My Belated 2022 Predictions (Part I)

I see enormous potential this year for web3 commerce in sports and music.

In sports, NFTs are already very popular, lucrative and a relatively well-developed market compared to other industries. NBA TopShot, the upcoming NFL marketplace, and Sorare define this category, for the most part, at the moment. What’s common is that these platforms are league-owned and league-driven: teams and players have to abide by their rules, aren’t really involved in the product strategy, marketing or business operations, and might see a small passive revenue share or receive nothing at all.

I predict 2022 to be the year of “Team NFTs”.

Serotonin VP, Growth AJ Banon summarized the why like this: “Fan loyalty is strongest with the team first, players second, and league third.” There is simply too much revenue potential, too many innovative opportunities to engage and monetize fans in new and rewarding ways using IP and experiences that are beyond the league’s ownership or rights to control for NFTs not to break through with teams and players. 

I believe the core components of a killer Team NFT concept are as follows:

  • Player- and coach-driven (needs buy-in, but worth it)
  • Generative ‘pfp avatars’ of the players and coaches with a strong team-based narrative (origin story, glory days, local flavor, mascots, fight songs, traditions). 
  • ‘Fantasy-light’ reward mechanics (i.e. player/team real-life performance generates rewards for owners) coupled with fan-driven behavior like check-ins at virtual watch parties, real-life game attendances, retail purchases, etc. 
  • Token-gated or enhanced virtual fan forums, watch parties, and team appearances coupled with exclusive physical merchandise, events, and access.

My ultimate prediction is that several hugely successful team and player NFT projects will launch this year, setting up public controversy between leagues, teams, and players in terms of IP ownership and rights, revenue sharing, and possible angles toward joining forces in some way (i.e. collaboration / interoperability). 

The other area of NFT interest for me this year is music. 

A very small number of musicians have experimented with NFTs so far, and while some have been wildly successful, there is not much developed yet in terms of how best to productize music NFTs. There are startups forming, and some with strong signs of traction and growth, so the community wisdom is that music NFTs are going to blow up this year.

But what even is a music NFT? At the actual content, presentation and pricing levels of this question, there are no conventional answers today.

Meanwhile, as a growing number of mainstream consumers know and care about, centralized streaming platforms like Spotify require artists to generate tens or hundreds of millions of streams in order to earn a good living yet these payments are a fraction of the overall revenue generated, and the artists also get paid out months after everyone else (i.e. labels, studios, platform) have taken their cut. 

I predict 2022 to be the year of “Album NFTs”. 

A traditional album is a pressed vinyl record of ordered songs with titles and runtimes, sometimes packaged with show notes, making-of content, and – where we will innovate, especially - cover art. 

“Album NFTs” as I define them are a minted digital record of ordered songs with titles and runtimes, sometimes packaged with show notes, making-of content, community access and benefits (web3, duh!), and generative cover art! 

Generative art is experiencing a renaissance thanks to blockchain technology and NFTs because the original buyer (aka the minter) contributes the randomness at the point of purchase that dictates and reveals the artworks visual form. This means artists can create a generative design series capable of minting an unlimited number of unique mints that all share the same underlying visual DNA and smart contracts. In this case, it means that musicians can sell many copies of the same song or album, but each one will come with its own unique, inseparable and potentially rare work of art.

I believe the core components of a killer Album NFT concept are as follows:

  • An Album NFT is special because it’s an NFT that ‘owns’ other NFTs. In this case, owners of the Album NFT have a single token with its own metadata, storage and utility, but also ownership rights to an ordered list of individual ‘Song NFTs’ as well.
  • Each Song NFT is a numbered mint single from the album, and also gets its own metadata, storage and utility. Best of all, while every Song NFT buyer gets the same music file to listen to, they each also get their own uniquely generative cover art as well.
  • I believe the most attractive and successful form of generative cover art will be music-powered motion graphics (i.e. sound wave visualizer). This means in addition to other inputs designed by the artist (or provided by the buyer, another big idea!), the music’s rhythm, tempo, key, tone and other musical factors of the artist’s choosing will influence the unique visual outcome for each mint. Like having your own sound wave visualizer music video. With all the NFT physical displays going into people’s homes this year and beyond, imagine how beautiful a way to listen to an album in the background while making dinner than a syncopated visual music video of your very own!
  • But that’s not all! I mentioned Album NFTs ‘own’ Song NFTs, but also have their own metadata, storage and utility. This means artists can provide exclusive content and experiences to owners of their full albums versus individual songs. Furthermore this also means 1) people can earn access to “album-only benefits” by collecting individual songs over time, and 2) people who buy albums can choose to sell individual singles out from the Album NFT to third parties, but give up any album-only benefits in the process. 
  • One more thing! It wouldn’t have to be this way, but I think it would be amazing if owners of the album got access to a single continuous sound wave visualizer experience when choosing to listen to the album’s songs in order, end to end, and it would reveal some shared characteristics (a “golden thread”) tying all the visualizer themes from each song into a coherent and seamless masterwork. And remember, each Album NFT’s visual experience would be unique, and if even one Song NFT was sold, it would be lost forever. If the Album NFT is sold whole, however, then the visual experience would remain intact. 

Similar to sports, my ultimate prediction is that several major artists – some new, some established – attempt to pull their songs from Spotify and other major streaming platforms, instead opting to go direct to the fans with ‘Album NFTs’ and ‘Song NFTs’. This will set up public controversy between labels, studios, and contributors in terms of IP ownership and rights, revenue sharing, and possible angles toward joining forces in some way (i.e. collaboration / interoperability). 

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More predictions to come soon for Fashion, TV/Film, Events, and Education.

Let’s chat on Twitter: @matthewiles

Cover image: Presessence Volume 1 Album NFT by Domino.

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