It’s hard to believe but not entirely incomprehensible I would be writing this while Hurricane Milton barrels down on Florida as a Category 5 storm. The numbers from Hurricane Helene haven’t even been tallied. My friend Preston at Rich Hill Farms hasn’t even grasped the damage, let alone accounted for it. How do you value 50 years of gravel on a road that’s no longer there? How do you value 1000 fence posts that have vanished? Does it account for the posts, or the layout, design, and installation? It took 3 generations of people to get all those posts in the ground - let alone to do it the way the land (and livestock) intended.

Have we thought about the hay that washed away or will be lost to rot? The moisture levels lead to bacteria, mold, and fungus - all producing mycotoxins that are harmful to livestock. That hay can’t be consumed. How does one account for all the energy it took to get those hayfields to produce? Do the farmers get reimbursed for those inputs or just the cost per bail? Do they get reimbursed for the silage they’ll need to provide to overwinter? What impact will that have on our beef industry?

What about the lost revenues? Agritourism will be non-existant this year. As I watched Wilson Creek crest and spill over, I saw thousands upon thousands of pumpkins floating downstream. The U-pick business generally accounts for the lion's share of the revenue. It’s an experience and a product so it allows these farmers a means to better balance sheets. The Ashe County Corn Maze and Pumpkin Festival brought in thousands of visitors. The maze was totaled.

We see floating cars. We see damaged buildings. It’s not hard to quantify the loss of personal property in terms of asset value - but what about the real cost? What about the stress this puts on families and communities who were already on the edge? How do we measure beyond the insurance policy?

I certainly don’t have the answers, but I do know this:

We can’t continue to expect different results if we continue normalizing reactive systems. Some preventative maintenance is required. These are not ‘normal’ storms but the intensity and frequency are increasingly normal. Policies need to be updated. Resiliency needs to be cooked back into the recipe and systems need to change.

While we’re talking about it…

Climate change is showing. Increased surface temperatures (warming) is producing more water vapor (greenhouse gas) which is making fatter clouds. Increased humidity impacts upper atmospheric wind currents which become less effective at moving dense clouds - resulting in slower storms and higher precipitation totals. Our impervious surfaces continue to diminish (for a host of reasons including hydrophobic soil structure and human development). Human behavior (in part) plays an important role in the hydrologic cycle - one of the many natural systems that is misbehaving. Maybe she’s reacting? Maybe she’s pissed? Maybe we should ask ourselves what we can do.

We can’t stop #Milton. We’re not even close to being done cleaning up after #Helene. Prevention has to come in a different form. Building science, coupled with better planning and zoning and new accountability partnerships has to be formed. We have to build resilience into the systems that inform extreme drought, freeze, winter storms, wildfires, floods, tropical cyclones, and severe storms.

✔ Better data leads to better planning.

✔ Better planning leads to better building.

✔ Better building leads to improved resilience.

✔ We need to start considering systems over symptoms.

📏You can’t manage what you can’t measure 📏

Godspeed Florida. We see you. 🌎

Here are some resources if you’re interested: c2es resources.org USGS-STN NGWMN National Centers for Environmental Information

To memorialize some of the small towns I’ve been trying to spread awareness for: Lansing, NC Damascus, VA Creeper Trail Wilson Creek Drone

No song pairing today.