CRYPTO MARKET OUTLOOK 2ND SEMESTER 2024

The most important topic that concerns your finances and global economy is one country that fired it’s golden bullet, and missed! There will be DEVASTATING, IRREVERSIBLE consequences for the US that used the dollar as a weapon. The consequences of harder money borrowing, and the end of the US hegemony.

The News : Saudi Arabia has withdrawn from the contract they have been renewing since 1940s, and made it official since 1970s. They already accepted CYN for oil that goes to China for a while.

The Implications : this is the end of petrodollar. And a strong kick in the process of ending US hegemony. US dollar is currently on fast track to lose its status as a world’s currency, and world’s reserve currency.

The Edge : while the long term implications are catastrophic for US economy, there will not be much short term implications. The long-term implications are that less demand for US dollar will be forthcoming compared to the past. It will weaken the US position in that it will not be able to raise money as easily as in the past to finance its budget from foreign sources. And once the process begins, you cannot stop it. Biden’s decision to use the USD as a weapon definitely ended it.

The thing two is to expect even more erratic behavior as we head into US elections (November 5th). Currently US economy is showing signs of strength, but with sharp and sudden spikes like when a plane gets in a turbulence and loses 5-10 meters beneath it in a second. It signalizes something is on a sandy base, something is not as solid as for now it upholds.

It presents both an opportunity - as we know the players, much stronger and powerful than us (the entire US monetary system) will do all to its ability to get more green as we approach the elections. And a danger - as it is pushing it wildly beyond it’s natural levels.

You can expect crazier than usual : no pullback periods ; indicators in crazy zones ; and weird drops in between whenever either a foreign side or lack of natural, real-world substance to it things uncover.

In general, if team Biden (basically the entire US apparatus; intelligence; silent rulers behind Biden) is successful, the green and strong will be heading into the US elections. And we have no reason to think they won’t be successful. They already control most parts of the government.

LET’S SEE BITCOIN NOW

Bitcoin is lingering after stocks market now. Stocks markets made new high, but Bitcoin didn’t. Stock markets are near the highs that I expect, and as it starts to form red candles, I think Bitcoin will print stronger ones. Thus why I am bearish. As I told you good technical level to book any shorts is 63k… although there is strong possibility we go much further down.

After this correction, bitcoin will linger UPWARDS like alts pump after BTC gets a couple calm days after the up storm… or on correction and then the up move.

I do think we will have a proper nice alt run.

If this altcoin breakdown happens, and it’s on the hair-level of the only support it has, you’ll have wonderful opportunities to buy your top alts - cheaper.

Those opportunities I don’t expect to last for long, as there won’t be a consolidation, but rather a V-shaped up move. That will be your alt run.

This is the moment you all prepared for.

For scenario of BTC up and ALTs holding this level, you don’t sell spot ALTs you strongly believe in, you’ll hold them out. you sell your weak ones, stuff you aren’t overly happy with and stuff you can live without if bull market happens.

You sell to buy back more, but you don’t sell everything as the more confident picture than medium term down is the major bullish UP into the November elections,, and it’s what 4.5 short months away!

​​GOLD, can see medium term correction now, macro is megabullish, China buying, BRICS buying, and dedollarization. + technically and cyclically it is due for pump on a macro 1-2 yr timeframe. It is my most confident blue-chip

~ Cycles of war suggest peak in 2025 ~

WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN JUNE 2024

June has showed its teeth and will continue to put pressure on BTC. Worst case scenario for me right now is 61k but BTC will fight for every level and will try and avoid to reach that level.

Warning for the 28th of June, as I expect a significant red candle. The reason is that a large Bitcoin options expiry event will occur on the date, with $6.7 billion in notional value derivatives expiring. Also its a friday, end of the month and bad things happen on the last Friday of the month. Its book balancing time. There is a good side to this, and I will explain later on.

The narrative for this month is ETH ETF's. The SEC said that it that they will start trading in summer. That's a big vague time line. Bloomberg said that it's on the 2nd of July, but only bloomberg states this.

This week (17-23 June), it will become more clear. Note that if this date gets verified from other sources, during the final week of June, liquidity will flow from BTC to ETH, putting more pressure on BTC. ETH will do well and so will solid alts on the ETHereum network. Also note that this will be a sell the news event.

As I mentioned above, there is a good side to BTC dropping on the 28th and from loosing liquidity to ETH. In July there will be a natural correction upwards.

