introduction

Recently, Telegram bots and Miniapp data have shown a clear downward trend.

Once upon a time, with the explosive growth of Clicker games, Telegram Miniapp once became the focus of the blockchain field.

However, behind the prosperity lies a crisis.

The TON Foundation relied heavily on Clicker games for its support strategy, which brought a short-term surge in users and data, but also planted the seeds of ecological imbalance.

As the novelty wore off, the homogenization and lack of depth of Clicker games became apparent, and the whole ecosystem began to suffer.

Now, as the tide receded, there was a need to reflect deeply on the strategic failures of the TON Foundation and to find a new narrative that could lead to the next phase of TON ecology.

We count BOT from Telegram Apps Center , TON App , The Open League (see appendix)

1. It's hard to stop the sharp decline in MAUs

Over the past month, OGenLab has continuously monitored 820 Telegram projects.

From October 1 to October 31, the cumulative number of monthly active users (MAUs) reached 879,922,503, despite the fact that the data could not be duplicated.

butBehind this huge figure lies a worrying sharp decline.

In one month, MAUs decreased by a total of 295,971,112 (unlost weight), which equates to a 33% decline.

This significant decline reveals a rapid decline in user activity, reflecting the unprecedented challenges the entire ecosystem is experiencing.

By analyzing the daily data,OGenLabFound that the decline showed an amplified trend.

Especially for large projects with more than 5 million users, the initial decline in MAUs is relatively slow and seems to maintain some stability.

However, as time went on, the decline of these projects began to accelerate, and even accelerated to lead the decline in the late period, having a more profound impact on the overall decline in MAUs.

This phenomenon shows that even the head project with a large user scale is difficult to resist the impact of user loss, showing that there are deep problems within the ecosystem that need to be solved.

2. Structural changes behind project ups and downs

inOGenLabOf the 820 items monitored, 249 items showed an increase and 491 items showed a decrease in October.

From the analysis of the bar chart, it is clear that the head and older projects - represented by Hamster, Dogs, Catizen, etc., which have already issued tokens - have fallen most significantly.

These once stellar projects are now facing a sharp decline in user activity and participation, reflecting the weakening of their growth momentum and the fading of user novelty.

At the same time, a number of emerging projects are providing positive growth, injecting new vitality into the market.

However, in terms of number and growth, the increase of these new projects is far from making up for the decline of old projects.

Among projects with less than 1 million users, the number of declining projects still outstrips the number of rising projects.

This shows that even in the field of small and medium-sized projects, the overall trend is still downward, and the market lacks enough new forces to reverse this situation.

This phenomenon highlights a structural problem in the TON ecosystem: The attractiveness of old projects is gradually weakening, the growth momentum of new projects is insufficient, and the entire ecology needs new stimulation and direction.

How to provide more innovative and valuable applications while maintaining user stickiness has become an urgent topic for foundations and developers.

3. Migration of project scale and degradation of user demand

To better understand how ecosystems change,OGenLab820 projects will be monitored by monthly active users(MAU) is divided into several grades: more than 50 million, 10 million to 50 million, 5 million to 10 million, 2 million to 5 million, 500,000 to 2 million, 100,000 to 500,000, 20,000 to 100,000, and less than 20,000.

Looking at the changes in these projects in October, there are some trends worth watching.

3.1. High-value projects flow to lower-grade ones

• >50 million MAU grade:

Number of projects: Reduced from 2 in Week 1 to 1 in Week 4.

Flow: From week 3 to week 4, one project of >50 million was downgraded to 10-50 million.

• 10 million to 50 million MAU grade:

Number of projects: Down from 18 in Week 1 to 15 in week 4.

Direction:

• From week 1 to week 2, one project was downgraded to 5 million to 10 million;

• From week 2 to week 3, two projects were downgraded to $5 million to $10 million;

• From week 3 to week 4, six more projects were downgraded to the $5 million to $10 million level.

• 5 million to 10 million MAU grade:

Number of projects: Increased from 22 in Week 1 to 31 in week 4.

Direction: On the one hand, the downgrade of high-grade projects into; On the other hand, some of its own projects have been further downgraded to 2 million to 5 million.

It is clear that the top projects are slipping down the ladder .

The number of projects with more than 50 million users decreased from two to one, showing that the user activity of these flagship projects is declining significantly.

This trend has led to a decrease in the number of high-grade projects and an increase in mid-range projects, reflecting a top-down contraction of the ecosystem.

