": data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin transaction fees in June has fallen below 1%, hitting a new low since 2022. Despite the block reward value remaining at a high of $327000 due to the rise in coin prices, Compass Mining pointed out that the overall industry revenue is still close to historical lows. The paradox of "high coin price, low income" is rooted in insufficient online activity (with an average transaction fee of only $1.45) and intense competition for computing power. The harsh reality forces mining sites to accelerate technological iteration - only enterprises with efficient mining machines and low electricity can weather the cycle, and industry reshuffling is inevitable. Institutional dynamics reflect the strategic adjustment of capital. Cathie Wood's Ark Invest sold off for two consecutive days, cashing out nearly $100 million, as Circle's stock price hit a new high. This is in stark contrast to investing $373 million to build a position on the first day of Circle's listing. Although this operation has raised doubts in the market about stablecoin concept stocks, it essentially reflects the profit taking of institutions after the regulatory framework becomes clear, rather than a bearish view on the industry. The underlying logic is that the advancement of the GENIUS Act has reduced policy uncertainty, and early investors' choice to settle for safety is also in line with the laws of capital operation. Regulatory ice breaking opens the institutional ceiling, accumulation on the chain indicates upward momentum, and expectations of loose liquidity provide macro fuel. Despite the short-term difficulties in the mining industry and fluctuations caused by institutional portfolio adjustments, the core logic of the market remains unchanged - the global demand for non sovereign value storage is still expanding. As the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window approaches and the regulatory path for stablecoins becomes clearer, coupled with the fermentation of the on chain accumulation cycle, Bitcoin is likely to usher in a new round of value discovery after volatile consolidation. Investors need to pay attention not only to price fluctuations, but also to the efficiency of mining clearance, the speed of regulatory implementation, and the turning point of US dollar liquidity. These three variables will jointly draw a roadmap for Bitcoin to hit a new high.

BTC data analysis: According to CoinAnk data, according to the latest market trends in June 2025, the proportion of Bitcoin network fee income has sharply decreased to below 1%, reaching the lowest level in three years. Despite the rise in coin prices keeping block rewards at a high level of $327000, the total income of miners is still approaching a historical low, forming a significant phenomenon of "yield divergence". At its root, on the one hand, it is due to the weak activity of on chain transactions (with an average transaction fee of only $1.45 per transaction), and on the other hand, it is an inevitable result of the continuous intensification of competition for computing power across the entire network. This dual pressure is driving deep transformation in the mining industry: efficient mining machine iteration and low-cost power layout have become the key to survival, and the industry reshuffle process is accelerating. From the perspective of market impact, the continuous decline in the proportion of transaction fees may weaken the foundation of network security. The excessive dependence of miners' income on block rewards will amplify the impact of coin price fluctuations on computing power, especially in the context of the halving of block subsidies to 3.125 BTC. If the computing power significantly decreases due to profit pressure, it may weaken the Bitcoin network's ability to resist 51% attacks. In the medium to long term, this structural dilemma will force the accelerated implementation of second tier expansion plans and drive mining companies to optimize operational efficiency through mergers and acquisitions, such as the CleanSpark acquisition of mining sites. Although the short-term market volatility index has fallen to a four month low, the current situation of miners' holdings remaining below the level of the bull market cycle (1.8 million BTC) suggests that if selling pressure intensifies, it may constrain the upward space of BTC prices.