As we enter a new era of the internet, it is important to understand the timeline of mainstream adoption.

In this article, we will explore where we currently are on the timeline of Web3 adoption. We'll analyze the significant distinctions between Web2 and Web3 adoption, and spotlight several companies and brands that are making substantial headway in onboarding new users to the space.

Article Outline

• From Recruitment to Fruition

• Web2 vs Web3

• Web2 Timelines

• Web3 Timelines

• Applying Timeframes

• Closing Remarks

From Recruitment to Fruition

In order to truly understand the timeline for Web3 adoption, it is crucial to analyze the current timeframes for Web2 as a reference point. This means exploring the duration between a company's recruitment stage for executives and the point of fruition. We can use this as a guide to understand Web3 adoption timelines.

The rapid pace of change in the digital world today has made it critical for companies to innovate quickly. In 2022, 75% of executives considered innovation as their top priority.

One effective method for monitoring a company's trajectory is to examine its executive board, particularly its CEO. CEOs have shown to have a statistically significant influence on a company's innovation and performance. Additionally, the selection of new CEOs significantly influences institutional renewal. Significant changes in leadership can have an effect on a company’s growth curve and trajectory within a 4-6 year timeframe.

To examine a company's trajectory, we can also explore any shifts or new initiatives the company may be exploring, such as job postings for new domains.

Meta (Formerly Facebook)

For instance, in October 2021, Facebook rebranded itself as Meta, and shortly after, launched its metaverse world, Horizon Worlds, in December 2021. In November 2022, it then inaugurated its digital collectible store on Instagram, indicating a shift in the company's direction. However, Meta has recently announced that it will pause its development for the time being.

Amazon

Amazon advertised its initial job opening for a digital currency and blockchain specialist in July 2021. The tech behemoth recently announced that it will be launching its NFT marketplace in April 2023, almost two years after posting the job listing.

These figures appear to correspond with a mean duration of two years for a company (of this size) to progress from the inception of an idea to its culmination.

Web2 vs Web3

The widespread adoption of Web3 might look a lot like it did for the internet, with many calling the internet a fad after the 2000 dot-com bubble burst.

However, evaluating the performance of an NFT company could be somewhat challenging. 

Unlike a conventional business that can measure its success based on yearly earnings, NFT companies function similarly to public companies, where the success of their project is determined by the overall market sentiment, which might be reflected in its floor price.

Moreover, unlike numerous large corporations, Web3 companies have an advantage in that they don't have to deal with red tape - excessive bureaucracy or strict adherence to official rules and formalities. As a result, they are able to move more quickly and make necessary changes in a more timely manner.

This also implies that it will probably take longer for Web2 companies to embrace new technologies compared to Web3 startups that are native to crypto. Let’s dive into some examples of recent developments we’ve seen over the past years.

Web2 Timelines

Returning to some of the examples we mentioned earlier, Meta's digital collectibles store on Instagram was launched 13 months after it rebranded to "Meta." In fact, we could go back even further to May 2018 when they posted their first job listing for a blockchain research initiative. This means that it took Meta over 3 years to rebrand and a total of 4 and a half years to launch its NFT marketplace.

This potentially caused Meta to miss out on the NFT boom in early '22 and subsequently receive underwhelming outcomes when it finally launched its marketplace. This was made evident by its recent announcement of halting the development of its NFT marketplace.

In fact, Meta launched its NFT marketplace at the lowest volume month for NFTs in 2022.

If we look back to Amazon, it took them 21 months, almost 2 years after their initial job posting for a specialist in digital currency and blockchain before launching their NFT marketplace.

Spotify’s first blockchain integration came in February 2023, which was 11 months after they posted their first job listings (March 2022) for a senior manager of Innovation with expertise in Web3 and a senior blockchain back-end engineer.

Reddit posted their initial job listing for a Senior Backend Engineer for an NFT Platform in September 2021, 10 months prior to the launch of their digital collectibles store in July 2022.

This leaves us with a ballpark average of 24 months, or 2 years for major companies to integrate new technology.

Web3 Timelines

Conversely, we have witnessed a few instances of Web3 enterprises pivoting at a significantly faster pace and achieving notable outcomes relatively swiftly.

Pudgy Penguins

For instance, Pudgy Penguins experienced a decline when the original project founder failed to deliver and drained the project's funds. However, in April 2022, Luca Schnetzler, a successful entrepreneur operating a multimillion-dollar venture capital firm, acquired the brand from its previous owner. After this acquisition, the floor price of Pudgy Penguins shot up, accompanied by an upsurge in market sentiment.

Following the acquisition, it only took the team 4 months to announce the Pudgy Toys Lineup in August 2022. They then announced their Sotheby's auction and Art Basel Meetup within three more months. Within a 7-month time period, Pudgy Penguins' floor price soared from 1 ETH (valued at around $1,600 USD at the time) to an all-time high of 7 ETH (valued at around $8,750 USD at the time), a 7x increase.

