Arthur: @0xScrooge_eth
Copresent By @BitMetis
“God gives gifts to everyone, some can write, some can dance. He gave me the skill to play football and I am making the most of it.” Ronaldinho
The Fed's aggressive interest rate hike has been driving the price of cryptocurrency up and down since this year. Even as the World Cup approaches, the price of fan tokens still won’t stop falling.
In the short term, the economic recession will affect consumption directly, but lengthening the period of the cycle will often highlight the value of some investment targets during the economic recession.
This article will analyze whether the current fan tokens are worthy of attention from the following points:
-
Football League's resilience to recession
-
Why can football leagues resist economic cycles?
-
What is a fan token
-
Valuation of football club parent company
-
Fan token analysis
-
Risks and Opportunities
If you have any different opinions, please DM us on Twitter.
Football League's resilience to recession
The picture below shows the revenue history of the five major football leagues in Europe
The five major leagues in Europe were established in the last century. Since its establishment, they have experienced many economic cycles, and this article will not repeat the long-standing crisis history. Let’s mainly look at the impact of two crises in this century.
Although the financial crisis in 2008 and the Covid-19 epidemic in 2020 caused a large number of enterprises to go bankrupt, the five major leagues remained stable with their strong economic resilience.
The Covid-19 epidemic is the first crisis that directly affects league revenue. Different from the financial crisis in 2008, firstly, the league could not be carried out normally due to the epidemic, and the gymnasium lost the daily competition income of fans; Secondly, due to the economic recession, the salary of fans dropped, which led to lower expenditure on broadcasting and club derivatives.
However, the epidemic will eventually end. With the relaxation of epidemic prevention policies in various countries, the income of the five major leagues in the 21/22 season has equaled that before the epidemic.
Why can football leagues resist cycles
1. Cultural Factor
Fans can gain a sense of belonging to the city/country/community when watching the game, and then they will be prouder and more self-satisfied when the team wins.
This is the same as when we play games. When we are immersed in the flow state, it is often difficult to extricate ourselves.
Some fans like the club because the football stars’ charisma and following the team will pull the distance between them and their idols.
2. Social Factor
Most fans pay attention to football clubs through the introduction of friends and relatives. It is difficult for people to cut off this long-lasting and complicated network of relationships.
3. When the club is unsuccessful, the fans stay loyal
Studies have shown that the common bad experiences within the group, such as relegation or defeat, will make the relationship between clubs and fans closer.
Although pleasant events like winning games can bring clubs closer to fans, what unites everyone is disturbing events. By reflecting on these challenging experiences, the relationship between the club and its fans will be consolidated.
We have learned about the club's recession resistance at the macro level, let's briefly introduce the fan token next.
What is a fan token
Fan tokens are limited digital assets based on blockchain technology, which uses blockchain for authentication, ownership, transactions, and voting records. Although you can't use fan tokens to buy goods directly, you can exchange them for other digital assets on the exchange.
Holding a fan token gives you the right to vote on proposals initiated by the official team to help clubs make decisions related to fans. Token holders also benefit from a stunning array of perks, exclusive promotions, rewards, VIP experiences, and interactions with like-minded fan communities.
At this point, I believe everyone already has a certain understanding of fan tokens. Next, get ready, and we will thoroughly explain fan tokens.
Valuation of football club parent company
Considering many factors, we analyze the value of the parent company of fan tokens from market value, player value, social media, and other data.
-
At present, most of the fan tokens on the exchange are football clubs, and there is only one F1 club and one E-Sport club.
-
Only the clubs in Premier League, Serie A, Ligue 1, and La Liga choose to sell fan tokens on the exchange, while the Bundesliga clubs are absent.
-
The value of players only accounts for 3%-5% of the market value of clubs.
-
Clubs generally have more followers on Instagram and FaceBook, two Meta-based social media, than on Twitter and YouTube.
Fan token analysis
At present, there are two kinds of fan tokens: club fan tokens and national team fan tokens, which mainly run on three public chains: Chillz, BSC, and Bitcichain.
This article only analyzes the value of fan tokens, public blockchains, and sports derivatives will be considered in future articles.
Let's start with the social media data.
Social Media
The number of positions of tokens in each club only accounts for a small part of their social media-weighted fans, and the adoption rate of fan tokens is low.
There are two reasons. First, most software operations are too tedious at present. For example, some fans will get stuck on Metamask, which makes them unable to buy and hold fan tokens. Second, it is difficult for some fans to understand the blockchain, and the increasing number of blockchain scams leads to a further decline in their confidence.
These two problems will be solved with the positive development of the industry, and the number of currency users in that era is expected to increase exponentially.
Football Club fan token valuation
At present, the market value of fan tokens in most clubs only accounts for a small part of the market value of clubs after being completely diluted. However, $SANTOS is a special case, which will reach more than 4 times the market value of the club after being completely diluted.
Due to the early sale of $OG, tokens are nearly completely diluted, and the remaining tokens are only released by 20%-40% at present.
The gradual release of contemporary coins in the future may harm prices.
Valuation of national team fan tokens
There are two problems with national team fan tokens:
-
Unlike club fan tokens, the lack of the catalyst makes the World Cup the only hot spot that can be expected to impact its asset prices.
-
Most national team fan tokens are issued in Bitcichain, which is not a popular chain.
With this in mind, we have long been cautious about these national team fan tokens.
Governance and Rights
At present, the main governance functions of fan tokens are as follows:
Polls
Holding club fan tokens can get special voting rights: media avatars, entrance songs, captain armband information, locker room design, etc., and even express opinions on the team's starting lineup.
For example, Juventus fans chose a new goal celebration song in the December 2019 vote.
The exclusive right to purchase
Holders of club fan tokens can enjoy exclusive purchase rights, such as competition tickets, limited edition NFT, physical collectibles, etc.
Thematic activities
Club fan token holders can participate in some thematic activities of the club, such as meeting with stars and going to the stadium with the team to participate in the competition deeply.
Risks and Opportunities
Risks
At present, there are still a large number of fan tokens that have not been released, which will have a certain impact on the price after being released in the future. In addition to dilution, the current market environment also affects token prices. If macro factors continue to deteriorate in the short term, tokens will fall further.
Opportunities
If this World Cup is properly publicized, it is expected to drive cryptocurrency into the public domain.
From an optimistic point of view, the encryption field will not stagnate. With technological innovation and large-scale promotion, the adoption rate of fan tokens will rise, which is expected to rise together with the price.
Conclusion
This is a good start. With the application of blockchain technology, fan tokens will be given more governance rights. Still, I have some advice for the football club:
-
Do not cooperate with short-term third-party platforms for a one-time payment, which may lose fans' long-term participation value and have a negative impact on their IP.
-
Find the underlying agreement with long-term value to cooperate, so that it is easier to customize fans' participation activities when mastering their tokens and NFT, and the income will gradually improve as time goes by.
In the short term, the Web3 world is still very young at present, and with more young people entering, the future of the fan economy will be brighter.
Reference：
https://www.statista.com/statistics/261225/top-european-soccer-leagues-big-five-revenue/*
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14660970.2022.2059858*
https://www.transfermarkt.com/spieler-statistik/wertvollstemannschaften/marktwertetop*
About BitMetis
The world’s leading decentralized Game-Fi distDistributionwork.
Real-time Data|Trending Events|Guides|Click-to-Earn Bounties
Where to find us？
Twitter：https://twitter.com/BitMetis
Discord：https://discord.com/invite/pp6CBntccT
All Links：https://linktr.ee/bitmetis