The19th-century Russian painter Aivazovsky was awarded the highest medalof the Russian Empire for his outstanding contributions to artisticcreation. In his long creative career, the ocean has always been thebiggest theme, and his most successful work is the titled "TheNinth Wave". With thrilling light and shadow effects, the workrenders the desperate struggle between man and the sea, and isintended to inspire people to increase their confidence and strengthto survive in dangerous situations.
Inthe painting, the sun shoots golden rays through the clouds,heralding the passing of the most dangerous moment.
Openseais good, but it doesn't belong to me or you; X2Y2 is new, and itbelongs 100% to you and me.
Openseaoriginated from the bear market and benefited from capital. Its hardwork brought the first wave of great prosperity of NFT, and is thefirst protagonist of the NFT era.
Withthe support of capital, Opensea could survive the rough days. Now ithas a market share of more than 90%. Its daily income of tens ofmillions of dollars is enjoyed by the project party and the capital,which is quite reasonable as they are the ones who invested in thefirst place.
However,as the infrastructure of the WEB3 era, NFT is born with the gene of"I own my own data". In the WEB2 era, you are getting quiteused to the situation that you contribute and others enjoy theprofit; however in the WEB3 era, it is only right and proper that youcontribute and you gain the profit.
X2Y2assigns 100% of the income to the token holders, and the teamdirectly locks up the only 10% of the shares. It will only beunlocked after 180 days, and the unlocking time will be as long as720 days. If the project is unsuccessful, the party gets no money;if the project goes to the moon, every participant gets to share themoney!
As aresult, a team with their tied belts, with a purpose of "by thepeople, for the people" has set sail into the stormy seas.
WhenX2Y2 was released in UNISWAP, it was 1ETH=10000X2Y2, which is aboutUS$0.3 based on the price of 1ETH of US$3,000. It rose to US$4.3within a few days after the launch, and the market expectation wasextremely high.
However,with the triple release of X2Y2 token staking, NFT staking and tokenairdrop, the currency price began to suffer from selling pressure,and even fell to $0.24 all the way, falling on debut.
Whether it's the official Discord group or Twitter, many people arecomplaining. Although there were also many suggestions from manypeople, very few people even noticed that as a nascent project, thedevelopment was faster than expected.
What people are most concerned about is: Why did it drop so much?Will it fall like this again in the future?
Most people want to know: What’s the next step? Can a positivecycle be formed?
Today, I would like to present a relatively objective analysis fromthe aspects of on-chain data, market performance, team performance,etc. The article is rather long, because it incorporates a lot ofdata and there are many “little secrets”. If you only want theconclusion, you can scroll and read the bolded part.
Disclaimer: no matter how hard I try to be objective, all opinionsare personal thoughts, and mistakes are inevitable. Please only readas a learning reference, not as an investment basis.
1 Where does theselling pressure come from? How big is it?
Thecontinuous decline for several days has left people with lingeringfears. Some people may think that even copycat projects wouldn’tfall like this. It is necessary to firstly figure out where theselling pressure came from. Look at the following figure:
All tokens with a total amount of 1 billion will be divided into 4segments and issued linearly. In the first month, about 200 millionwill be released within 30 days. Considering the low transactionvolume of the platform in the first month, the value that the tokenscan capture is the smallest. But on the other hand, when the outputis the largest, it is the roughest time.
So, for the rest of the calculations, I calculate the sellingpressure under the circumstance of the first month, which would bethe worst-case scenario of all time.
In the issued tokens, we calculate the circulation in turn withreference to the above figure:
There are a total of 1000 people, 15000 X2Y2 per person, the price ofMINT is 1.5ETH, and the cost is 0.3U at $4500.
There is no selling pressure in this part, because it is locked forone year and unlocked linearly. The peak amount of unlocking in onemonth is not enough for transaction fees.
This part of ILO players has two advantages: one is to obtaina genesis NFT whitelist (if the exchange can be established, and asfar as I know there will be a lot of NFT empowerment, so the pricewill be more imaginative); second is they will get to share 100% ofthe transaction fees from the beginning, ignoring the lock.
