Foreword

As the fifth ranked cryptocurrency exchange by CMC, Kucoin has had a pretty impressive year in 2021. In addition to its excellent performance in terms of number of users and trading volume, Kucoin has also delivered an equally impressive performance for new coin launches.

This report analyzes the overall performance of Kucoin's new coin launches by collecting and compiling data on the new coins launched in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Note: All analysis is based on data and not investment advice, so please refer to it with caution!

Research data description

1. 98KDAO mainly uses data such as [Opening Price] [Opening Date] [Day1 Closing Price] [Lowest Price] [Date of Lowest Price] [Highest Price] [Date of Highest Price] to examine the overall performance of the tokens after it launched on Kucoin.

2. In order to have a more comprehensive understanding of new token's performance, 98KDAO has compiled the following ten comparison angles.

   (1)Lowest price retracement relative to the opening price/day1 closing price

   (2)The time interval between the date of the lowest price against the opening date

   (3)The extent of the rise in the highest price against the opening/day 1 closing price

   (4)Interval between the date of occurrence of the highest price against the date of opening

   (5)Multiplier between highest price and lowest price

   (6)Time interval between the date of the highest price and the date of the lowest price

   (7)Order of the highest price and lowest price

   (8)Percentage increase on Day1 trading

   (9)First month up percentage

   (10)First month retracement ratio

Ⅰ: Lowest price retracement relative to the opening price/Day 1 closing price

1.1 The study of the lowest prices of the 108 tokens selected gave us the following data.

Against the opening price: mean: 22.8%; median: 15%

Against day1 closing price: mean: 72%; median: 55%

1.2 Conclusion:

1.2.1  Against the opening price there are 42% of the lowest price of the coins that is the opening price, the lowest price of the coins that fall below the issue price is concentrated in the range of -20% to -40%; that’s to say, even if it falls below the issue price, we can try to buy at a lower position and take profit.

1.2.2  Against the first day closing price; when the lowest price appears at the opening, we only have a 6% probability being able to buy at the opening price, introducing the first day closing price is the price we can definitely buy; and for the closing price, the average retracement range of the lowest price is close to 70%, that’s to say, with the closing price down 60% to 70%, we can also try to buy at a lower .This means that with a 60% to 70% drop in the closing price, it is possible to try to buy chips at a lower position and take profits.

Ⅱ. Research of the interval of lowest price occurrence date against the opening date

2.1 By studying the lowest price occurrence dates relative to the opening date interval for 108 coins selected, we obtained the following data.

Mean: 19 days; median: 10 days

2.2 conclusion

2.2.1   37% token’s lowest price appeared on the opening day, i.e. the opening price was the lowest price or broke on the opening day, but the probability of being able to buy at the opening price on the opening day was only 6%. The probability of the lowest price appearing within 30 days of opening day being over 73%.

Ⅲ. Highest price relative to opening price/day 1 closing price research

3.1 By calculating the rise in the highest price against the opening price for the 108 tokens selected, we obtain the following data.

Against the opening price: mean: 13x; median: 1x to 2x

Against Day1 closing price: mean: 200%; median: 60% to 80%

3.2 Conclusion

3.2.1,   The highest price against the average rise in the opening price is about 13 times, but the median value is concentrated in 1 to 2 times, indicating that the high multiples of the special case data on the overall impact of deviation, according to calculations within 4 times is a more reasonable level of valuation.

3.2.2,   The highest price against the first minute closing price can be a more intuitive reflection of the maximum return on the first day of intervention, the average multiple of the rise in about 2 times, the median value is 60% to 80%, from the data point of view, if in first day closing price to buy 65% ,you will get probability to profit 40% or more, there is an 82% probability to get 20% profile or more.

Ⅳ. Research of highest price occurrence date against opening date interval

4.1  By calculating the highest price occurrence date against the opening date interval for the 108 coins selected, we obtain the following data.

Mean: 6.7 days; median: 1 day

4.2 Conclusion

4.2.1   The same 37% of coins with the lowest price also have their highest price on the opening day, but the probability of the highest price occurring within 30 days is more than 96%, which means that the best time to sell a new token is within a month.

Ⅴ. Multiplier between highest and lowest price

5.1 By calculating the highest and lowest prices of 108 selected currencies, we got the following data

Mean: 7.6x; median: 3 to 4x

5.2 Conclusion

5.2.1.  From the data , the average value of the magnification between the highest and lowest price is about 7 times, while the median value is 3 to 4 times. The currencies below five times exceed 60%, so the lowest price is used as a reference for more than five times,which can be used as a reference interval for take profit.