“Also my cycle charts are showing an increase in liquidity. It will start slowly during the first week of july and will gain momentum during the last ten days of the month. This will continue in August.”

Our biggest bullish event right now are the elections in November. Historically we will go up the 2-3 weeks prior the elections. If there is a change of Government, we go higher by 4%-7%. In this case, if Trump wins, we go up at least 8%-10%. Unfortunately, there is one event that can screw this up.

The Mt.Gox bitcoins will be released to their owners during this time (October/November). Let's hope that this is delayed until 2025. Nevertheless, any selling will be from their regulators and will be done in a controlled fashion.

NICHE MARKET

I have a brief overview of the narrative for you, so we don't lose focus and already have our attention on the narrative before the shift of the flows happens.

Looking at the prices and the current market situation, things couldn't be developing better for us.

NOW is the time when REAL opportunities will develop.

As we analyze the market, we see the attention and dominance of meme coins, which will remain a part of this cycle.

Communities have already established themselves here, having weathered their second waves and are likely to perform well in the next wave, capturing the attention of new market participants. You already know them and have been able to follow them in our analyses from the beginning.

BUT what is still flying under the radar are the AI projects. In recent weeks, liquidity flows have been notably weaker than before, shifting from one narrative to another at a faster pace, leading people to FOMO and either sell off their solid AI projects or completely overlook them. GOOD for US!

However, that is precisely the mistake most do; to ignore AI tokens because they focus on memes or some short-term narrative.

Don't be misled because AI will absorb a significant portion of liquidity, so you should not lose sight of it.

The best price developments happen in the later stages of the cycle, deciding who emerges as the winner.

We prepare together !

Another point currently underestimated is the Ton Ecosystem. It's amazing how well the user adoption works here.

The focus here is less on technically driven aspects but on GameFi. Adoption is happening rapidly, and it's not the crypto enthusiasts who are adopting here, but people from outside who are playing games because they've heard from friends that you can make money by just pressing buttons.

This is the first step in entering the transitional phase before more and more liquidity flows in, and adoption accelerates even more rapidly. Telegram has the user base, and now it's slowly transforming them into crypto users without them really knowing it, which is one of the points where almost none of the other Layer 1 blockchains can keep up.

We continue to analyze the opportunities and how best to leverage the next wave of adoption to our advantage.

I would first observe the developments (next 1-2 months), the ecosystem is currently evolving. The current focus is on GameFi here on Ton Network.

The focus should now be on Ai coins, which are extremely undervalued. But the capital outside of crypto will flow in here.

EXCHANGE TRADED FUND

If you are looking for the "safest" trade with still significant upside but limited downside risk, I would say ETH is the play to pay attention to right now on a 3-6 month basis. ETF doesn't remotely feel priced in yet, high chance the BTC ETF playbook will be re-written with ETH once again starting somewhere in Summer.

Wouldn't speak of a confirmed ETH/BTC bottom yet but the way how things are shaping up could very well be the shift in trend here and I do think ETH will outperform BTC in the remainder of this cycle by a factor of AT LEAST 1.5x-2x.

Unpopular opinion, similarly unpopular as buying SOL near the lows back then, SOL/ETH I see going down from here, in other words, expecting SOL to be weaker than ETH going forward, that's a topic for another day though. Not necessarily bearish on SOL, just see more fuel driving ETH than SOL for the rest of '24 if I had to pick one.

The thing with ETFs is you don't know for sure (at least I don't) how much of all inflows are really finding their way into the order books as I haven't seen any on chain proofs that verify all ETFs to be 100% collateralized, but I do see how ETH is going to be marketed by Blackrock and it may even be easier for them to sell the tech aspect to the normies. This cycle is driven by institutions helping to pump our bags and it isn't even a secret what their next coin is that will be shilled.

Wall Street came for your BTC and they are now coming for your ETH imo.

With an ETH ETF around the corner, I expect 2 things

• Attention/Liquidity to go from SOL back to ETH mainnet and furthermore, into good altcoins towards Q3, especially Q4 this year

• RWA projects to run.

I think the beta play to ETH are RWA projects, tokenizations on blockchain. Think this niche is misplaced in the top categories and will gravitate more towards one of the top niches of this cycle to look back to in hindsight, maybe more than any other niche as we speak. If I had to research one corner of crypto (besides AI), it would probably be this one.

This is very good edge if true. Especially ETH had a decent period of consolidation. And is healthy to move upwards.

….. continued to part 2

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