1.2 Airdrop sellingpressure
According to the tokenomics, a total of 120 million tokens will beairdropped to users who have traded on Opensea. The number ofairdrops is mainly determined by the transaction volume. Those withmore than 30ETH can get 1,000 X2Y2 tokens, with a total of 41,592,000tokens; users with less than 30ETH will get 78,408,000 tokens. Aprecondition is required for claiming tokens, that is to list someNFTs onto the platform to help provide liquidity.
As of March 1, the status of receipt is:
The whales received 13.78 million, accounting for 33.14% of theavailable ratio; small investors received 9 million, accounting for11.6% of the available ratio; the total received 27.79 million,accounting for 23.16% of the available ratio. At this stage, users ofthis part of the currency can directly sell the tokens afterreceiving them, forming the selling pressure.
Judgingfrom Figure 1, small investors receive less, and large investorsrelatively more. However, considering that the current currency priceis 0.44U, even the whales can only receive 1,000 tokens. Excludingthe claiming and transaction fees, it is less than 400U.
Whatis the significance of this part of the airdrop? Mainly it’s toattract OS users to come to the platform to "take a look".You know that there is a sum of money that belongs to you, then comehave a look and experience the special functions such as "batchpurchase" and "batch shelfing", and find out thatthings here are cheaper, faster and smoother. Voila.
Atthe same time, airdrops are worth little now, but as long as theplatform is easy to use and there are more and more users, theplatform token will become more and more valuable. Of course, this isthe story after.
Rightnow, this part of the airdrop is currently under a certain amount ofselling pressure. When the platform was just launched, the tokenprice went directly from 2 to 1.2; when it was opened again (with NFTstaking, etc.), the token price even went all the way down.
Lookingat the transaction records on the chain, you can continue to see manysell orders of hundreds of tokens. Although not all of them, theremust be a large part of them being airdrops, and even the tokens soldare not enough to pay the transaction fees in some addresses. Thatreflects that the confidence of the market has not yet beenestablished.
As anew platform, X2Y2 has just started building its trading volume andthe project has not been widely spread yet. The establishment ofmarket confidence mainly depends on the continuous and efficientdevelopment of the team, the launch of new functions, the increase intransaction volume and other aspects, which are all happening. Thefirst BAYC was sold on the platform, and Azuki became the top sellerhere.
Onthe whole, the selling pressure of airdrops will present a strangegame: if the token price falls to 0.4 or below, almost most smallinvestors will not receive enough even for the cost of claiming. Theywill not claim instead, and no one will lose money; if the projectdevelops well and enter a positive cycle, the token price and ecologywill rise spirally, and those who receive the tokens may be morewilling to hold on. The only thing to worry about is the initial gapperiod: the token price is neither high nor low, the ecology isneither good nor bad – here I think the team’s ability of techdevelopment and the community consensus will be big variables, whichI will elaborate later.
1.3 NFT stakingselling pressure
Accordingto the rules, a total of 45% of the tokens will be issued to userswho stake and place orders, and the reward will be a constant624,902.8 per day for a total of 2 years. Since Feb 16, a total ofabout 9.37 million rewards have been distributed, which is less thanthe number of airdrops.
Atthe same time, by observing the data on the chain, it can bediscovered that the receiving addresses ranked at the top also havemore pending orders and transactions, which have generally metexpectations. However, there is still a lot of room for optimization.
Observingthe current pending orders, the number of X2Y2 reaches 490,000:
AndOS has only 1.6 million, the gap between the two platforms is verysmall.
In amarket with free buying and selling, transactions are encouraged andlow prices are encouraged considering the X2Y2 pending order rewardalgorithm. Logically, as long as there are pending orders atreasonable prices, there will be corresponding transactions.
Thatis to say, if the pending orders are all in a normal state, the ordervolume and the transaction volume should be proportional, but theactual result is quite different from the expected. According to thedata in DappRadar, the 24-hour transaction volume of X2Y2 is 172 ETH,while Opensea reaches 20,000 ETH in the same period; the order volumeof X2Y2 is 632 and Opensea is 69711.
