Writing a lot privately for solidifying my own thoughts and getting a plan together, was going to post some long multifaceted thesis for 2024. everyone has done this

Something about the many new narratives

• Data availability- Celestia/ EigenDA

• what about Celestia roll-ups - and airdrops on TIA

• Roll-app chains (DYM)

• Restaking, oh and now there’s restaking LSTs (LRTs?)

• other ecosystem airdrops- INJ/ SOL airdrop season

• hold on what about parallelised execution- (SEI/MONAD)

• oh, and what about the MOVE ecosystems - APTOS/SUI

• not to mention AI, oh yeah and inscriptions

It’s all just so much to keep up with that even veterans of the space are getting lost, instead of doing that I’m just going to outline the one thing I’m convicted about. (screw all this noise if I was new, I would just buy BTC and ETH)

People are underestimating the boring majors, BTC and ETH melt faces.

Sentiment

Everyone is excited about the ETF, but as a catalyst for the expected crypto cycle, something like BTC > ETH > Alts > further out the risk curve.

I heard a lot of folks being conservative with BTC/ETH estimates and very bullish on various alt ecosystems.

This might be PTSD from 2021 and the bad taste the ‘Supercycle’ narrative left, safe to say most were disappointed with BTC and ETH relative performance, and did not expect the returns to be as diminishing and now most expect even more so.

Now it feels like everyone is fading the majors and underexposed. Even within my own circle I know this is the case nobody even holds BTC (because higher beta elsewhere), even my ETH maxis have very heavy positions in SOL (and others) because “it’s going to outperform”

Expectations

I don’t think we get the diminishing returns like last cycle in the Majors, the ETF cannot be priced in, I doubt it’s a sell the news event it opens the gate for continuous inflows from an entirely different tap.

The only people pricing this in, is those of us already in crypto with Coinbase and Binance accounts, the actual buyers from this new pool cannot price it in as the product isn’t live yet.

We get close to 10T total market cap this cycle, I thought this last time, but I don't think this is out of the question with BlackRock in the picture the actual inflows required for this are there. Dot.com bubble was 10T and that was when money was worth a lot less and confined to US only.

This Bull cycle inflows can be divided into two categories Retail and Institutional

Retail: will ape into likes of SOL, or the next shinny thing, chase new narratives

Institutional: The only 2 assets with an upcoming ETF, BTC & ETH

Retail flows will also find there way into BTC/ETH.

I think about 2021 narratives, a lot easier and more understandable Alt L1s and NFTs, if 2024 narratives are Data availability, Restaking and Inscriptions, we have a problem because I had trouble explaining to my normal friend what an L2 is. For the Masses when crypto gets ‘de-risked’ it will be the simple Schelling point and not the hot new ‘Roll-App-DA-parallelised-AI chain’.

New Capital

This new pool of capital is something this space has never seen before. Crypto Bull markets have been primarily retail driven; we had only a taste of ‘institutional’ narrative last cycle.

even if your bearish and think ‘this won’t see much adoption like anything crypto’ be realistic it’s not going to be 0%

Basis points of $Trillions is $Billions

If 1/10 do a 1% allocation, and this is so conservative does not account for the positive feedback loop of mania-hype-froth. And the Miner Sell Pressure being cut in half around this time.

Not to Mention BTC available on exchanges at all time low since the 2020 Covid dump, with BTC coming off exchanges throughout the 2021 bull market and preceding bear market until today.

Implying accumulation to long term holders throughout the bear market

So, we are about to have an avenue for continuous inflows from a multi-trillion dollar pool of capital going into an asset with a diminishing limited supply and current sell pressure about to be cut in half (miner’s have to sell majority to cover expenses for profit)

All this during upcoming monetary easing, Rate cuts and into an Election year.

Ethereum

Ethereum ETF will lag behind BTCs.

Short term after BTC this absolutely gets front run as the ‘next thing’ and may have even more of an effect than the frontrunning on the BTC ETF (especially in light of BTC approval, as it will then be expected for ETH), so expecting a run way past ATH even if it doesn’t get approved this year.

Ethereum has been deflationary since the merge

Total ETH staked is still climbing, now at 24.33%

Active Validators since the Merge, this ‘big Celsius unstaking ETH’ scare is a tiny blip at the end in comparison.

Timing

Inflows will be slow and steady contrast to retail inflows, legitimately this changes the game, I don’t want to say no more bear market, but I am confident that this is the last 4-year (easy money) cycle.

Possible continuation into 2025, I would not be surprised if BTC and ETH continue to run, while broad ‘crypto’ ecosystem experiences a traditional retail driven bull run with epic crash.

And a separation of institutional Crypto (BTC + ETH) and (everything else) Retail Crypto.

Closing

Things will rise and fall by a lot, and it will look like its making millionaires all over the place.

Stuff will go crazy to multiple billions/10s of billions in alts and narrative rotations happen faster than even I can keep up with.

However the inflows needed to take this space to the 10s of trillions are going to only two assets the boring majors, I think BTC will start seriously contending with Gold into multiple Trillions, and ETH to contend with the likes of Amazon/Apple.

And this realisation happens over the course of a few years, not like the short-term narratives and main characters of this ‘cycle’ bull market.

by the end most will be thinking, I should have just bought BTC or ETH.