Ⅵ. A study of the time interval between the highest price and the lowest price

6.1  By calculating the highest and lowest prices of 108 selected currencies, we got the following data

Mean: 20.6 days; median: 10 to 15 days

6.2 Conclusion

6.2.1  The probability of the highest price and the lowest price appearing on the opening day is 24%, and the probability that the highest price and the lowest price appear within 15 days is more than 55%. The best buying and selling point for the new currency transaction is the highest on the opening day or the lowest price Within 15 of the price appearing.

Ⅶ. Order of highest and lowest bids

7.1 By calculating the date of occurrence of the highest price and the date of the lowest price of the selected 108 currencies, we got the following data:

Average: 20.6 days; Median: 10-15 days

7.2 Conclusion

7.2.1.   From the statistical data, the probability of the lowest price appearing first is 44%, and the probability of the highest price appearing first is 56%; even if you can buy at the lowest price, the probability of selling at the highest price is even smaller;

7.2.2.   Excluding the data on the opening day (the lowest price on the opening day appears before the highest price), the probability of the lowest price appearing first is less than 20%, so the short-term best trading time period is on the first day of opening.

Ⅷ. The Study of Day1 Up Percentage of Newlist

8.1 Calculating the first day's increase rate of the selected 108 currencies, we got the following data:

A comparison of the first day rising on the mainstream exchanges is shown below:

8.2 Conclusion

8.2.1.   The rate of increase on the first day of new Kucoin [25%～50%] accounted for 44%, and the rate of [-25%～1005] range was 60%.

8.2.2.   The rate of breaks on the first day of Kucoin’s launch is 5%

8.2.3.   25% of Kucoin’s first-day increase is more than 200%

8.2.4.   From the comparison of mainstream exchanges, the worst performer is FTX, with 70% of the new coins rising less than 25% on the first day; Coinbase has the most stable performance, with 75% gains in the range of 0% to 25%; The best performer is Kucoin, 30% of the new coins rose more than 100% on the first day

Ⅸ. The Study of First Month Newlist Highest Up Percentage

9.1  By calculating the percentage of increase in the first month newlists by the selected 108 currencies, we got the following data:

A comparison of the first month rising on the mainstream exchanges is shown below:

9.2 Conclusion:

9.2.1.   The interval with the largest percentage increase in the first month is [100%～500%], the probability is 39%, and the probability of the interval [50%～500%] is 70%

9.2.2.   Among them, 11% of the currencies have the highest price in a month exceeding the opening price by 100 times

9.2.3.   From the comparison of exchanges, 11% of Kucoin's new coins will become 100x coins in the first month, ranking the highest among mainstream exchanges; First month increase of less than 50% for FTX over 45% new coins,which had the worst performance.

Ⅹ. First Month Pullback Percentage of Newlist Research

10.1  Based on the calculation of the highest retracement amplitude in the first month of the selected 108 currencies, we get the following data:

A comparison of the highest retracements within the first month newlisting on the mainstream exchanges is shown below:

10.2  Conclusion:

10.2.1    More than -10%’s are mostly concentrated within 40%

10.2.2   The highest callback ratio of Kucoin is within -10%, accounting for 53%, which is the best among mainstream exchanges; 30% of OKEx's new coins have a callback ratio of more than 50% in the first month, which is the worst performance among mainstream exchanges.

Summarize

1.  Compared with OKEx and FTX, the performance of Kucoin's newlisting is much better,and it is on par with Binance's newlisting performance.

2.  Kucoin's first day's newlisting rate was over 90%. In addition to Coinbase's close to 100% newlisting rate, Kucoin's newlisting rate is marvellous. (All the analysis here is based on the opening price. It does not mean that you can buy at the opening price. Exchanges often [open the set at high quotation. It’s just an analysis in the same dimension.)

3. Judging from the degree of data concentration, in a relatively ideal situation; within one month, the risk of a callback is -30%, and the return is over 200%, and the profit-loss ratio is very good.

The above are conclusions obtained by 98KDAO based on the preliminary analysis of the data. You can analyze whether there are investment opportunities based on the above results and formulate reasonable investment strategies.

Note: All data obtained in this report comes from Kucoin API data and announcement data. There is no guarantee that there will be no data errors.simultaneously, the analysis conclusions are not used as the magic wand for investment.

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