Thereason behind the huge difference is that X2Y2 is taken away byinvalid pending orders. The selling pressure is not low consideringthe distribution of 620,000 tokens per day is not of small scale. Atpresent, the trading volume of UNISWAP on the previous day is onlyabout 10 million, which is 410,000 per hour. If there is a group ofpeople selling non-stop, even a small amount of selling can make themarket appear pessimistic.
Asfor the proportion of econnoisseurs? The quantity is hard tocalculate precisely, but it can be speculated:
Fromthe point of view of a normal seller, if you really want to sell, thenext thing you do is to list the object both on OS and X2Y2. On theother hand, for the buyer, if you really want to buy, you compareprices between the platforms. If X2Y2 has the lower price and lowertransaction fee (0.5% lower than OS), there is no reason not to buyin X2Y2.
Therefore,behind the huge difference in trading volume, there must be too manyinvalid pending orders hunting for profits. The pending order volumeis 1/3, and the transaction volume is 1/100, in which the proportionof econnoisseurs can be speculated.
Agood mechanism is the key. Yesterday, the currency price soared from0.24 to 0.54, achieving a great rebound. Thanks to the new officialannouncement. There are two announcements in the figure below, andthe latter one is the trump card:
In this announcement, items that are 110% above the floor price areexcluded.
Firstof all, let’s talk about the downside. This will lead to thetemporary lack of rewards for NFTs with high rarity in the short term(but as mentioned earlier, it can also increase the chance ofselling). But this issue will be resolved within a week or two as theteam's native built-in rarity tool will be launched soon, and thenthe staking algorithm will also be linked to, and it will become thenorm for good things to get high rewards at high prices.
Interms of benefits, almost only items with real possibility of sellingcan get rewards. On that exact day, the total rewards issued droppedsharply from 620,000 to 50,000 - in fact, compared to thehundred-time difference between the previously listed transactionamount and the pending orders, the reduction of this reward tends tobe reasonable, and the remaining tokens are temporarily planned to bepostponed to later release - the original 2-year release may bestretched.
Amongthe other two items: one is to encourage selling, and the reward forselling is designed to be no more than the actual cost so as toprevent fraudulent orders. At the same time, after selling, if youwant to "mine" again, just sweep another floor, and thetransaction fee has been subsidized to you. The other item is tolower the reward for those that have been listed for a long time. Noone would care about the reduction as either the stuff is bad or theprice is too high.
Therefore,in terms of staking NFT, it is currently moving into a gooddirection. Rewards will become less and for better quality, whichwill continue to play a positive role in promoting pending orders.
Forthis part of the airdrop reward, it is nothing more than continuousoptimization of the algorithm, balancing the point between the rewardissued and the effect of the user listing high-quality NFT, which Ibelieve the team will do better and better.
1.4 X2Y2 stakingselling pressure
Accordingto the rules, users can stake tokens to earn more tokens. Thefollowing figure shows the current annualized rate of return:
According to the tokenomics, staking X2Y2 rewards are distributed asfollows:
In the first 30 days, 1.23 million are distributed every day. Inaddition to the users who support the project staking andautomatically compound interest, there are also some miners whocontinue to mine, sell and withdraw every day, and generate a fixedselling pressure every day, which would be a bad situation.
Will this happen? After all, this income is relatively high from theperspective of DeFI miners. I know that although exchanges cannotcall short positions yet, but there exists hedging OTC. It would bequite scary if the cycle of hedging to protect the principal, andthen mine, sell and withdraw begins.
However, after consulting DeFI experts and professional miners (themost powerful and professional developers), the answer is as follows(corrected after the passage was finalized,
the developer here might only read the white paper, not the latestempirical model, and actually the parameters of X2Y2 stake mining arepublic):
BTW,there have been people in the community who have been asking todisclose various algorithms and formulas. However, if you look atwhat is said below, you probably wouldn’t think like this(scientists can dig up almost any mine):
Backto the topic, that is, on the matter of X2Y2 stake mining, under thecurrent situation, there will be no big miners, no scientists, and noprofessional teams, so there will be no huge amount of mining andselling.
