catalogue

1. This week's large token unlocking data;

2. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows for the week;

3. Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics;

4. Interpretation of BTC clearing map data;

5. This week's key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market.

6. This week's large token unlocking data;   Coinank data shows that tokens such as SUI, ENA, and DYDX will experience significant unlocking this week. The following are UTC+8 times, including: Sui (SUI) will unlock 44 million tokens worth approximately $127 million on July 1st at 8:00, accounting for 1.3% of the circulation;Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens worth approximately $11.29 million on July 2nd at 3:00 PM, accounting for 0.67% of the total circulation;Dydx (DYDX) will unlock 4.17 million tokens worth approximately $2.25 million on July 1st at 8:00, accounting for 0.56% of the total circulation;EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 1.29 million tokens worth approximately $1.57 million on July 1st at 23:00, accounting for 0.41% of the flow.

We believe that the large-scale unlocking events of tokens such as SUI, ENA, DYDX, and EIGEN this week, although routine market operations, should be cautious of their potential impact. Token unlocking is often seen as a bearish factor, as early investors or team members may sell to cash out, increase market supply, and trigger short-term downward pressure on prices; Especially in high volatility environments, such events can amplify market sentiment fluctuations and lead to liquidity shortages. However, the unlocking ratio this time is generally low, accounting for only 1.3% of the highest circulation and 0.41% of the lowest. Historical data shows that small-scale unlocking has limited impact on the overall market and is often buffered by project fundamentals or external factors. As a leader in decentralized derivatives, DYDX's independent chain ecosystem has strong performance, high staking rate, and a shift in revenue distribution mechanism towards community holders, which may enhance long-term confidence and partially offset unlocking pressure. In contrast, although SUI is positioned as a high-performance public chain, its unlocking value is relatively high (about $127 million), and it needs to pay attention to its market capacity; However, the unlocking scale of ENA and EIGEN is relatively small, and their impact may be even weaker. Investors are advised to prioritize the technological progress and ecological health of the project, rather than short-term events. In the current market environment, unlocking events may trigger local fluctuations, but systemic risks are controllable, and robust projects such as DYDX are expected to demonstrate resilience.

1. Comprehensive overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick reading of the weekly rise and fall of popular currencies/sector fund flows According to CoinAnk data, in the past week, the cryptocurrency market was divided by conceptual sectors, with only Binance Smart Chain, AI Big Data, Gaming, Fan Tokens, and RWA achieving net inflow of funds, while Launchpool had a smaller outflow scale. In the past 7 days, the list of currency gains is as follows (selecting the top 500 market capitalization), with tokens such as EOS, CTK, PENGU, MOVE, SEI, and MOG showing relatively high gains. This week, priority should continue to be given to trading opportunities in strong currencies.

2. Bitcoin spot ETF fund dynamics. According to CoinAnk data, the Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $2.22 billion in the previous week, lasting for three consecutive weeks. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest weekly net inflow is the Blackrock Bitcoin ETFiBIT, with a weekly net inflow of $1.31 billion. Currently, the total historical net inflow of IBIT has reached $52.31 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net outflow in a single week last week was Grayscale ETFGBTC, with a net outflow of $5.69 million. Currently, the GBTC has a total historical net outflow of $23.25 billion. We believe that this reflects the continued increasing interest of institutional investors in Bitcoin, supporting its positioning as a speculative asset, where capital inflows primarily come from expectations of high returns rather than actual payment purposes. The overall net inflow indicates stable market confidence, which may drive up demand for Bitcoin and stabilize prices, while the outflow of GBTC highlights some investors' profit taking behavior. For the cryptocurrency market, especially BTC, this strengthens its role as a diversified investment tool, which may drive short-term price increases. Although there are fluctuations in the market (such as a net outflow of $2.61 billion in February 2025), the sustained trend of net inflows suggests that the Bitcoin market is moving towards efficiency, and institutional involvement has accelerated this process. However, historical data warns of high volatility risks, and investors need to pay attention to changes in capital flows and market sentiment.

