CRYPTO MARKET OUTLOOK 2nd SEMESTER 2024 (part 2)

MAGICAL ASTROLOGY

I use astrology and naked charts to trade which is easy to follow whether you’re a brand new or a more experienced trader. While world events and economic data releases, they seem coincidentally timed around moon phases + astrological events (mercury retrogrades + eclipse seasons). I’ll create my bias, only to later learn these events line up. I will share a few astrological events that help me predict market moves.

Moon Phases

Moon Phases tend to bring volatility and potential trend reversals. Each phase (first, new, third, full) happens a week apart from the other.

The new and full moons are like “checkpoints”. Price tends to move in the same direction from one point to the other. With the first and third moon phases acting as “mini checkpoints”.

This has the same impact as the eclipse season moon phases but with less significance.

I look at them as lower timeframe checkpoints, while eclipse seasons are our macro checkpoints.

Pictured above, the New Moon on June 6th saw the market print a high of ~72K. Since then, we have been trending down/bearish. I expect this trend to last until around the Full Moon (June 21st, but up until the 24th). We could potentially see a significant drop before then.

Mercury Retrograde

Another key astrological event that has a HUGE impact on the market is mercury retrogrades. The planet Mercury rules communication in all forms. It also rules travel, cars, shipping, and mail. Delays and miscommunications are more than normal during this time.

Start off strong with a plan or plan to fail. Don’t guess. Stay the course or be prepared to accept the fallout. You might find it helpful to minimize your trading during this time– especially if you find yourself an emotional trader, struggle with risk management, or are scatterbrained. The retrograde doesn’t have to be bad, painful, or hard… you just need to get ahead of it.

Some blame mercury retrogrades for all the chaos. But this is a good time to slow down and review where you’re putting your energy. Reanalyze who you are and what you are doing—but hold off from making any drastic changes until after retrograde has ended.

Next Mercury Retrograde :
August 5 - August 28
(Shadow Period - July 17 - August 5 and August 28 - September 11)

I expect lots of volatility in the market during this time- erratic movements in both directions. Trading becomes less predictable during these times and more times than not this is when we see traders get rekt’d or deviate from their trading plan.

We could see a significant drop in the market during the pre and post-shadow period (2-weeks before and after the retrograde where energy can linger and affect life + the market) that I expect will be corrected by the Solar Eclipse on October 2nd.

Upcoming Mercury Retrogrades :
November 26 - December 15
(Shadow Period November 7 - 26 and December 15 - January 3)
March 15 - April 7
(Shadow Period March 1- March 15 and April 7 - April 26)

Eclipse Season

Eclipse seasons are key astrological events that have significant impacts on the markets. These usually signal the beginning/end of a macro phase.

Pictured above is the effect during the Oct 14 -28th eclipse season in which we saw the market break out from a long period of consolidation. This bullish momentum continued until the April 2024 eclipse season.

Pretty remarkable to see how precise the market moved with this astrological event! During the last eclipse season (March 25 - April 8, 2024, pictured above), we saw the market peak from the bullish move it made since the October 2023 eclipse season. It peaked and gave us a 20% correction.

This was the point the market shifted from bullish to bearish. We have since been consolidating/accumulating within this range which should continue until our next eclipse season (September 17-October 2) in which the market should make its next leg up- breaking ATH’s!

Upcoming eclipse seasons (these dates could potentially be bull run peak):

FUNDAMENTAL

If you're Serious about Crypto - You have no business ignoring Monetary Policy, DXY, Rate-cuts, Unemployment levels in coming months. And their Relevance with Bitcoin Dominance Alt-season during upcoming Months.

Advance your Edge and Up-Your game. Learn more of it. Don't try to be "Lucky" all the time. Make your preparation meet opportunity and then that is good way of getting Lucky.

"Alt-season Begins when Last person to convert their Altcoin back to Bitcoin is done. I talk about actual alt-season, not interim ones.”

With expected Hawkish FOMC meeting, That reduces chance of rate cuts this year as per consensus - (Bold Prediction is that they are wrong and holding rate beyonds September is Policy Mistake, so we'll have couple of cuts this year and if I'm to be super bold here expect 1 by July)

So rate-cuts mean Altseason?

Nobody even cares about a 25 bps cut. Or two. Or three. This is your edge. When people start screaming Alt Season upon first cut.

There needs to be continual cuts to even start that.

In-Fact, before you see rate-cuts your Alts would be standing lower on their Bitcoin pairs than their price today. As many will continue bleeding to Bitcoin next 1-3 months. And then can we talk about potential shift. SPX during this time continues to outperform BTC. And Gold outperforms them all, Bitcoin not yet ready to act as digital Gold at least.

Unemployment in many sectors is rising, and it is expected to rise further next 3 months. When it is screaming, that is the Buying opportunity later this year. When people panic.

The first few rate cuts not being bullish is also because they are "rescue-cuts" to finally help cracks in economy long ignored. And as that happens, Market that was previously pricing-out rate cuts, finally prices it in relatively quickly when they realize these are 'rescue-cuts'. Thats's when they panic and we enter at cheaper prices. After bearish reaction to rate cuts finally get priced in short term.

