This is a Hong Kong web3 carnival essay.
Maybe a little harsh, but want to talk about those past things, why they were falsified.
1. Hong Kong web3 CarnivalDo you feel cold?
Cold, this is also the first impression of many people, once the conference was crowded, surrounded by people, and this time is almost familiar with the project party, vip room empty no one, there are not many people to see the exhibition, and where to follow the mobility and creativity? But as more people wear suits, the underlying logic of the industry seems to be being restructured.
From the source of the cold touch, some people say that the layout of the venue is very strange, it seems empty, some people say that the Vientiane is insufficient, it is difficult to invite guests, the lack of project parties, and even the price of the speech on the stage are returning to calm, some voices are more like proving that I am still alive, not dead.
As far as I can see, the relationship between East and West is still hot and cold.
Markedly fewer Western faces, three years on, in the web3 space (and maybe more).
Even if Vitalik came to the scene, in addition to the photo social encounter of fans, the rest is the unilateral responsibility of some bald guy who plays a bad industry.
Deeply rooted are differences in culture and aspirations.
Those who only hold the technology of web3 as a casino influence the overall direction, with the screenshot of flipping three bananas per cycle, to build more slots, lure more gamblers, and siphon off the new achievements of the builder.
The West's collective appeal to the East is, at most, when you are a user, not a partner.
Is this someone else not playing with it, or is there something wrong with you?
Or is the pursuit itself not a thing, but also expect to play with each other?
2.Is RWA right?
Every keynote speech, there are always more than half of the photo fraud, when the content can keep up with their title?
RWA is the mainstream narrative of this year, but is there much difference in underlying logic between it and the NFT of 3 years ago, the inscription of 2 years ago, and the Meme of 1 year ago?
Take a closer look at the underlying foundation of each cycle and you will find that all things, once taken into the big picture, will eventually be right and just.
RWA is no more than a cover for a new macro perspective.
But in fact, grand narratives tend to ignore the rights of tens of thousands of individuals without limitation, just like a feeling that "everything is a dog", and sometimes even dogs are just numbers.
Seizing a mainstream narrative can certainly take off, phantom seized sol and meme airdrop, bitget seized TG ecology, go multi-chain + annual narrative, their annual growth is great.
But growth in this industry is never difficult, it is difficult to retain (resources and publicity to do, than the traditional Internet growth outbreak will have more flywheel effect).
The things to do with the chain are still limited, and basically not just needed daily, after hundreds of wallet wars, even the most hot unisat last year has not been opened for a long time, nor do you need to open, adding sadness.
RWA organizations are also encountering the PPT scam of the Web2 elite halo in the last wave of narratives, and people who talk about "empowering ecology" but have not even used their wallets.
Interestingly, the BTC event does not care about narrative, which is very hopeful, after all, those who chase narrative generally cannot catch up, and those who create narrative still have the opportunity to turn over.
3.V All right?
What kind of conspiracy is more frightening?
It is, I suppose, the nature of tragedy that turns it into a trap of choice between burning self-destruction and decadent slow suicide, and the most terrifying thing is that whichever path you choose adds shackles to the exploration of the other.
V has been standing on a difficult choice, no matter how the choice can not be divorced from the personal tragedy or the collective tragedy.
It is true that V is a genius, V is the first in the industry in terms of hard work, V is also very young, if the future of Ethereum is where, the biggest opportunity is such a young brain and vision, bringing unlimited growth potential.
But behind every feature is a disadvantage
Thirty has the disadvantages of being thirty,Too easy to be surrounded by small people, too easy to fall into the honey of words.
V's speech in each venue is completely bet on L2, which is quite right, there are a lot of logical self-consistent reasons.
One of the great reasons is that EF is best at the chain, not the chain, he has unlimited chain creation, but how to link to the chain needs partners to do, but EF has been cake can not move, then you may as well put yourself as a platform to empty a booth, welcome each project to bring their own resources, EF to give you all the names you want.
But who passed these reasons on to V? Why has it become his deep-rooted expansion direction?
If L1 itself is good enough, do we need the empty city of L2? What about the gap between L2?
The next phase of EF upgrades, starting to return to the L1 experience,The biggest resistance is not from L1 itself, but L2s.
This is the current choice trap.
3.web3+ game is not willing but a trap
Dozens of venues before and after this run, or the web3 game venue dare to say, perhaps because there is no one, so more after the earth's perception, ground gas to say it.
My initial entry into the industry is also from loot and Xie and the broken circle of running shoes, but now everyone has woken up, players have woken up, investors have woken up, do not give up is once the obsession.
What is still invested here can only be masturbated: ecological occupation, defensive positioning, considering the cost.
In the past, there were countless good reasons for games to be a good business, and even three years ago, game plate control was an opportunity for web3 games to explode. The hardware requirements of the game are naturally different from other financial scenarios, so the web3 game public chain has always been a progressive direction.
But from play to earn, onchain, tg game, it all looks like a trap.
Because the b circle does the game, its dopamine incentive is actually not as good as the inscription.
At the time of the inscription, during the fever period, which people did not wake up naturally at 6 o 'clock, and it was difficult to fall asleep at 3 o 'clock. What games are more effective when they have the purest, straight to the core incentive.
But do not pull new users between each other, are each other's game guide to do high data to fool investors, once only falsifying account data, and now it is joint audit together to falsify, even the people who invest in web3 games, themselves do not play games, only played Contra.
Currency circle to do fi, do not engage in the game.
