Market Commentary from Arthur Hayes

On 19th September 2024 ​Superscrypt, Ethereal Ventures, and ANAGRAM hosted the Crypto Research Day in Singapore. As part of our Research Day, we were joined by Arthur Hayes, one of the most prolific investors and personalities in Web3, who shared with us his takes on the market, ETFs and investing in the current climate:

• On market outlook:

  • Arthur points out that if the recent rally (Nov '23 to Apr '24) didn’t feel like a bull market, then people might have been in the wrong assets

  • With the macro environment still uncertain and TradFi pressure looming, he’s cautious on short-term price action but believes crypto’s long-term value will prevail

• On institutional adoption and ETFs:

  • The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs is seen as a significant development, with basis trades driving AUM growth

  • Ethereum ETFs, on the other hand, have been lagging in unlocking institutional liquidity due to a less developed futures market on CME and current basis spreads below 5%, which are unattractive for macro traders

  • However, Arthur notes that institutional capital takes considerable time to fully engage and is still overall bullish on ETFs unlocking institutional liquidity

• On investment philosophy:

  • Arthur shared how he prioritises investments in infrastructure supporting decentralisation over consumer-facing products marketed to retail (which may be tricky in different jurisdictions)

  • He views speculation, including meme coins and cultural trends, as the most primitive form of adoption driving on-chain activity

  • However, he cautions about the recent trend of projects launching at high FDV, which may limit upside potential for retail investors compared to established assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana (median “low float, high FDV” project launched is underperforming majors by 50%)

About Arthur Hayes:

Arthur Hayes is the CIO of Maelstrom, a family office that invests across the crypto ecosystem. He is also the co-founder of BitMEX – the first crypto unicorn. Prior to entering the crypto industry, he worked as a trader in the capital markets divisions of Deutsche Bank and Citibank. Arthur holds a Bachelors of Economics from the Wharton School of Business. He has appeared on major business news networks including Bloomberg and CNBC. He is active on X (@cryptohayes) and releases a monthly newsletter (Crypto Trader Digest) read by thousands of investors globally. Follow on Instagram | Medium | Substack | X

About Maelstrom:

Maelstrom is an investment fund focused on digital assets. It is managed by the family office of Arthur Hayes (co-founder, BitMEX). The fund’s mandate is to build a portfolio of infrastructure companies that will serve as the foundation of the next wave of trustless decentralization. Website: Maelstrom.Fund Follow on Linkedin | X | YouTube

A bit about the hosts…

• Superscrypt is an early-stage web3 fund based in Singapore & New York and founded by Temasek. We focus on infrastructure and emerging applications in web3 and provide comprehensive support to founders building the next wave of disruptive decentralized networks. Learn more here.

• Ethereal funds and supports the growth of early web3 companies and innovators. We invest directly in permissionless networks and partner with the global teams building them at the earliest stages of their journey. Learn more here.

• ​ANAGRAM is a modern institution for a novel technology. We leverage human and financial capital to help bring the ownership economy to the masses. Learn more here. Learn more here.