Music collectibles, or more generally value capture around audio, hasn’t quite found footing in crypto. Recent insights hit the nail on the head: the initial visual NFT craze set expectations sky-high, with early adopters reaping outsized rewards, but this has led to a lopsided market where success stories on the music side of things are scarce and liquidity is tight. Here, Nick Tomaino notes artists should release thousands of NFTs at low prices to stoke widespread ownership and fan investment; activating early supporters who stand to gain as the artist rises. However, some are still skeptical that such a strategy will be the tipping point for mass adoption. The artists with enough attention to drive this change seem disinterested in the NFT space, while TikTok and streaming giants continue to dominate fan discovery. The crux of the matter is that music NFTs must offer more than just a speculative asset. We must also confront the elephant in the room: most fans aren't solely looking to turn a profit from their music passion. Outside of consumption of individual songs, they crave experiences that feel more tangible than digital tokens. And when it comes to scaling up, we face a slew of unanswered questions about who will provide the necessary liquidity. Sitting on these challenges, let's not forget that nearly all music today is streamed. This fact alone should guide our approach to integrating crypto into the music industry without disrupting the listener's ideal experience. Perhaps it's time to break down existing narratives around music NFTs altogether and prioritize solving real gaps between artists and consumers rather than getting lost in a self-congratulatory loop.

Turning attention to the experimental fringes, we encounter projects like Crate. This platform simplifies the tokenization of songs, enabling artists to make their music tradable on Base with a single click. It's a leap beyond the traditional confines of music NFTs, venturing into a realm where songs become fluid assets. Still, the question lingers: does this model resonate with music enthusiasts who aren't keen on treating songs as tradable commodities? The concept of gambling on the potential future value of a song seems at odds with the traditional enjoyment of music as an art form. While Crate offers a novel mechanic, it remains to be seen whether it aligns with the intrinsic motivations of music lovers. Meanwhile, Limitless is carving out a niche in social predictions for creators. It's an intriguing blend, akin to a social network meets betting pool, where followers can wager on future outcomes curated by influencers. The concept is less about financial speculation and more about community engagement through shared forecasts. Does music fit in well here? There's also Vault, a new venture by James Blake that offers fans exclusive access to unreleased tracks for a subscription fee. While not crypto-based, its roots with the Sound team suggest an integration of certain crypto frameworks. These explorations all hint at where the music industry could tie into crypto, outside of just NFTs.

Successful music NFTs will not dethrone streaming as the king of music consumption. The allure of owning music, much like the desire for vinyl records, appeals to only a niche market. Most listeners prioritize ease and convenience over ownership, choosing streaming for its simplicity. Innovation in the music industry should focus on enhancing these aspects rather than complicating them with new forms of ownership that few may embrace.

Successful music NFTs will carve out their niche by fostering a data-sharing network and a social graph for music. The current ecosystem is a jigsaw of isolated platforms, with artists and fans scattered across them. Web3's promise lies in bridging these gaps, enabling a seamless exchange of value and information. This infrastructure could underpin a gamified music experience, where engagement and investment in an artist's work are rewarded in novel ways. While memecoins and tipping tokens may seem like a knee-jerk response to the hype, they do serve a purpose. They draw crypto-savvy eyes to new music, even if they alienate the uninitiated. However, the real test is whether these tokens can evolve beyond gimmicks. They must anchor value at both the creator and network levels, not just as fleeting media sensations. Imagine a world where viral hits don't just inflate token supply but sustain a creator's career and fanbase. This shift requires a cultural leap, moving beyond the thrill of 'green candles' to a model where fans support artists directly, with or without the prospect of financial gain.

Outside of crypto, the persistent focus on audio's viral potential on platforms like TikTok is a recognition of the memetic power that audio commands. The recent alignment of tokens with internet memes suggests a ripe opportunity for music to follow suit. It's not far-fetched to envision a future where music, too, becomes a more tangible vehicle for cultural currency. The key lies in identifying the right form factor that resonates with both artists and fans. This isn't about replacing traditional music consumption; it's about enhancing the artist-fan connection in a way that feels authentic and rewarding.

TikTok's audio landscape has become a breeding ground for viral content. Creators pair their visuals with everything from iconic movie dialogue to obscure tracks. The right audio choice can catapult a post to fame, prompting comments like 'investing in this sound' as if the audio were a stock. Yet, TikTok's system lacks a clear lineage for audio sources. Users may struggle to trace a song back to its original artist, whether it's officially uploaded or informally ripped. This gap in audio provenance on TikTok highlights just one disconnect that open infrastructure could potentially bridge.

For a quick thought exercise, imagine a platform where betting on the next viral audio hit is an embedded ritual for a platform like TikTok. Each day, users could wager on which videos will explode in popularity. TikTok already sorts videos by audio, setting the stage for such a prediction market to thrive. This concept could revolutionize token use, moving beyond mere music collection to a gamified stake in virality. What we consider a 'song' is evolving, blurring lines between music and meme, artist and audience. It’d be interesting to see a crypto-adjacent platform reworking these discovery incentives.

Trying to draw a conclusion here, TikTok's audio-driven virality mirrors the crypto world's attention economy. AI expands what music can be, making audio a potent, shareable force. But, the act of collecting music as NFTs hasn't sparked the revolution many expected. It's becoming clear that the catalyst for web3 music will likely be a new dynamic in artist-fan interactions. This won't be about ownership in the traditional sense.