Only when some commitment to cuts is finally seen then you see, the Bullish Shift. The actual QE is only that. Until then is Bottoming.

Short Term :
As short term DXY strengthens before midterm weakness, with mildly sticky inflation :

Deleveraging in Crypto is in progress as long as Bitcoin is holding 65,900 So that shorts do not continue to print. Specially deleveraging is visible on Alts. Up-moves that are not transforming into breakouts. Your Free edge! You can play longs temporarily to play this deleveraging, But nett. "Short-tern" Move for a month is shorts as FED holds rates in June.

And soon as 65900 breaks. The turn gets ugly. Confirmation of Deleveraging's end is loss of $64k final support. This is short term. And I'll not yet give targets for the short term down-move before the next up-move so you do not leverage. For your safety. Because entering shorts here is not right as deleveraging happens first.

What that means for Alt/BTC :
FED must cut once by September, it is a policy mistake if they don't then I'd sell all by November, this cancels all bullishness.

Until then, alts continue breaking further (not BTC much, but Alts). Tone was Hawkish during FOMC too.

This means, as long as rate 'cuts' (one or two cuts are not QE, because rate cuts have lagging effect) so - as long as rate cuts don't happen in fashion, then Alt/BTC power is no more same, it is exhausting - that's why Bitcoin is not yet seeing new highs despite spot ETF and what not, because their is not enough excess liquidity. For this risk asset (BTC) to go to overvalued territory in a sustained manner without seeing QE or Cuts.

Therefore, BTC.Dominance keeps leading up until now. And if this continues, i.e. BTC keeps going up, and Alt/BTC pairs keep sinking then how high really can BTC.Dom go?

At some point it tops out, and that will finally be where Bitcoin will get more dependent on rate cuts than ever. If they don't arrive, then BTC loses its bull market support band.

This is why I believe next Legup is FINAL legup of cycle. And that legup does happen. As I am Confidently macro bullish for a new high in either case. But first, Confidently short term bearish as long as 69.498 remains resistance. And no weekly close happens above.

That means I am still a 'Macro' Bitcoin buyer and have not Sold Bitcoin HODL bags except from selling 30% Bitcoin Bags with everyone between $69k - $74k in great profits as that was bought in 2022-2023 - Sold 30% as expected slow down after March 2024.

But despite being Macro Buyer, Bitcoin is no more in my Macro-buying territory from R:R perspective is why short term remain bearish. I do hold few (less) Altcoins I am in profits with and ones that I believe in just for the low confidence case where up-move happens from Market prices for that you watch $63,600 Biggest Short term support.

BUT here is thing, going forward I cannot see myself buying any more bitcoin here at 69k High Risk levels. No More. It cannot convince me. It is no more undervalued. I'd wait for it to first revisit undervalued territory and then wait for my Bullish Targets in the Macro over-valued territory finally.

So, Alts, I am happy with only what I have. I do not want to increase my exposure further in short term. Until low risk levels come. We even sold 50% buys in minor gains to be able to DCA cheap and positioned better for the altseason when it finally arrives later this year.

Here is Secret Tip : 23 weeks from June = Bulls in control Back again.**
(Around end October - November is s shift)

That is when BTC.Dominance finally starts showing weakeness in favor of alts this Macro Bull-run cycle! And we get our Final Leg-up of this cycle, the bigger one.

That is my timeframe to see shift in Monetary Policy finally in favor of Bulls!

Time wise we are closer to bottom on Alt/BTC as well. "Time-wise"

Price-wise That means ALT/BTC is 'still' in process of bottoming out and is in Need of Rate-Cuts or QE to fuel it. With external Money. Because remember : Bitcoin is measure of excess liquidity in the System. The Global Altcoins. It needs QE for further fuel and it'll be given that but only later this year onwards.

Alternatively if you're a Bull, you do not want to see $64k or $63,600 coming anymore. If it does come, you better watch for it to be held.

One Alpha Final Tip :
I expect short term ETH ecosystem to outperform. But ETH to underperform BTC during this QT environment

BUT BUT

This cycle, midterm, longterm I expect Bitcoin L2's to outperform ETH ecosystem AND +++ ETH to outperform BITCOIN remaining cycle (not now, after 2-4 months from now when my above mentioned Macro Boxes get checked, that means you have opportunity to buy it lower too). And more, I expect Infra & Modularity Solutions to do well for scalability.

AI should do better VS RWA but I like this sector it is currently ignored and undervalued. And when near bottoming on the Total3-USDT/BTC go for Midcaps. Avoid small caps and High Caps (as focus is stable and safe r:r not just highest r:r greed) and once This cycle is ending, Sell all 😉 Enjoy Beaches. Don't Hold Alts a more than two-four months after Bitcoin's Macro Top will be in. Because after each cycle Alts get flushed out. So sell it all during altseason! Even stables.

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