Embracing the madness
0xBb03
February 18th, 2022

This article is from Knower substack, who share a lot of alphas and insights. If you like the post, please give him a visit and spread the word.

Introduction

I know you’re exhausted.

If you’re like me, you probably spend a lot of your day thinking about Crypto, learning new shit and scrolling through Twitter. It feels like there’s a new OHM fork or potential 100x Layer 1 that pops up on the market everyday, and it can be tough keeping up with this.

But that’s the understatement of the year, and it’s almost impossible to be firing on all cylinders in every area of the market. If you haven’t noticed, we’re sitting around a $2.7 trillion market cap, and that’s fucking crazy - maybe it isn’t crazy enough for you, but we’ll get there. Unless you’re someone who’s well-off enough to have an analyst or quant doing the dirty work for you, many plays are going to pass you by.

It can be tough stomaching the fact that you could have bought $SOL at $3 like Sam, or put your 401K into $AXS and retired your entire bloodline for generations to come. Or maybe you’re just upset that your 4 figures haven’t turned into 7, and you want to learn how to stop thinking rationally and start making money.

My two cents.

Hopefully you get the feeling that time is running out. Spoiler: it is.

Crypto has been in a very hectic cycle this past few months, and it’s my opinion that it’s only going to get nuttier. FTX bought a fucking arena, what do you think that means?

As I said, we’re at an almost three trillion dollar market cap, and Bitcoin has made new all-time highs. That’s cool, but have you been able to take advantage of any of this? You probably are still trying to reach that arbitrary goal in your mind - that new Porsche, paying off a mortgage or retiring your parents. Whatever it is, we’ve all got one.

The reality is, most of us will never hit this. Most of the accounts on Twitter you interact with daily won’t sell the top (and neither will you) and may very well end up with a demolished portfolio after the next bull run. See how I said next?

So what can you do?

After scrolling through Twitter the past few months, I’ve realized that crypto is a market that rewards avid learners, and one that punishes those who don’t do their homework. It’s very easy to get caught in the hype and get a lucky play, but can you replicate success? There’s a reason they call Crypto the world’s greatest casino, and it isn’t because it’s a fun place to be.

You, the average retail trader, is up against Alameda, quants, whales and degens. All of these people have more money than you and know how to turn their stack into an even bigger one. David might have beat Goliath, but it’s unlikely you can beat someone named Sam Tabasco.

But don’t worry, there are still opportunities. And if you use less of your brain, you can find them. I’ll go into more detail, but a few of the giga brain plays on my list include: NFTs (lol maybe), DeFi 2.0, L1 boom (and imminent bust) and the bold strategy of becoming a rooootator.

But first, lemme tell you about something that can save you your dignity.

Psyops, psyops everywhere.

Nobody wants to see you make money.

“But Su said-”

Rule number one: don’t listen to a word Su Zhu or Kyle Davies says, they’re here to eat your lunch and will accomplish this 10 times out of 10. Actually, don’t listen to a word anyone on Twitter says. Unless you know them, in which case strike up a conversation with @DegenSpartan and listen to him share all his alpha with you.

Jokes aside, psyops are everywhere. You literally can’t scroll without coming across one - that is, if you’re capable of spotting them. It took me a while to realize, but it’s way too easy for a big account to stir up conversation around absolutely anything.

I also realized that most accounts have alts, and they can often communicate with each other as if they’re separate entities. The rabbit hole goes deep, but all you need to know is this: watch your back.

You’ll perform better than the majority of market participants if you do your own research (DYOR sucka). After all, the goal of a bull run is to get in early - maybe you spotted a market inefficiency or you just liked the art - and dump on people who will FOMO in at the top. Or is that the definition of some other kind of scheme?

Time to strategize.

Learn to code! Check the chain! Read a project’s docs!

The key is to do something. There is so much information out there it’s almost criminal, and this is because you will never be able to consume it all. Once you figure out one subset of the market, three more emerging trends will come up and demand your attention. By the time you realize what Arbitrum and Optimism do, you'll have already missed their airdrops.

You can start by writing in a trade journal everyday. This doesn’t have to be strictly for your positions, a journal can include your daily thoughts on the market, something new you learned or even a cool quote. Most market participants won’t do this. Journaling in general is really helpful, but I guess I’ll write about that another day.

L1s, let’s start with those. Ethereum isn’t going to lose its market share anytime soon, but for now, you can dream that it will! Solana, Avalanche, Cosmos, Harmony, Fantom, Polkadot and many, many more, pick your poison. Preferably a low cap gem, but there are still gains to be made longing promising L1s with relatively large market caps. The best part about a bull run is that the numbers will keep going up, and people will start to realize certain chains might be undervalued.

If you look hard enough, you’ll find a no-brainer 10-20x. Maybe you’ll have to throw money at 5 or 10 projects, but one good play can help you make it. This is a viable strategy, right?

Unless you have a big bankroll, BTC or ETH won’t take you from 5 figs to 7, so you have to work harder to find that 100x miracle maker.

NFTs were a solid play, but most of us probably missed out on buying those for cheap this summer. You can still buy Art Blocks Factory and hope for a future 50x if NFTs catch more market share, but I hate locking up capital in NFTs. It sucks.

For every good NFT project, there are 100 bad ones. Most of them will go to zero, but you (hopefully) already know that. It’s out of my area of expertise, but maybe you could try flipping NFTs or minting something that might become valuable. Anyways, next subject.

The optimal strategy for a smaller portfolio is to hit a home run, rotate, hit another one, 10x your stack, roll into BTC and ETH. Easy, right? If you’re into Crypto, you need to know how to trade. It doesn’t matter if you’re “in it for the tech.” There’s a thing called opportunity cost, and it’s 100 times more deadly in a red hot bull market.

Don’t let yourself hold a bag for too long, and don’t feel bad cutting a position early. Even if it’s in the money, it can still hurt missing out on future profits down the line. But these may never come, and when you have a small portfolio, it’s important not to get too attached. Not a day goes by where I don’t change my opinion on something, or try and find an alternate view. Always have a bear case to accompany a bull thesis.

Trends are important, and to be honest, they’re pretty easy to spot. Just take a look at @danielesesta’s tweets, tell me you don’t spot a trend. Pay attention to who you follow, and don’t let your feed become an echo chamber. I’ll say it again! Don’t let your feed become an echo chamber.

Always try and find something new that’s going on (it’s pretty damn easy) and dig into it. If it’s shit, move on. If it’s tough to understand but people seem to be into it, dig deeper. It’s that simple. You won’t find the next 100x sitting on Twitter reading about Ethereum 2.0 or liking an Elon tweet, so go be productive and interact with builders.

Try and form a small group with likeminded people, and learn from each others’ wins and losses. This is how you get ahead, by being proactive and getting out of your bubble.

It’s rough out there, so try and do your best. Not all of us are perfect, and it’s important to always have an open mind.

Parting words.

Before you go making any rash decisions, put down that 5th can of Red Bull and lay off the Adderall tonight. I get it, Twitter is a fun place to talk with “friends” and discuss life changing alpha, but you need to get some sleep.

Seriously, look out for yourself. It’s easy to get caught up in the swing of things, and you won’t be successful if you’re running on artificial energy and constantly comparing your portfolio to others’. Cheers, and may we all get 10000x richer.

Or maybe not all of us.

This article is from Knower substack, who share a lot of alphas and insights. If you like the post, please give him a visit and spread the word.

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