Everyonespends actual money to buy coins. If you want to mine, sell, andwithdraw, instead of long-term holding on and staking, it is likelyto become "shooting yourself in the foot".
Accordingto the tokenomics: In 14 days, the release of this block will bedirectly halved, from 1.23 million per day to 590,000. Two monthslater, it will be cut in half again to 260,000.
Therefore,the selling pressure of this part is actually not as big as imagined.
Inaddition, the team may launch a vote soon to revise the sellingpressure in this part, but it will be done on the basis of listeningto the opinions of the community. You can follow the Twitter.
Inaddition, the coins of the team and the treasury are still locked,and they will be gradually unlocked after half a year and a year, sothere is no selling pressure at present! Also, it should be notedthat the team's share is locked, and the unlocking starts graduallyafter 180 days, but from the first day it can linearly enter the poolto share the transaction fee with the proportion not very high. Thefollowing figure shows the sharing situation on Feb 28: the team gets2.2 ETH, the pre-sale users 2.9, and the staking users 9.7.
1.5 Sorting out allthe sell-off situations
Airdrop selling pressure:
There are still 76% of about 90 million coins to be claimed, but dueto the existence of a game that “when the price falls below 0.4,most small investors wouldn’t make enough transaction fees; whenthe price performs well, most of the holders wouldn’t sell”,there is only a very short dangerous period.
NFT staking selling pressure:
As for the main source of early selling pressure, junk NFTs took away90% - and they are not real users of the platform who only care aboutmaking profits. To deal with this, the new rules of the platformstrike precisely and are very effective. This part of sellingpressure can be ignored from now on.
X2Y2 staking selling pressure:
After consulting professional miners, there is no professionaldigging, selling and withdrawing, especially considering that it willbe halved after more than 10 days, and then halved after 60 days.
Inany case, all the selling pressure is no longer a concern.
2 What aboutecological development?
Theeconomic model of any project is just a foundation, and it must bescientific and reasonable to maximize the development. But no matterhow good the economic model is, without a good ecology, the projectwill only be a castle in the air.
Thissection analyzes the development background, work progress and futureof X2Y2.
NFThas attracted much attention since 2017, and broke out in 2020. By2021, the future ecology has begun to emerge. Messari divides thedevelopment of NFT into seven stacks: Layer 1, Layer 2 and sidechain, vertical/application, auxiliary application, NFTfinancialization, aggregators, frontends and interfaces.
Infact, in a simpler way, NFT currently includes the underlying publicchain (ETH, FLOW, SOL, etc.); trading market, metaverse, fan economy,social networking; financial applications (NFT mortgage, equitylending, etc.).
Noone knows exactly what kind of new paradigm NFT can develop in thefuture, but it is almost certain that NFT will become the underlyingfacility for all the content of games, social networking, art, andmetaverse in the WEB3 era, and it is different from digital currency.It is intuitive, easier to spread, and easier to break circles.
Theroad that digital currency has traveled, it will take a lot less timeand go farther on NFTs - I can be sure that the total marketcapitalization of NFTs will surpass numbers in a shorter time thaneveryone expects. The total market value of the currency, and eventhe next bull market, will be completely brought about by NFTs, theMetaverse and related games, because the fundamentals of the bullmarket are funds and fresh blood.
Atpresent, the total market value of digital currencies is $1.9trillion, while the total market value of NFTs is $16.9 billion, adifference of 100 times. If you think that digital currency has roomfor 10 times growth, then NFT will have a thousand times growthspace.
Justlike digital currency trading, exchanges are the most profitable;exchanges will also be the biggest beneficiaries of the outbreak ofNFT. As a pioneer, OPENSEA has made a huge contribution to thedevelopment of the NFT market. However, there is no reason and it isabsolutely impossible for OS and VCs to distribute 90% of transactionfees to users
X2Y2is the first exchange that truly distributes 100% of the transactionfees to token owners. Everyone is both a user of X2Y2 and the ownerof X2Y2, and fully shares the dividends of the platform development.The platform develops 100 times better, and income for everyone is100 times higher.
