It is very difficult to pinpoint the timing of selling investment coins. Generally, coins fall for a long time and rise for a short time, and a good selling time is very short.
The solutions I can think of are:
I think method 2 should be focused on.
Method 1 is difficult, and the most difficult part is that investors who want to benefit from capturing the timing of selling are participating in a zero-sum game.
There is such a case.
I bought a coin and my holdings can reach the top 100. Long-term losses, more than 3 years. I am in the group of large holdings, so I know that the large holdings are basically gone. I was finally desperate. A week after the stop loss, the coin rose 10 times. I replayed this loss, and I found that after I stopped the loss, the coin was basically controlled by a mysterious force for more than 90%, and it was too easy to pull the market.
In the cryptocurrency, if the main profit of investing in a coin depends on timing, it is a fast-running game, a pure zero-sum game, I run first or you first, everyone is an enemy of each other. Even more frightening is that the project side is the investor's biggest rival.
With this kind of zero-sum game thinking, I found that there may be a set of methodology for cutting leeks in the crypto (it is estimated that the stock market is similar).
Cycle 1) and 2), come on, if you dare to buy it, you will die. Let's hurt each other and be enemies together.
It doesn't feel good to be each other's enemies.
After many failed investment lessons that required timing to sell, I made up my mind and decided to devote my main energy to cultivating method 2, looking for assets that do not need to be sold.
Give up the ideal of getting rich in a short time.
To find a real business model.
Look for the kind of assets that a lot of people are willing to hold for a long time (like 10 years).
Look for assets that have cash inflows, and the best thing is that you can really consider the principal as a sunk cost.