(1/8) Another bear market is inevitable. From a fundamental standpoint, it’s become clear we have yet to achieve the two catalysts necessary for self-sustaining growth: non-reflexive (ponzi) business models and user adoption that doesn’t rely primarily on speculative behavior.

(2/8) Akin to the last cycle, the only products that have successfully generated income are those are in the “shovel and picks” business e.g. Opensea, FTX, Binance, and some DeFi protocols.

(3/8) Even in the one optimistic space of gamefi, we have failed to generate a sustainable business model that can be replicated a la Uber (O2O, SaaS). P2E and similar models are so far only sustained by artificial demand.

(4/8) Potential is largely priced in and incentives are lacking for builders with existing projects. When the best scenario for a project is to capture value (a high valuation raise or exit liquidity) via a speculative hype pump, it creates the wrong incentives in the market.

(5/8) That is, narratives and appearance are prioritized beyond fundamentals. Cosmetic metrics that have been artificially incentivized by token emissions are paraded around (TVL, volume, users), when most of these simply cannot be sustained as the incentives dwindle.

(6/8) Just like the previous, scale has always been on the horizon yet remains painfully distant. It is true, that scaling solutions are much closer and some arguably already in place, yet it remains a simple fact that the accompanying business models are nowhere in sight.

(7/8) Speculative fatigue has set in. The next bear market won’t be as painful as the previous one, yet it will serve to bolster the fundamental needs of the space. The long term future of crypto is optimistic as ever.

(8/8) Bitcoin and its value proposition as a store of value an alternative may serve as an exception to the rule. Yet it remains unclear how closely entwined Bitcoin's meta-narrative and the overall crypto narrative are.