And game companies take web3 as a new field to make games, from the perfect world to the Korean game chaebol, and then to the Western meta-universe grand narrative, are hanging in the wasteland left by the b circle to make games.
Before and after, it is this 100W spoiled users, not on the chain do not play, on the chain only play financial attributes, since to play financial attributes, it is better to play meme.
If from 0 education external users into the chain, discover why? Bitter user education, who is willing to do it?
But the game itself is really a good business, Miha tour even in the periphery to provide him with a 10% increase in total revenue, but this gross profit can be 70%.
Now the market is indeed unable to find the game profit to do all the team, and the game as a product that provides emotional value, even in the process will produce value, compared to many products on the chain of pure result value (such as the laborious public chain, no one to play the value completely lost).
Therefore, the game will continue to fool some investors who do not give up.
600 million valid addresses, think this is the Internet in 1994, and then save up, the thicker the dung, the more fragrant the flowers.
4.Is a bear market coming?
In recent years, I have seen a relatively bear but not the most bear era, and I have also seen the most breakthrough era, and every narrative confusion period seems to be around the hk conference.
After bitcoin asia last year, the inscription is cool, the market is cold, the pressure of the project becomes greater, the more honey operation, the more difficult it is to think calmly.
This conference, as always, has a lot of faces, but the project has changed 2-3 rounds, although continuous entrepreneurs are always ready to laugh, but more worthy of cherish.
Those who have seen cycles know that bear markets are Builder opportunities.
With only years of experience stepping on pits, it's now clearer what can survive.
The "enterprise blockchain" movement was widely seen as a dead end, but it has been revived with the emergence of L2s, with Soneium being a prime example.
The increasingly ineffective "decel" community, a community that can rant about how immoral and bad various mainstream actors are, but can't really offer a better alternative.
But these are pits
DeFi was meant to replace banks, NFT was meant to redefine ownership, and the metaverse was meant to be a new gathering place for people. But after billions of dollars in promises, the only thing that's really in widespread use are stablecoins, and their counterpart trading pairs and markets.
Some people say that no re-purchase is a hard business, to constantly find new users, some scenes also superimpose long-term after-sales service, but also constantly entangled in the old customers, until the old customers fail. In fact, high liquidity, lack of core retention, are also hard business.
In this business, the biggest loss in this round is the new vulnerable group: VC, from once giving the project guidance, to seize a good project is a hundred times the income, to now be cut by the project side, rarely make money. TGE after the sale of goods is also the project side and the market maker first make money.
I don't dare to put it down. I lose every one. The problem is not so much the industry as the operation of the early project side.
The era of large-scale infrastructure construction by narrative is over, and projects with high valuation and low circulation have no living space, and all VC project valuation systems are being reconstructed, and old projects are being reshuffled.
In the new cycle, don't put too much faith in policy.
Hong Kong has changed a lot, but the bottom is still saying: "We accept it, as long as we don't screw it up."
In today's market, institutions have taken over. It is no longer a situation where small entrepreneurial ideas can be challenged. Either adapt and learn the game, or be eliminated. Single-direction dominance is not easy, and the collaboration between institutions and entrepreneurs leveraging each other has only just begun.
5.Where's the opportunity at the back?
It seems to be scolding, but those who do bad things, is to spray, spray finished to return to reason, after all, these years are not all a chicken hair.
After the storm of inscriptions, it began to be caught off guard, and half a year later, it was left with layers of optimization of infrastructure.
Today's meme storm has also gone through half, from gmgn to Axiom, leaving behind products that understand the needs and master the underlying technology of the chain. A lot of performance is not proficient at the bottom, can not do the ultimate.
With the outbreak of Gmgn, but do not know how to divide the cake, forcing quality talent to flow in the industry.
In the crowd, after entering the deep water area, it has completed the popularization of user education for a group of people, and the transformation of scientific research in universities, so that the talent base of the future industry is very solid.
In the direction, the chain has been disenchantment, the capital only runs in the direction of the big agreement has also changed, at this time, although the VC is more cautious, but there is a clear business model of the user group of the tool layer, the application layer has ushered in the opportunity for objective evaluation.
Cryptography has reached a bottleneck, and the user's operating objects are also breaking the limit.
Because a lot of behavior in the real world can't be proven by cryptography, and not everything can be solved by decentralization. The bottleneck of efficiency and technology is there, every bottleneck is an opportunity, and the future will not always continue the unbreakable centralized and decentralized divide, some, only the two sides make a step.
Before you have a clear goal, what you need to do is to protect your attention, improve your ability to identify what is junk, and survive the fluctuations of the cycle, maintain a good mood, and live longer.
6.finally
Some of my disappointment with the industry is true, and it stems from the high expectations of the early days, which completely took the term web3 as the next generation of infrastructure-level scale.
But now, it's much more rational to just think of him as crypto finance 3.
Some attempts that do not match crypto finance do not need to be concerned.
There is always such a group of people in the world who are seeking freedom, and it is good to make the best tools and facilities for these people.
When you read about your current friends, your attention is precious. Don't fill your life with other people's gossip. Otherwise, ordinary people will only become "consensus cannon fodder" when their information sources are monopolized by Twitter Kols and abstract speech communities.
What really deserves attention is always those who become KOL after doing their job to the extreme.
One friend (@Odyssey_Leexixi) said:
Now, people no longer believe in all kinds of blowing bubbles, and this is also reflected in the venue. The low-hanging fruit has been picked, and we turn to the pursuit of product-market fit to make products that truly meet user needs, have cash flow, and have business models.
I really like the transition from market share to market share, because it's something I've always wanted to do.
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