Fundamentals of Transition Thinking

Couple months ago I asked the OM by 6529 server if anyone is involved in DAOs. One said they were previously active, but stepped back, pointing me down a rabbit hole in 'parallel research' (non blockchain / tech) around 'transition thinking', a concept that’s gaining traction in Dutch universities.

Transition thinking is a framework for understanding and guiding large-scale changes in society, organizations, or industries, drawing on insights from sociology, environmental science, economics, and political science.

People who are building are also waiting for opportunities to push tech/ideas/culture higher in the transition stack. When combined with on-chain abilities, 'transition thinking' can offer insights on how to leverage windows of opportunities to upscale.

The primary goal of transition thinking is to facilitate shifts from one state or regime to another in response to complex and often intertwined challenges, such as sustainability, technology adoption, or societal transformation. In our case a more open, immersive, and decentralized internet that preserves individual liberty / self expression.

Multi-Level Perspective (MLP):

• This framework conceptualizes transitions as interactions between three levels: niches (micro-level), regimes (meso-level), and landscapes (macro-level)

• Transitions occur when pressures from the landscape destabilize existing regimes, and innovations from niches gain momentum and influence the regime.

1. Macro: Landscape (Values and norms):

   • These influence and constrain regimes but change more slowly

   • Represents the macro level trends and pressures such as tech advancements, economic globalization, and changing social values

2. Meso: Regimes (The way of doing things):

   • The dominant systems or structures within a society or organization, encompassing technologies, policies, norms, and behaviors.

   • Examples include the energy regime (based on fossil fuels), agricultural regime (industrial farming practices), traditional centralized finance systems, etc

3. Micro Niches (Innovation):

   • Niches provide environments for experimenting with radical new technologies, practices, or business models that might eventually challenge or transform existing regimes

MLP reminded me of an iceberg meme that I made years ago about the projects and people building the metaverse. Perhaps MLP is a fancy metaphor for funnels / layers.

Although M3 largely operates at the micro level / bottom of the iceberg, I feel good about our place in the grand scheme of things. The Internet shrinks distance, we can communicate with regimes on the Meso + Macro levels on social media, and in various working groups / forums / Github threads where our feedback and case studies are heard. Plus being where a lot of the innovation happens is like living in the future.

Case study: Openvoxels

Openvoxels is a M3 subdao that works on digital preservation and interop tools for voxel art. We are starting with Cryptovoxels, which was the first live 3D world with NFT integration for digital plots of land and UGC avatar wearables.

Although Voxels is a niche platform in terms of users, it still gets mention in broad examinations of the metaverse market for platforms that are experimenting with new business models like giving users more ownership over their in-world items.

The incentive structures for platforms catering to audiences interested in digital ownership and decentralization, combined with access to public data via blockchain, make projects like Cryptovoxels a powerful testing ground for indie technologists. Here you can permissionlessly experiment in connecting virtual worlds, get direct feedback from users / stakeholders through on-chain voting, and allow public observation and verification by higher-level society influencers.

Just like Voxels, the vast majority of games use exclusive formats, private code, and centralized file management. I used to view this as a curse because I paid a lot for my parcels I want stronger guarantees about ownership and longevity for my content, but now I view it as a blessing as a technologist that can make a point of how to go from point A → B in a way that a lot of projects can relate to.

Openvoxels aims to serve as a showcase for the potential benefits and challenges of granting users more ownership over our in-world items, a radical concept in the gaming industry. So far we’ve been influential in wider adoption of glTF and VRM, popular open file formats for content and avatars to move between immersive virtual world platforms.

Although still a work-in-progress, we’ve been successful in pushing some ideas from the micro level to the meso level like wider adoption of VRM. Part of that process is also being able to identify points of friction in terms of workflows and tooling that sometimes might be the key to unlocking that window of opportunity.

Intermediate Concepts

1. Path Dependencies and Lock-in:

   • Once a regime is established, it tends to reinforce its own stability through path dependencies (reliance on existing infrastructures, regulations, skills).

   • Lock-in occurs when changing the regime becomes difficult due to these established dependencies.

2. Windows of Opportunity:

   • Transitions are often triggered when external pressures create windows of opportunity, allowing niche innovations to gain traction.

   • Examples include economic crises, policy changes, or technological breakthroughs.

3. Socio-Technical Systems:

   • Transitions are not purely technological but involve changes in social practices, regulatory frameworks, market structures, and cultural norms.

   • The socio-technical approach emphasizes the co-evolution of these elements during transitions.

To give another example of path dependencies, here's a look at the vast and intricate systems of the secondary market for U.S. treasuries. This is generally viewed a "safe haven" asset and are central to the global financial system.

The window of opportunity was the economic crisis that occured after the 2008 financial crisis, which sowed widespread distrust in the banking system. The genesis block of Bitcoin even references the subsequent government bailouts of banks, "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.", highlighting the failures of traditional financial systems.

Lastly, the socio-technical systems in this context are pretty literal: rise of digital and more people coming online are wind into the sails of those working on cryptocurrencies.

You may start to see the topic of ‘transition thinking / investing’ come up in more places as high as governments / Blackrock which has $10 trillion assets under management.

If regimes are characterized by hierarchical structures, centralized control, and established legal and financial norms, then cryptocurrencies and DAOs represent spaces for experimenting with new forms of decentralized governance, financial transactions, and digital assets that challenge traditional systems.

Advanced Concepts and Theories

We live in a time where the only constant is change. Transition thinking continues to evolve as researchers and practitioners develop new insights and methodologies to understand and guide complex systemic changes. Here's a few more concepts as they're known in the real world:

1. Strategic Niche Management (SNM):

   • This approach focuses on nurturing niches through deliberate strategies, such as providing resources, creating supportive networks, and facilitating learning processes.

   • SNM aims to develop niche innovations until they are robust enough to influence or replace existing regimes.

2. Transition Management (TM):

   • Transition management involves a governance approach that aims to steer transitions through participatory processes, long-term visioning, and iterative experimentation.

   • TM seeks to align stakeholders, create shared visions, and develop pathways for sustainable transitions.

3. Dynamic Capabilities and Adaptive Capacity:

   • These concepts relate to an organization’s or society’s ability to sense changes, seize opportunities, and reconfigure resources to adapt to new circumstances.

   • Enhancing dynamic capabilities and adaptive capacity is crucial for managing transitions effectively.

For legacy organizations DAOs might still be too chaotic to properly wield through this turbulent period. If you're reading this, then you are likely on the fringes like me. If so, I suggest learning more about the Regen / DAO movements happening in crypto which share a lot of parallel ideas to these concepts. We started a book club also so if you want to chat us come through the M3 discord anytime.