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Happy New Year 2024! In the last article of 2023, I invited everyone to participate in the satisfaction survey at the end. If you haven't filled it out yet, please take a few minutes to let us know what went well or areas that need improvement in the past year, helping Blocktrend to perform better in 2024.

In addition, the publication calendar for this year has been released. The most significant change is that, in preparation for the arrival of a newborn at home, I will adjust the publication schedule to one article per week (published on Tuesdays) and one podcast episode per week (published on Wednesdays). The rest of the schedule, including sick leave, national holidays, and breaks, remains unchanged. Let's get into the main topic.

For the first article of 2024, I've compiled three major events expected to occur in the coming year and how to prepare for the upcoming bull market in the cryptocurrency space.

Future Mail

I don't know if any of you have ever tried writing a letter to your future self.

I did it once in college as a class assignment. Initially, I thought a semester was just 18 weeks, and how much could life really change? So, I casually wrote a passage just to fulfill the requirement. It wasn't until the end of the semester when I received the letter I had sent to myself that I realized consequences had caught up with me. In my letter, I promised to treat my girlfriend to a celebratory dinner if I were lucky enough to "stop flying solo" As a result, my living expenses for that week were almost entirely spent on that dinner. Since then, I've learned that you can't just write anything casually in a future email 🤣.

Recently, there have been many predictions about developments in 2024 circulating on the internet. Some of the content seems a bit far-fetched, so I thought about writing a letter to my future self a year from now, forcing myself to be accountable for the content. This letter not only records my current feelings about 2024, but it will also allow me to review my thoughts at the end of the year and see what changes have occurred. Here's what I wrote to my future self.

Annual Highlights

Most people are optimistic about 2024. Many media outlets and investment institutions predict that BTC will rise to at least $60,000 or even $100,000, and ETH will reach a historic high of $8,000. This creates a positive mood. Regardless of the exact numbers, the consensus is that 2024 will be a record-breaking year, with almost no one believing that cryptocurrency prices will be lower than they are now. Even predicting that prices will remain the same seems too conservative in the current market atmosphere.

One reason for such optimism is the missed beauty of it all. Initially, everyone agreed that 2023 was the darkest year, and many investors deleted apps and focused on hibernating until the end of the year. Only when they looked back did they realize that cryptocurrency prices had quietly risen throughout the year. Additionally, with SOL prices skyrocketing over five times in just two months, people are itching to get in but can't find the right opportunity, giving rise to various "I knew it" FOMO mentalities.

But more importantly, at the beginning of 2024, there are at least three major pieces of good news in the market: the Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin halving, and the Ethereum Cancun upgrade.

There are rumors that the U.S. government will soon approve a Bitcoin ETF. This means institutional investors can finally enter the market without technical or regulatory constraints, bringing in new funds that could drive up prices.

The second reason for optimism is that Bitcoin halving is coming again! For cryptocurrency investors, hearing about Bitcoin halving is as exciting as someone saying the God of Wealth is coming. This is the fourth halving in Bitcoin's history, expected to occur in April 2024.

Bitcoin's production rate decreases approximately every four years, coincidentally aligning with the bull and bear cycles of the cryptocurrency market1. According to historical data, buying some Bitcoin on the day of halving has resulted in pleasant surprises a year later. In the first halving in 2012, prices rose 80 times a year later. The second halving in 2016 saw a fourfold increase in prices a year later. The third halving in 2020 also led to a 6.5-fold increase, soaring from $8,600 to $55,901 in a year.

People expect that, following the fourth halving, the God of Wealth will also arrive as scheduled.

The last optimistic reason is that Ethereum's Cancun upgrade2 will also happen this year. For users, the Cancun upgrade can make the already relatively inexpensive second-layer networks of Ethereum, such as Arbitrum and Optimism, even cheaper, ranging from 10 times to 100 times cheaper.

As an example at the time of writing, the transfer costs on these two chains are currently $0.08 (NTD 2.4) and $0.04 (NTD 1.2) respectively. If it could become 100 times cheaper, not only would users no longer need to consider transaction fees, but developers could finally showcase their skills on the blockchain, developing more non-financial applications.

Looking forward from early 2024, the future seems bright. It's as if all you need to do is buy some coins and wait for a natural fortune a year later. However, I dare not be so optimistic. Just like holding BTC from 2010 to 2024 may seem easy at first glance, those who have experienced it firsthand know it's not as simple as buying and holding. If 2024 turns out as the market expects, to be a record-breaking year, here are my preparations for the upcoming bull market, hoping to help myself and everyone navigate the market's ups and downs.

How to Prepare for the Bull Market

Past bull markets in the cryptocurrency space have three major characteristics: significant volatility, numerous airdrops, and a wealth of confusing information.

Significant Volatility

During a bull market, cryptocurrency prices fluctuate dramatically compared to bear markets. In the 2021 bull market, for instance, BTC plummeted from its all-time high of $60,000, only to rise to a new historic high a few months later. Some might say they'll wait for a significant dip in the bull market to enter and buy at a lower price. Regardless of the discomfort of watching prices rise without taking action, even waiting for a major dip doesn't guarantee that the market won't face a downturn.

Another approach is dollar-cost averaging. Currently, I automatically purchase $3.5 worth of BTC every day, roughly equivalent to 100 NTD. The small amount makes it easier to continue, and even during market volatility, there's no immediate pressure to take action. However, the advantage of this method is also its drawback – the accumulation of assets is slow. Even if prices double a year later, sudden wealth won't be realized. Nevertheless, as I'm not adept at short-term trading and often end up buying during a dip and selling when prices rise, this method suits me better.

Numerous Airdrops

The second characteristic of a bull market is the abundance of airdrops, such as the latest (reliable) airdrop activities this week. Airdrops are meant to encourage people to take action, with rewards given to active participants afterward. However, usually, only scam gang spend money on advertising, fearing people might miss their carefully designed "airdrop activities." Recently, platforms like X are filled with fraudulent advertisements claiming that MetaMask is issuing MASK tokens, with scam links everywhere to trick users into connecting their wallets.

Every time you claim an airdrop, it comes with risks, and it's not worth losing more than gaining for the sake of claiming an airdrop. A better approach is to cautiously participate while ensuring asset isolation. This means dividing assets into a wallet and a vault, where the former holds small amounts and the latter holds deposits. Airdrops are typically distributed to hot wallet addresses with more on-chain activity, and losing small amounts in the wallet is less painful. For airdrops whose authenticity cannot be confirmed, it's better to give up than to take unnecessary risks.

The Information is Chaotic

But where can you verify authenticity? In a bull market, information is chaotic, and everyone needs to find a reliable community for themselves. If you're unsure whom to approach, Blocktrend is a good choice. Blocktrend readers are a discerning group when it comes to information sources, and they have diverse interests in different ecosystems. If you're not confident about online information, asking questions on Discord may help you find someone to provide answers.

Bull markets will bring forth many new topics, such as DeFi, NFTs, and DAOs. Only those who have experienced them firsthand know which are fleeting trends and which are solid innovative applications. This year, Blocktrend will continue to organize member gatherings. Unlike previous gatherings focused on sharing, this year I plan to collaborate with reliable Web3 projects and introduce hands-on activities during the events. This way, participants can not only get to know each other through the gatherings but also get hands-on experience with new tools.

Knowledge requires long-term accumulation. However, when a bull market arrives, knowledge not only helps you navigate the market's ups and downs but also adds value to your finances

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