The movement to take and terraform Mars represents more than a space endeavor; it's a commitment to human dynamism, ingenuity, and a vision of a future unbound by our earthly constraints.

Mars: More than Just A Strategic Outpost

Mars beckons as a strategic outpost—but more than that, it is a symbol of infinite potential:

1. Gateway to the Asteroid Belt: Mars's proximity to the asteroid belt opens untold opportunities for resource extraction.

2. Embracing Innovation: The development of Mars showcases our technological prowess and boundless creativity.

Addressing Radiation Risks: The Role of Decentralized Science

The understanding and management of risks can benefit greatly from a more nuanced approach—take for example the little-understood but highly illustrative example of radiation risk.

While you may or may not have heard of Sieverts, I doubt you’ve ever really gone down the rabbit hole on just what it is about radiation they measure. Happily, I’ve done it for you, so you don’t have to.

The TLDR looks like this:

1. Curries are the measure of ionizing radiation emitted from a source of radiation.

2. Rads measure how much ionizing radiation has been absorbed by an exposed mass—but does not attempt to estimate what effect that will have on a mass that happens to be a living, breathing human being.

3. Sieverts attempt to condense these two factors while attempting to account for variations in radiation type and normalize the hypothetical risks posed to humans by exposure to ionizing radiation. It further attempts to account for the variable radiation exposure tolerances of different biological systems (lung tissue vs brain tissue, for example). It additionally models risk on a linear scale across all detectable levels of radiation. Since it does all that using data derived from statistical modeling techniques, the NGO ( 🚩) that originally defined it did so as “a unit intended to represent the stochastic ( 🚩🚩) health risk of ionizing radiation, which is defined as the probability of causing radiation-induced cancer and genetic damage based on an assumed linear no-threshhold ( 🚩🚩🚩) risk model.”

While it is a serviceable metric when used to estimate the dosage at which the visible effects of acute radiation poisoning will take effect following high-dose short-term exposure events (nuclear fallout exposure in the 24 hours following the bombing of Hiroshima, or a reactor fire at a nuclear plant that breaks containment and vents superheated radioactive gas into a staffed zone a la 3 Mile Island or Chernobyl), it is far less clear how well it estimates risk when it comes to long term cumulative exposure at lower doses. To see this in action, one need not go far beyond the quanta to examine the qualia. Here are just two illustrative examples of many—see if you can spot the problem.

In the airline industry, exposure limits measured in sieverts have led to unnecessary flight delays, as crews were restricted by guidelines seemingly misaligned with actual risk levels. Meanwhile, in Talesh Mahalleh, residents experience radiation levels dramatically exceeding those deemed safe for flight crews by sievert-quota-based standards, without noticeable harm. These two examples—when juxtaposed—allude to what rapidly harmonizes into a common theme the deeper you go down the radiation rabbit hole—the need for trust and precision in radiation assessment. Only with concrete measurements captured and published in provably tamper-proof and influence-proof ways can we hope correct course. And correct course we must—lest our window of opportunity to rise up the Kardashev scale be slammed shut by a toxic stew of precautionary-principle-addled safetyism, reactionary Kazinsky/Malthus/Erlich-tinged eco-luddism and (plausibly spite-motivated) bureaucratic heel-draggery.

Enter decentralized science—a movement that aims to build public infrastructure for funding, creating, reviewing, crediting, storing, and disseminating scientific knowledge fairly and equitably using the Web3 stack.

Take, for hypothetical example, a mechanism by which tamper-resistant microsensors owned by any person (or DAO) with a car, a watch, a smartphone or even swarms of globe-circumnavigating nano drones (once we finally get RTAP superconductors nailed down…alas not yet) recording rad exposure—measurable with physics-grounded instruments not subject to the kludgy hubris of the sievert—on a public, permissionless, open blockchain protocol. With that kind of system, we might establish an unprecedented level of transparency and trust in data that can’t be spun to suit one side or another in any kind of scientism-fueled political football game (because sieverts are essentially a poor/conflict-begging public health policy tool. While rads are either measured or not, and are either deadly or not at the emitted level (measured by how much radiation of a given type is actually measurably absorbed).