2.2 Work progress
Whetherit is a DeFI or an NFT project, the essence to success is not abouthow much money you have raised, how capable is your tech team and howmany KOL and whales has endorsed for you. Instead, it’s about workefficiency, vision and community consensus.
As aperson who has joined the Discord community from the ILO releasestage, reached the top three in the community involvement, andvolunteered to be a community MOD, I have a very deep and specificfeeling about the team's efforts, which can account for the reasonwhy I spent dozens of ETH on the tokens when the price was 0.24.
Let’stalk about some details of the project:
Feature updates are extremely fast and community-focused.
Batch listing, batch purchase and rarity query are features ofmust-need. Batch purchase has made GEM, and rarity query has madecountless third-party tools. Now in X2Y2, there’s new feature inevery week or two, and the more interesting thing is that thesefeatures are mostly suggestions from the community.
In particular, the rarity query function, a mysterious functioncurrently under development, may form a bombing effect after itslaunch. Although I don't know what kind of chain reaction there willbe, I personally look forward to it.
Always be decisive.
When the community is extremely fearful, the team is able to find thereasons through the perspective of data analysis, and then makeannouncements to stabilize the hearts as well as the declines.
Iwill never have the idea of "I am smarter than the projectparty". Professional people do professional things, and areliable team can bring happiness to investors.
Infact, although the team temporarily needs to be anonymous because ofthe commercial agreement, many people within the industry haverealized their identity. The team has had very abundant NFT exchangedevelopment experience before, and their last product which startedfrom 0 has defeated projects invested by SoftBank.
Ialso know 2 things else:
First,the average sleep time of the team was three hours before and afterthe launch of the project.
Second,when the price fell in the first two days and the community was in astrong mood of FUD, the team held a meeting at 2 am to find asolution together, and the final solution was smarter than Iexpected.
Theproject party showed thework board on Twitter today. The progress of the work is notunpleasant, and it is all very effective work. However, it seems thatmany core work has not been updated in time due to the need forconfidentiality.
3 Future development
AreNFTs just a bunch of JPGs in the future? Will NFT only be on ETH? Ofcourse not. New gameplay and new ecology will continue to emerge, andwhoever can iterate quickly will win.
Toachieve rapid iteration, the team must be capable enough and thecohesion of the community must be strong, which is the foundation. Inthis round of decline of the token price, we can see that even thoughit has fallen so rapidly, many people with wisdom and resources arestill paying attention to and supporting the project. This willeventually be the harvest brought by "doing the right thing".
WhenI foresee the future, I tend to be more optimistic, that is, to thinkfor the better. For example, what if X2Y2 continues to captureOpensea’s share and even becomes the new head?
Atthe beginning stage of X2Y2, many wonderful ideas have emerged in thecommunity, and the team is implementing them one by one. Therefore,when the price fell, my passion did not diminish at all.
Inthe future, the NFT market will inevitably increase by a hundredfold,and of course the NFT platforms will also rise. If the platform’stransaction fee reaches 100,000 ETH a day, users who hold 100,000coins will be able to share a large amount of platform dividends, andthat would happen every day.
Agood team, a good track, a good vision, a good community, and a goodproduct. I can't figure out why I should participate in some otherprojects with less certainty.
Inaddition, X2Y2 has not yet started deflation, but I am sure that X2Y2will deflate, no matter when it will be, what form of deflationwill it take. After the system is activated, it will be jointlydecided by the token holders.
Hugosaid: The sky is wider than the ocean, and the human mind is widerthan the sky. In the WEB3 era, whoever does not keep the sameinterests with users will eventually lose users; whoever can bringmore and longer-term benefits to users can gain the most support.
Theroad ahead is full of obstacles. Let’s face the ninth wavetogether. The only way is to move forward!