0N1 Force

Another recent example of an NFT collection acquisition is 0n1 Force, which was recently in decline before being purchased in February 2023 by a collective of crypto industry veterans led by blockchain investment firm Old Fashioned Research (OFR). Similar to the acquisition of Pudgy Penguins, the floor price of 0n1 Force NFTs surged twofold from 1 ETH to an all-time high of 2 ETH.

Although we are yet to see what the future of 0n1 Force holds, their price action thus far has been comparable to that of Pudgy Penguins. Additionally, the team has already unveiled their strategy, dubbed "0N1 FORCE REBORN: SEASON 1," just three days after the acquisition.

Would Web2 companies then be better suited to acquire Web3-native companies instead?

Nike x RTFKT

In December 2021, we saw Nike, a Web2 giant, acquire RTFKT, a Web3-native apparel brand, for an alleged estimate of $1 billion USD. This announcement resulted in the Clone X, RTFKT's flagship NFT collection, experiencing a surge in floor price from 4 ETH (valued at around $16,000 USD at the time) to 15.5 ETH (valued at around $48,000 USD at the time), before ultimately reaching an all-time high of 19 ETH in April 2022 (valued at around $57,000 USD at the time).

However, the current floor price has decreased by 82% from its all time high due to a shift in market sentiment among community members who were disappointed with RTKFT's latest merchandise release. 

Nevertheless, other prominent NFT collections have also suffered considerable declines in value, with Bored Ape Yacht Club falling by 60% and Azuki by 55% from their all time highs due to the overall negative macro market sentiment.

Despite their ups and downs, RTFKT currently maintains a stronghold over the Web3 fashion industry, possessing 80% of the market share. This could imply that purchasing Web3 enterprises might be a viable option for Web2 giants to consider.

Applying Timeframes

According to McKinsey & Company, in 2000, the S&P 500's average corporation age was 85 years. However, today, the median age is less than 33 years. 

It is expected that by 2027, around 75% of the current S&P 500 companies will have vanished, and the median age will be 12 years. This means that most companies in the S&P 500 index will have been founded in 2015, indicating that the future’s biggest corporations have already been established.

Taking this into account, what established technologies have attracted the interest of executives recently? Three technologies that stand out are cryptocurrency, AI, and the metaverse, all of which have been widely discussed in recent years. Numerous companies have taken action to innovate in these fields or attempt to keep up with these technologies.

Pokemon has recently advertised a job vacancy for a person with "deep knowledge" in Web3, NFTs, and the metaverse.

Sony Interactive Entertainment has recently submitted a patent application that deals with NFT frameworks for the transfer and utilization of digital assets across various game platforms.

Amazon plans to launch its NFT marketplace in April 2023.

Meanwhile, Reddit has been concurrently developing its NFT marketplace and has successfully onboarded over 8 million users to date.

Numerous large corporations are actively making progress and innovating in the Web3 industry. 

Based on our earlier assessments, we can anticipate that we will see a growing number of companies launching products that utilize blockchain technology.

However, for them to excel in an agile, dynamic, fast moving space they will need to learn to ship products and enhance the bureaucracy or be left behind by innovative web3 brands.

Closing Remarks

TL;DR

Here are the summarized points made throughout this article:**
**

• Innovation is a top priority for 75% of executives, and monitoring a company's trajectory can involve examining the CEO's influence, shifts in direction, and new initiatives. Examples of companies like Meta, Amazon, Spotify, and Reddit indicate a mean duration of two years for progress from idea to fruition.

• The adoption of Web3 may face similar skepticism as the internet did after the 2000 dot-com bubble burst. Evaluating the success of NFT companies is challenging as their project's success is determined by market sentiment, reflected in floor prices. However, Web3 companies have an advantage as they don't face the same red tape as large corporations, allowing for more agility in decision-making. This could lead to faster adoption of new tech for Web3 startups compared to Web2 companies, as seen in recent developments.

• Meta's launch of its NFT marketplace took 4 and a half years after its job postings from 2018. This delay caused it to miss out on the early 2022 NFT boom and receive underwhelming results upon launching. Amazon, Spotify, and Reddit also took about two years from job postings to NFT marketplace launches, indicating a ballpark average of 24 months for major companies to integrate new technology.

• Web3 companies and Web2 giants adopt new technology at varying speeds, with Web3 companies having an advantage in being able to pivot quickly. The success of NFT companies can be hard to measure, given their dependence on overall market sentiment. However, recent examples such as Pudgy Penguins show that a Web3 company is able to pivot and shift market sentiment in a matter of months.

• The median age of companies in the S&P 500 has decreased significantly, with the majority of future big corporations being established today. Executives have taken an interest in cryptocurrency, AI, and the metaverse, with companies such as Pokemon, Sony, Amazon, and Reddit developing NFT marketplaces or seeking expertise in related fields. This indicates that there will likely be an increasing number of companies launching blockchain-based products within the next 1-2 years.

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