I’m not a conspiracy theorist.

But something about the current Bitcoin ETF narrative has my spidey senses tingling.

I get it. The whole thing is exciting. Suddenly “large institutions” have a way to play the crypto game. You might even say the “herd” is coming and they’re right on the horizon.

But nothing is ever “just” good.

And that’s kind of the scary part. Everyone is hyping up ETFs like there the best thing since the invention of blockchains. It’s all sunshine and unicorns. But, that can’t be true.

Actions have consequences - even if we don’t always think about them.

The Other Side of the Token

For the sake of argument let’s make a bear case for cryptocurrency ETFs.

And ask ourselves, what’s really at stake here?

Control.

But before we begin, let’s put on our conspiracy theorists hats.

We won’t keep them on long though. Promise.

Have you watched Mr.Robot? If not you should!

It’s a show about a genius computer hacker. And in this fictional story is a company called E-Corp a.k.a. Evil Corporation. Think of it like the IRL Blackrock. They dominant the financial markets. They’re the “big boys'“ in the game.

And In this made up world world exists a “decentralized” cryptocurrency call eCoin. But in reality this cryptocurrency is not very decentralized. It’s a ruse. A fallacy.

A misrepresentation.

Who controls the network? The validators? The liquid staking derivatives?

You guessed it! Evil Corporation.

It’s anything but decentralized. The network is captured.

How?

The big boys have big boy toys. Deep pockets. Far reaching tentacles. And they’re sophisticated. And if we’re being honest the “little” guy has no way of competing.

Left unchecked the obvious winner is always going to be the E-Corps of the world.

It’s a simple as that.

Reality is Crazier than Fiction

Which begs the question…

• Why are we so happy about this fictional story becoming reality?

• Why are willingly handing over the decentralized networks to the baddies?

• Why are we not practicing adversarial thinking?

• Why are we inviting a wolf, so plainly dressed as a sheep, into our homes?

• Why are we selling out to the banksters, without even a fight?

Why isn’t the cryptocurrency cypherpunk community rallying, or at the very least, making a ruckus about the unfolding situation?

I can’t be the only one who thinks it’s a little strange that the only news about the upcoming Bitcoin ETF is all positive. Why no dissenting voices?

Ask yourself, isn’t a little odd that the new cryptocurrency regulations are coming into effect at exactly the same time Bitcoin ETFs are being approved by the SEC?

Even if it’s just a coincidence it’s worth examining.

So examine we shall.

The Silent Takeover

We live in interesting times. The world can admittedly be a dangerous place.

And for better or worse we do live in a surveillance state.

Global governments, and corporations, want to know what you’re doing. At all times. Often times under the pretext of security. And fine, that’s a reasonable argument.

But where is the line drawn? Do the people get a say? Are their ulterior motives?

Bitcoin, while a public ledger, is still pseudo-annonymous. You don’t really know what account is owned by which person or organization. And since we’ve established we live in surveillance state, that’s going to be a problem for the maintainers of this status quo.

Bitcoin can’t happen. The cypherpunks can’t win the day. It’s not allowed.

But what if that’s not the real reason? What if “surveillance” is a means to an ends?

Not for security, even though may be a benefit at certain times… for certain people.

But what if it’s about power and control?

And let’s be real, that’s not a wild thought or idea. History, time and time again, has shown us that “governments” and “corporations” have ulterior motives and will take extreme measures to reach their goals.

What… WW2 ended and that was last time humans wanted to dominate the world?

I don’t think so.

These sophisticated players simply evolved. Adapted to the modern world. You don’t need to control populations at gunpoint anymore. That’s what the IMF (International Monetary Fund) is for.

O.K… hold on! We’ve gone full conspiracy theorist now. Perhaps even a little extreme?

Maybe. Maybe not. But at the end of the day we’re just asking questions and trying to see the world as it is, not the world as we want it to be.

The banking system is a black hole for power. It’s inevitable.

Money makes the world go round. It’s not Democracy. Sorry.

And what does power attract? People who want to harness it and hopefully even use it for good. But power can also be used for bad i.e. domination and control.

I don’t know about you, but when I think of the “banker” archetype, the words good and trustworthy don’t always come to mind first. And why would they?

Money is a power game. Being good and trustworthy isn’t always a winning strategy.

It begs the question are the people sitting atop these modern power structures actually serving the commonwealth? Yes, probably some. But probably many who are not.

And those are the ones I am worried about.

The players who’s motives, tactics and justifications are opaque. Why? Because being blind to half the chessboard is a losing strategy.

The Game - A Doomsday Scenario

Hopefully by now I’ve made the case for why it’s important to examine both sides of the Bitcoin ETF token. And perhaps even inspired you to ask a few questions yourself.

And while I think my case, made via allegory and a reminder to always question arguments from authority was fairly strong, it will probably be even better to paint a picture of a potential doomsday scenario.

Bitcoin will be captured.

Being King isn’t always great 🎯 it’s a target on your back. And who wants that seat?

The financial institutions.

In the coming years their will be a coordinated attack to control, subvert or destroy the Bitcoin network. With a much higher chance for control or subversion. Destruction is an outdated strategy - one for unsophisticated players. It disrupts the game too much.

Besides the financial institutions already have battle tested weapons - surveillance.

And it’s already happening.

By now you’re probably aware of the US regulations requiring users to report the name, social security number and address of a sender when they receive $10k or more in cryptocurrency transactions.

It’s analogous to the current rules requiring people to report $10k+ cash transactions.

These new rules benefit the institutions. They already have the resources required to abide be these new rules. Ultimately incentivizing all cryptocurrency transactions to flow through centralized exchanges or financial instruments like exchanged traded funds.

And that’s exactly what will happen.

The Bitcoin cypherpunk dream will die with launch of Bitcoin ETFs.

It won’t be instant. It will take time. But that’s o.k, because it will happen. And the big boys play are fine with playing games on a much longer time horizon.

2024 will be the year for creating the cryptocurrency surveillance machine.

In 2025 law breakers will be punished and “precedent” setting legal cases established.

And 2026 is when we see a dramatic influx to non-custodial cryptocurrency solutions.

Do I hope this prediction is wrong? Yes, of course.

But it’s foolish not to assume it’s not in the world of possibilities.

Why pay the cost of destruction, when control is just as effective?

The bankster way.

Conclusion

There is two sides two every token. A yin and a yang. Good and bad.

It’s important examine both sides of the token.

The Bitcoin ETF is exciting.

And perhaps even not as “gloom and doom” as I’ve painted it out to be, but it also has the potential to a be trojan horse - a problem that’s hard to see coming.

And if we honestly examine the situation, it’s filled with odd storylines and even more peculiar coincidences. Everything from the collapse of FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried’s relationship with the US government, too the recently enacted rules and regulations surrounding cryptocurrency transactions.

You can’t help but ask what’s really happening behind the scenes?