Researcher: @Wuhuoqiu
Translator: BitMetis (BitMetis (@BitMetis) / Twitter)
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How to seek the way out of Gamefi? To Traditional or to the Crypto Native? Let’s dip into this gamefi thread from the perspective of @ Lao Bai (@Wuhuoqiu) / Twitter , Amber Group blockchain analysts.
First of all, X 2 Earn has basically reached a dead end. This Ponzi model is very advantageous when it starts. And then it starts to fall into trouble when it exponentially grows to a bottleneck period, and the curve of the earliest liquidity mining attracting users to mine through high APY is similar, just because it is wearing a layer of Gamfi, the timeline can be stretched a lot, but its essence is still Defi.
Some players say that it is a good thing to introduce external income. Some Defi projects have income and can break this Ponzi model - Curve
Gamfi can't earn like Defi projects, but it can introduce ads from outer space similar to Social-fi. For example, Some people suggest that StepN should cooperate with Starbucks to get a running route. If you pass Starbucks along the way, you have to be there to clock in or something else And the ad fee can be used as External Revenue to break the Ponzi scheme.
There is nothing wrong with this idea, but it still does not work for the fundamental problem. The reason is that not everyone in Defi is going to mine to earn. But only those LPs who provide liquidity and bear the risk of impermanent losses and hacking are earning. As to Gamfi X-to-Earn, it seems that everyone is earning. Such a good "perpetual motion machine" does not exist in this world.
Let’s cite an extreme example - Assume that Stepn becomes powerful to the size of Facebook-3 billion users. Then you will find a scary thing - even if the GST for everyone on average is only one dollar, the selling pressure of $100 million is 1 trillion US dollars a year. And then half of the consumption of level-up running shoes and gems is still $500 billion…
How about the ad revenue of Facebook last year? The answer is $80 billion.
That is, after Stepn reaches this level, the profitability of advertising has to reach 6-7 times that of Facebook to maintain a revenue of $1/day per user, which is obviously unrealistic. Would you experience another app and run for $0.1 a day, even if you are running and opening the App by the way. Actually, it makes no sense.
So where is the way out?
Currently, there are 2 view and trend in the following
1.Traditional-Free to play, Play for fun and Skill to earn
Easily, it is more traditional to get access for everyone to participate for free, and then earning transfers to "only part of players can earn"
The way of screening is the skill, character level, time and energy input, understanding of the game, etc.,. To put it bluntly, only the awesome players can earn!
How about the left? Of course Play for fun
Here is the question.There are tens of thousands of games released on Steam every year. If it is only for Fun, It is wiser for users to play on Steam, isn't it? Why do players come to web3 to play gamefi? At least for fun in gamefi, it is inferior to Web2's games.
Without high-level playable experience, there will be no large amount of players to play for fun. Without enough players, there will be no whales, no so-called Skill to Earn…This is a flywheel. Excellent games like World of Warcraft, Fantasy Westward Journey have achieved Skill 2 Earn without Web 3 bonus.
So this path is a direction. But nobody knows when Gamfi's production and playability can be as aligned as traditional games. For now, there is still a long way to go.
2. Crypto Native
you will find that the native things are always more alive in the long term. For example, when the Internet just came into existence, everyone stopped reading newspapers but surfing for news. It is not native, but "Internet reform". The really rock ones are Google, Youtube, Tiktok, Wechat...
When the NFT appeared, what we thought was to make famous paintings into NFTs, and then burn them. But later, we found that it should be the other way around. The native Punk apes became popular, and offline entities began to connect.
According to this mindset, No.1 above is more like the chain and currency change of traditional games, which does not give full play to the true native characteristics of the blockchain.
So what should Gamfi look like according to the native characteristics of the blockchain? Fomo 3D is a great example which is relatively simple but seems like spinach*.*
The Wolf Game and the Dark Forest also have native-oriented elements. Because the core logic of the entire game is on-chain and completed by smart contracts rather than off-chain servers. It will have certain advantages in open architecture, autonomous existence and composability in the future.
However, there are still inevitable problems and the most direct one is the high threshold. If Axie Infinity is Dota, Stepn is the Honor of Kings, then the Wolf game and the Dark Forest is the series of Civilization. This kind of games are popular in the gamefi industry but narrow for the public
So you ask me where is the way out. I really have no answer. I have seen something like "Big Time '' exploring in the NO.1 direction (including Axie Infinity, which is also trying Free 2 play recently). There is also Isaac who is trying in NO.2 directions. Whether the problems I mentioned above can be overcome, I believe the market will tell us the answer in the future.
I hold the belief that Gamfi is a megatrend because there's no better way to open the market to everyone than gaming. But at the moment I'm really confused. I only know what Gamfi 2.0 should not be like, but I don't know what it should be or what it can be in the end...
*Note: The above content is just for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
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