3. BTC clearing map data. According to CoinAnk's clearing map data, if BTC breaks through $112000, setting a new historical high, the mainstream CEX's accumulated short clearing intensity will reach $3.27 billion. On the contrary, if Bitcoin falls below $104500, the cumulative liquidation strength of mainstream CEX orders will reach $6.75 billion. Considering that BTC has been fluctuating at a high level around $100000 to $110000 for almost two months and is also approaching a turning point. We believe that the liquidation intensity is not the actual amount to be liquidated, but rather a measure of the potential intensity of market liquidity shocks after prices touch by comparing the density of adjacent price liquidation clusters. Current data shows that if BTC breaks through $112000 and reaches a historic high, the clearing intensity of $3.27 billion in short orders may trigger a "short squeeze" effect - a large number of short positions forced to close will accelerate the influx of buying orders, forming a positive feedback loop to drive prices soaring, which is consistent with market behavior when key resistance levels are broken in historical data. On the contrary, if it falls below $104500, the multi order liquidation intensity of $6.75 billion exposes the vulnerability of high leverage long positions, which may trigger a "long kill long" chain reaction, leading to panic selling and amplifying short-term downside risks, highlighting the extreme game of the market at key price levels. Overall, this threshold range reflects the deep confrontation between long and short positions, and investors need to be alert to market fluctuations caused by liquidity waves and control leverage reasonably to avoid stampede risks.

4. This week's key macro events and key forecasts and interpretations of the cryptocurrency market. CoinAnk data shows that: June 30th, Monday, Chicago PMI for June in the United States; Binance Wallet launches exclusive TGE for NodeOps (SIDE); On Tuesday, July 1st, the final value of the US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; June ISM Manufacturing PMI, May JOLTs Job Vacancies, and May Construction Expenditure Monthly Rate in the United States;On Wednesday, July 2nd, the ADP employment figures for June in the United States;On Thursday, July 3rd, the number of initial jobless claims and May trade account for the week ending June 21st in the United States; The US June non farm payroll report and June unemployment rate will be released in advance; On Friday, July 4th, the final value of the June S&P Global Services PMI in the United States; June ISM Non Manufacturing PMI and May Factory Order Monthly Rate in the United States; Musk: Grok 4 is scheduled to be released after July 4th. From June 30th to July 6th, numerous officials from the Federal Reserve will give speeches; Trump announces that the US will hold talks with Iran this week.

We believe that the June Chicago PMI and the July 1st ISM Manufacturing PMI form a leading indicator combination, and caution should be exercised against signals of "temporary improvement" in the manufacturing industry. If the data exceeds expectations or confirms the production recovery driven by supply chain repair; If lower than expected, strengthen concerns about stagflation. The service sector PMI (July 4th) needs more attention, as history shows that its unexpected contraction has caused severe market volatility, and the current service sector has made a significant contribution to inflation stickiness.Deepening contradictions in the labor market structure: Combining job vacancies in JOLTs with ADP employment, if job vacancies continue to be higher than the current ratio of 1.2, it will highlight the problem of labor market mismatch. Special attention should be paid to the increasing risk of occupational mismatch among the higher education population, as well as the shift in the proportion of "no vacancy recruitment" exceeding 16%. The early release of non farm payroll data may imply volatility risks, and it is necessary to focus on analyzing the transmission of wage growth rate to the Federal Reserve's policies.Trump's prediction of US Iran talks, coupled with intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials, may amplify market sensitivity. History has shown that political cycles may distort the interpretation of economic data, and if geopolitical conflicts push up oil prices, they will strengthen cost pressures on the service industry. Technological events (such as the release of Grok 4) may become risk appetite regulators, but caution should be taken against the liquidity siphon effect.The core contradiction lies in the fact that if the manufacturing PMI strengthens but the service PMI falls, coupled with non farm payroll growth exceeding expectations, it may force the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish in the political cycle, exacerbating the "tightening recession" expectation game. It is recommended to use a dynamic mismatch model to track cross departmental data divergence and be alert to the combination risk of "high vacancy rate+low turnover rate" in the job market.In the short term (data intensive period will amplify volatility, if non farm payroll exceeds 200000 or ISM service PMI>55, it may trigger "hawkish panic" and provide key support for BTC testing; On the contrary, if employment weakens (ADP<150000), it will boost expectations of interest rate cuts and push up prices. The medium-term trend shows that institutional entry still constitutes support, but geopolitical variables such as tariff policies and US Iran talks may become new sources of disturbance. BTC may experience high volatility this week, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pricing changes in the market before and after the non farm payroll announcement regarding the probability of the Federal Reserve's September interest rate cut. This will become a key catalyst for directional choices.