Let’s face facts—the risk of organized misanthropy fighting to hobble and weaken the majority of the human species is no mere hypothetical concern in the world of 2023. This platform, if we dare commit to build it, will equip us to take a tailored approach to safety, empowering individual responses and local variations, paving the way for an adaptable, evidence-based foundation upon which to go boldly forward, skyward, and ever further outward.

And while this one example may seem underwhelming to you—(come on, Greg, sieverts??? Really?? You’re an ADHD dick)—don’t be fooled. It is one drop in an ocean of newly-possible improvements that in sum will be nothing less than revolutionary to how human beings approach the scientific enterprise. True, it has the potential to transform radiation risk management. Also true, the broader scientific landscape.

TLDR? Forget the second Enlightenment. If we play our cards right, we will one day think of this as the spark that ignited the second Renaissance.

The Asteroid Belt: A New Frontier of Prosperity

But I digress. The grand vision extends far beyond the slaying of the Sievert-monster. In truth; it extends far beyond Mars. Here are just a few places I believe it is our true manifest destiny as a species to go, should we dare to reach and discover the true limitlessness of the reach of our grasp:

1. Resource Exploration: The asteroid belt awaits, laden with resources to fuel our cosmic journey.

2. If we tow the right pieces of it into orbit around Mars and Earth (for starters), we can simultaneously ensure access to now-rare resources (An Everest-sized diamond? Enough gold to fill in Lake Erie if we melted it down? Rare earth elements in need of a rename they are so available? That’s just three asteroids in the nearly 1.7 million bigger than a kilometer—and we still don’t have a reliable count all the sub-km-sized ones.

3. Once we hollow them out, what do we do? Zone for heavy industrial of course! You can’t destroy the climate if your smokestacks are venting far above the atmosphere, after all.

4. Spurring Cosmic Exploration: Mars's strategic position facilitates our expansion into the galaxy. And it is there we will set our sites next—either through advances in propulsion technology, or—far more imminent and likely—advances in the science of aging (specifically with the purpose of ending it). Seriously read that. And when you’re done check the date on it. And then start reading the papers that cite it. Fans of inevitable death in under a century are not going to like what’s about to be on the mass market. (Needless to say—I’m a lifeist, not a deathist (if you hadn’t already guessed).

Conclusion

The path to Mars, informed not merely by our evolving understanding of radiation risks and our readiness to adapt, exemplifies our collective capacity to innovate and explore. We stand at the cusp of a new era, equipped with a diverse array of tools that reflect our faith in human potential and ingenuity. Mars is more than a destination; it's a testament to what we can achieve, a beacon guiding us towards a universe filled with promise.

As we pioneer new territories, embrace novel technologies, and unlock the secrets of our universe, we are not merely reaching for the stars. We are embarking on a journey that symbolizes an unending quest for knowledge, growth, and mastery over our cosmic surroundings.

Some have framed this ambition in terms of levels or scales that chart our progression, such as the Kardashev Scale, a fascinating idea that puts our current achievements into a cosmic perspective. Yet, these notions are merely symbolic of a broader aspiration: not merely to utilize the full potential of our home planet and beyond—but to carry the seeds of life with us as far as we are able to go. This is more than a grand idea worth pursuing single-mindedly (though it is certainly that). It is a grand ideal worth believing in wholeheartedly. If there is to be a purpose to our existence, let it be this. I defy you to come up with a better one.

Our endeavors on Mars and the exploration of the asteroid belt are not just scientific and technological milestones; they are affirmations of our place in the cosmos, declarations that we are ready and eager to embrace our destiny as a spacefaring civilization.

In the quest for Mars and beyond, we acknowledge our current achievements while fervently pursuing greater horizons. This vision is more than an exploration; it's a reflection of our potential, a path toward realizing our boundless capacity to shape the universe—and to do all that is in our capacity to bring it to life. We need only decide to make it happen. And I know I’m not the only one who believes that we will.