“This post is taking part in the Devconflict x Kiwi writing contest”

At Devcon 2024, Devconflict hosted 14 speakers to hopefully resolve the spiciest debates in the blockchain industry. One of them was whether crypto needs to onboard the next 1B or the next 1M users. Let’s use the internet as a small case study. In the early days of the internet, especially during the read only phase and before social media apps, the discussions was largely centered around the smaller, more experienced users on platforms like Stack overflow. Overtime, the continuous exposure to the technologies and constant conversations surrounding it led to a shift in focus - the large groups. Hence Facebook and the plethora of applications widely used emerged globally.

For crypto, this debate is fundamentally about growth strategy: should builders focus on getting a massive, mainstream user base immediately at the expense of the blockchain or to focus on a smaller, more experienced users to ensure integrity and long-term success?

Remco Bloemen of Worldcoin and Vadim Koleoshkin of Zerion were the panelists and here are the core arguments from their talks;

1. Remco supports onboarding 1B users and highlighted Whatsapp’s secure messaging and how it has acquired over a billion users. He believes blockchain should follow the same path to achieve the mainstream adoption dream. Sadly, most of the time, great products and great teams end up having just a small group of users and never hit the level of adoption desired.

   PGP (Pretty Good Privacy) is a good example of the above - the project took off and was dope at first but because of its technicality, they weren’t able to make it accessible for non-natives. Today, everybody uses email and Whatsapp which run similar protocols because of their ease of usage.

   Simply put, when dapps have a great UX, it removes/reduces the cognitive load of using them and in return, users are empowered to do more complex activities. So builders should make their apps accessible to the average person on the street and not just crypto experts.

2. Vadim takes the 1M users counterargument stating that dapps should be meaningful to specific users and not as one-size-fits-all solutions. According to him, he prefers focusing on smaller audiences because you can easily talk to them, understand their needs and precisely build tools to solve them. Eg: building for degens, then altcoin traders, then NFT traders and artists and eventually incorporating the needs of more individuals and businesses.

   He also argued that the apps that have gotten a billion users in Web2 are social media apps, namely Facebook, TikTok, Google, Chrome, Google Maps, Gmail, and so on. Currently, blockchain social apps aren’t adequate for that level of scaling. Telegram is the only crypto app where there is almost a billion users and that is due to the TON ecosystem. That said, the silver lining is that we’re competing not just within the crypto bubble but in other industries for efficiency and revenue.

Moving on, they both agree that if you have 10 million users to 100 million users, you can consider your project mainstream in crypto. That said, what brings these numbers? Is it the simplification of the product or proper distribution that engages and pushes them to use it more?

Like Remco shares, I agree it is more of a mix of both than one of the above. How? The digital revolution has always been about perfect timing and infrastructure alignment. Successful tech platforms don't just emerge randomly; they strategically position themselves at the intersection of technological capability and user readiness.

Consider the blockchain ecosystem's pioneers:

• Coinbase: Launched in 2012 when Bitcoin was emerging, making crypto accessible before mainstream understanding of Bitcoin and crypto

• Binance: Founded in 2017, rapidly scaled by solving key cryptocurrency exchange challenges attracting both casual and serious crypto enthusiasts

• Solana: Emerged in 2020, addressing blockchain scalability when Ethereum faced network congestion demonstrating how new platforms can solve critical infrastructure problems

• Uniswap: Pioneered decentralized exchange models in 2018, reimagining token swapping proving that breakthrough technologies don't just improve existing systems - they can create new paradigms

So, is crypto ready for its 1B+ application?

No. Not yet anyway and here’s why:

Ethereum's User Landscape: A Nuanced Perspective

According to a crypto market report by Crypto.com, global crypto owners were 617 million by the first half of 2024. This statistic, originally highlighted by [Mac Budkowski] in [Don’t try to onboard the next billion users to Ethereum, here's a better way], reveals that only 136 million (22%) own/hold ETH.

Etherscan's data unveils an even more intricate user behavior pattern. Approximately 500,000 daily active addresses suggest a sophisticated yet limited engagement ecosystem. Most ETH holders aren't daily transactors but represent a diverse spectrum of participation—from passive investors to curious explorers.

These statistics show we are not at the level of onchain activity we desire. Yet, we shouldn’t loose hope nor keep waiting for builders to build the perfect dapp. This fragmented engagement isn't a weakness but a rich opportunity for targeted innovation. Each user segment represents a potential entry point into broader blockchain ecosystem participation. So what should we do?

Solving the Fundamental Problems

There are a bunch of hard and fundamental problems blocking adoption right now. What do people do when they don't see a way out of a hard problem? They churn because they’re either disappointed or don’t want the responsibility of figuring things out. This is true for any technology, not just crypto and the way out is by building “Killer apps” that users really need and can only be used with an existing particular technology.

For Google, it was Gmail, Google maps, Google Search, Chrome, Docs/Drive, Youtube between 2004 - 2008. The nail on the coffin was in 2005 when Google acquired Android Inc., the startup developing mobile operating systems. By 2007, Google had fully integrated Android and it was an open-source operating system. The move was genius because:

This resulted in the "Google Mobile Services" (GMS) ecosystem, which includes the above mentioned apps. These apps were revolutionary at the time yet simple to use. To access any of them, you needed an online identity; your Google account. You also needed WiFi or an internet connection, a smartphone and basic knowledge of each app. With the online ID, if you wanted to find a location or watch a cute dog video or search the perfect birthday gift, you clicked a bunch of uncomplicated buttons. In fact, apart from Gmail and Docs/Drive, you could use the other apps without a Google account while getting efficient results.

According to Mac Budkowski’s thesis, “The blockchain (Ethereum) is a new, general-purpose, world computer like an Android phone or PC. It doesn’t need one app targeting 1 billion users. What Ethereum needs is 100s of apps targeting 100k-10 million > users.”

Early adopters rarely adopt technology through its most complex use cases. Instead, they're drawn by specific, compelling use cases that resonate with their immediate interests and needs.

Consider these blockchain use cases:

• DeFi platforms addressing traditional banking limitations

• Web3 gaming ecosystems offering true digital asset ownership

• Blockchain-based supply chain solutions providing unprecedented transparency

• Tokenized real estate platforms democratizing property investment

The above insight isn't about creating massive, generic platforms, but developing hundreds of specialized, meticulously crafted applications. When each project targets serving a subset of one million users and their needs, that’s when more adoption ensues because users are exploring blockchain's potential through personalized, low-friction experiences.

The Strategic Dilemma: Focused vs. Massive Adoption

The "Tyranny of the Marginal User" represents a critical product development challenge. When brands attempt to create universally appealing products, they often compromise their core value proposition.

Statistical evidence suggests a counterintuitive approach: focusing on one million dedicated users yields more sustainable success overtime than chasing billion-user platforms. Specialized products can:

• Develop deep user understanding

• Provide exceptional, tailored experiences

• Generate passionate user communities

• Iterate rapidly based on focused feedback

The blockchain ecosystem's rapid evolution means no single trend will guarantee massive adoption. Success lies not in predicting the future, but in creating flexible, user-centric experiences and interfaces that can adapt to emerging technological and user behaviors. For instance, crypto newbies download Metamask everyday, onboard, save their seed phrases and switch networks to use their favorite dapps. Users sign up on Binance and take out time to complete KYC.

Mac best explains it. 👇

Bottom line is: Users are willing to jump through ANY UX hurdles if the value they expect is higher than the time, energy and brain-power they need to spend on an activity. That said, of course your app’s UX should be great as Remco suggests. Improve UX if need be, while exponentially increasing the value EXTRACTED from your app.