3.2. The grade of middle projects has decreased significantly

• 200 10,000-5,000,000 MAU grade:

Number of projects: Increased from 35 in week 1 to 41 in week 4, but at a slower pace.

Direction:

From week 3 to week 4, 10 projects were downgraded from 5 million to 10 million to this grade;

At the same time, 10 projects were further downgraded from 2 million to 5 million grades to 500,000 to 2 million grades.

• 500,000-2 million MAU grade:

Number of projects: Increased from 78 in Week 1 to 99 in Week 4.

Flow: A large number of projects have been downgraded from higher grades, while some of their own projects have been downgraded to a lower 100,000-500,000 grades.

Mid-sized projects have not been immune to the decline in activity .

The increase in the number of projects is mainly due to the downgrading of high-end projects, rather than growth itself. This indicates that the pressure to maintain the user scale of medium projects is increasing, and the user loss phenomenon is obvious.

3.3. There has been a substantial increase in the number of small projects

100,000 - five 100,000 MAU grade:

• Number of projects: Increased from 142 in Week 1 to 181 in week 4.

• Flow: There are many projects downgraded from higher grades, especially from 500,000 to 2 million and 2 million to 5 million grades. In addition, some projects are further downgraded to 20,000-100,000 and < 20,000 grades.

20,000-100,000 MAU and < 20,000 MAU grade:

• Number of projects: The number of projects in these two grades has increased significantly. Among them, the number of projects of < 20,000 grade increased from 84 to 161.

• Where it goes: There are many projects that are downgraded from the higher grades, especially from the 100,000-500,000 grades. At the same time, it also has a decline in project activity, resulting in a surge in the number of lowest grade projects.

The increase in the number of small projects is not a sign of an ecological boom, but a result of an overall decline in projects.

Projects at all levels generally face the problem of declining user activity, the influx of new projects is not enough to compensate for the loss of users, and the ecosystem lacks fresh blood.

Above data Clearly reveals the overall downward trend in the size of TON ecosystem projects.

From top projects to small projects, nothing is immune to the impact of declining activity.

This trend reflects the current ecosystem's lack of user engagement and innovation drivers, and the urgent need for new strategies and narratives to spur growth and regain user trust.

4. Difficulties and highlights of OpenLeague project

In discussing the development of various projects in the TON ecosystem, we focused on the OpenLeague project. Although it has a certain popularity and user base in the market, it still cannot avoid the trend of user decline, and even the decline is more serious in some aspects.

In addition, the internal project is mixed, there is uneven quality.

however It is worth noting that there are still one or two bright projects that stand out, bringing hope to the entire ecology .

The user decline trend is more obvious

pass From the data analysis of the OpenLeague project, we found that.

• Overall user activity decline: OpenLeague's user decline has been greater than other projects, and the number of active users continues to decline. This may be related to the lack of continuous innovation and user engagement mechanisms in the project.

• Increased competitive pressure: OpenLeague is facing more competition in the same type of sports and game projects. The emergence of new projects has diverted users and caused its market share to shrink.

The quality of projects varies

• Mixed ecosystem: The quality of subprojects and activities within OpenLeague is varied, and some projects lack clear positioning and high-quality content, making it difficult to attract and retain users.

• User experience needs to be improved: some projects have deficiencies in design and function, and users have poor experience in the use process, which further accelerates the loss of users.

Highlights worthy of attention

Despite the challenges, there are some outstanding projects in OpenLeague, such as "AKEDO Game" and "RentTycoon" that show depth on some days Green and rising.

5. A whale falls and all things are born or come to nothing

To get a deeper understanding of the project's user dynamics, we looked at the week 30 days prior (September 24 - September 30) and the most recent week(October 25 - October 31) the project changes were studied.

On the one hand, it helps us look at trends over the course of a month;

On the other hand, since the official data provided is the monthly active users (MAUs), if the sum of the trend slope of the two periods is closer to 0, the more suspected the project has brush volume and lack of new users High.

Analytical method

For two 7-day periods, we defined the following metrics:

M1 (User change from September 24 to September 30) : During this period, M1 It is equal to the number of active users on the last day in the period (non-empty and greater than 10) minus the number of active users on the first day in the period (non-empty and greater than 10).

M2 ( User change from October 25 to October 31) : Similarly, M2 Equal to the number of active users on the last day of the period (non-empty and greater than 10) minus the number of active users on the first day of the period (non-empty and greater than 10).

In addition, we draw a two-dimensional coordinate system with M1 as the horizontal axis, M2 As the vertical axis, and add a auxiliary line x=-y , to aid analysis.

Coordinate quadrant interpretation

By plotting the project's data points in a coordinate system, we can Evaluate user trends for your project based on its quadrant and location.

• First quadrant ( M1>0 , M2>0 )

Meaning: The project showed user growth both in the week 30 days prior and in the most recent week.

Interpretation: These projects may have sustained growth momentum, and user activity is steadily increasing, which is worth paying attention to and following up.

• The second quadrant M1<0 , M2>0 )

Meaning: The number of users of the project decreased in the week 30 days before, but increased in the most recent week.

Interpretation: If the data point is located x=-y On the right side, it indicates that the project has begun to reverse the decline and is expected to become a potential project.

If located x=-y On the left, the growth rate is not enough to compensate for the previous decline, and the project may still be in a precarious state.

• The third quadrant M1<0 , M2<0 )

Meaning: The user of the project fell in both time periods.

Interpretation: The downward trend of these projects is obvious, user activity continues to decrease, and there is a high risk of termination.

• Fourth quadrant ( M1>0 , M2<0 )

Meaning: The item grew in the week 30 days prior, but fell in the most recent week.

Interpretation: If the data point is to the left of x=-y, it indicates that the decline of the project exceeds the previous growth, and the user may enter a downward spiral, which needs to be alarmed.

Brush the amount of suspect items

The data point is near the origin, located x=-y Nearby projects, M1 and M2 The sum is close to zero, indicating that the user change of the project lacks real growth, there may be a brush behavior, and the actual new users are less.

Potential project

Located in the second quadrant and in x=-y The projects on the right, despite previous declines, have seen significant recent user growth, showing a rebound trend that deserves further attention.

Risk item

Projects in the third quadrant, where users continue to decline, need to evaluate their vitality and improvement strategies.

Items to be wary of

Located in the fourth quadrant and in x=-y The project on the left, the recent decline is large, may fall into the dilemma of continuous loss of users.

Through the above content, we can simply summarize:

• User growth project (First and second quadrants) are worth focusing on as these projects demonstrate the potential for continued growth or rebound.

• Subscriber decline item (Third and fourth quadrants) need in-depth analysis of the reasons for the decline and timely adjustment of strategies to win back users.

• Suspected brush volume item It is necessary to strengthen data monitoring to ensure the authenticity of data and maintain the healthy development of ecology.

6. Summary

At the moment, Telegram Applet applications are facing unprecedented difficulties, mainly focused on two aspects: commercialization and content.

Commercialization aspect :

The current commercial model is mainly to sell volume and money, the core is Flow realization .

However, the challenge at this stage is that COin-sellers and exchanges have already bought a wave of traffic, and the new traffic is not attractive to them.

At the same time, a large number of tokens were generated in the game, but Lack of specific application scenarios and consumption mechanisms .

Once the tokens are acquired, the player's only option is to sell them, which causes the project to quickly decline after the coins are loaded.

Content aspect :

Currently the vast majority of heads Game by clicker (ClickerAs well as a series of fission missions, the game itself lacks playability.

In the long run, users onTelegramGames create stereotypes, attract players and sell them for money (EarntoSell) type.

To reverse this situation, we need to build truly playable games, rebuild and rebuild the trust of users. The next bright game star rises in the sky of Telegram, which will be a truly touching masterpiece.

We also sincerely look forward to seeing new content creativity and new commercialization models, so that these games can be revitalized and lead users to the real game world.

OGenLabIs a passionate game studio, standing on the crest of the wave of the emerging track, the pursuit of the future of nothing Limit the possibility.

This article analysis also starting on the twitter platform: https://x.com/OGenLab/status/1854060874304221435

Subsequent OGenLab will also continue to pay attention to Telegram's data pulsation, and in the near future, it will also conduct in-depth analysis of the project's TON chain data.

We've seen the fall of mega-projects and the rise of new powers, but it's not enough to light up the world.

We hope to see this as soon as possibleTelegramShould be Use the prosperity scene.

Reference materials:

1、Telegram Apps Center : https://tapps.center/

2、TON App: https://ton.app/

3、 The Open League: https://ton.org/open-league

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